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rssThe First Requirement for Success
“Sun Tzu said if you sit by the river long enough, you’ll see the bodies of your enemies float by. The key is “long enough.” If you live long enough, you have to be the survivor. When I was a kid, we didn’t have the video games you have today, so we used to listen to comedy records. One of the greatest ones was Mel Brooks doing the 2000 year old man. Carl Reiner says to him, “how did you get to be the world’s oldest man?” And he says, “Simple. Don’t die.” How do you get to be the world’s oldest investor? The answer is don’t crap out.
“So if you look at distressed debt where we started in 1988, I could tell you who our number one competitor was in every year through 1995 and not one is a main competitor today. And it’s not because of what we did; all we did is perform consistently. They crapped out. It sounds simplistic to say, but the first requirement for success is survival…”
– Howard Marks
What steps do you take to ensure survival as a trader? (more…)
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Desire -Skill
The Desire
If you are trading just for the money you will quit before you are successful, Why? Anyone without a love for the game will quit during the long difficult learning process. After hundreds of hours of work and years of trading with nothing but a loss to show for all the effort anyone with common sense will think it is too hard and just quit. Those with a love and passion for trading will eventually succeed and usually make six figures or become a millionaire for their efforts. Those that do a cost benefit analysis in the first few years will generally quit due to the math.
The Skill
A trader must have the skill to trade in three dimensions. The management of the mind, the method, and money management are all crucial for success. Traders must have the discipline and perseverance to trade robust systems through different market environments without giving up. They must have the ability to accept and deal with their thoughts and emotions as they arise during both winning and losing streaks. Risk must be managed on every single trade without the ego causing bets so big that they put your future trading at risk. The trader must also have the skill to not let fear take away the traders ability to pull the trigger on a good entry.
Jesse Livermore's Strategies
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Extract from :Lessons from the Greatest STOCK TRADERS of all time
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Analyst Career Risk
Top 5 Quotes From Market Wizard Ahmet Okumus
“I spend a hundred hours a week on research.” – Ahmet Okumus
While we spend our time researching different things, Okumus and I both share the drive to learn as much as we can about our investments. Okumus spends his time studying fundamentals, while I have been spending my time studying trading systems and successful traders.
Regardless of what you are studying, a strong desire to learn is obviously very important to trading success.
“On average I would say 35 percent school and 65 percent stock market, but the stock market percentage kept going up over time. By the beginning of my senior year, I was devoting 90 percent of my time to the stock market, and I quit school altogether.” – Ahmet Okumus
Okumus is discussing the amount of time he invested in studying for school vs studying the stock market while in college. This stuck out to me because it reminded me of my college days. I was bored by most of the classes I was forced to take, so I would bring my own personal studies to class with me and work on that, completely ignoring professors.
Unlike Okumus, I did stick it out and finish school. I am not sure that that was a good decision though.
“My main goal is not to lose money.” – Ahmet Okumus
Focus on You
It is never the system or author writing the trading book that fails.
It is YOU! It is your lack of focus.
Focus on yourself and then you can focus on trading successfully.
Trading is at least 98% psychological. It’s a mental state of mind based upon your beliefs of what may happen. Books, systems and technical indicators can only take you so far! You must accept and understand that the market is all in your head. It is you versus the other trader. If you don’t understand YOU, how will you ever understand other traders; thus taking advantage of market moves based on their mental state of mind and their underlying beliefs.
Many investors, both novice and experienced, drift from book to book to book and system to system to system, never understanding why they produce inconsistent profits. They are confused, looking at too many things, complicating the entire process while ignoring the essentials to success.
Keep it simple.
Why complicate things when simplicity works; especially when it comes to trading? We know that trading may be the most difficult endeavor that any human may attempt to undertake.
Thousands of different systems work in the stock market so we can conclude that it is the user that ultimately fails because of lack of concentration and motivation to stay the course. Wall Street is not for drifters and most people can’t play the game profitably because they never sharpen their own mental skills while applying basic money management techniques. They focus on the wrong set of skills.
We all see people come and go every day: rags to riches to rags. They are motivated for weeks, months and sometimes years but most fizzle away after they fail and can’t figure out what they are doing wrong. Some investors copy a system from a so-called guru and may find success for a while but they don’t tailor it to their personality, integrate it with their investing style and focus on their mental state of mind, therefore, it will become obsolete and they will fail. Working hard to become successful in the market is fine but understand that working smarter will always take you further.
Our goal as traders and investors is to understand the crowd and anticipate how they will act and react based on the thoughts we had, prior to focusuing on the proper skills, when we were just one of the sheep (waiting to be slaughtered)!
Focus on what is important and the success will follow.
Stop focusing on iffy stochastics, Bollinger bands, MACD, ADX, earnings releases and bogus news stories. Yes they can aid you to success but the main focus is on you!
Personally speaking, I require specific fundamentals, price, volume and basic daily and weekly charts to succeed but they are secondary tools. They can help me make money as long as I am focusing on the overall picture which is my mental focus and my emotional balance.
I know I am getting all “Dr. Perruna” on you but it is true.
Once your conscious mind understands how the beliefs of the crowd work, your subconscious mind takes over and intuition kicks in and you start making some of the best decisions of your life by flawlessly following your system.
As Jesse Livermore said:
“Wall Street never changes, the pockets change, the stocks change, but Wall Street never changes, because human nature never changes”
Why? Because humans never change!
Once you understand this and learn to trade other humans, you will become successful. Yes, you will need some of the tools mentioned above but don’t focus your attention in this area. Focus when investing by mastering the beliefs of the crowd and you will always be one step ahead.