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10 Trading Points

1) When you see a market extended to the upside or downside, in which many new buyers or sellers pile in at the new highs or lows, be on the lookout for opportunities to fade the move. The market, on average, doesn’t reward those who chase highs or lows or who panic out at price extremes.
2) A market that trades above or below its value area on weak volume is likely to return to that value area. A breakout turns into a trend when higher/lower prices attract market participation.
3) A broad, high volume breakout move to new highs or lows from an extended range is more likely to continue in its breakout direction (and move significantly in its breakout direction) than a narrow, low volume breakout move from a briefer range. Such moves are sustained by the larger number of traders on the wrong side of the market who will have to cover their positions, thus accentuating the breakout move.
4) A breakout move accompanied by a fundamental catalyst (earnings report, news event, shift in interest rates, currency movement) is more likely to continue in its breakout direction than a breakout move that occurs without other asset repricing. Large institutional traders are more likely to reprice equities in the face of significant fundamental drivers in correlated markets.
5) Don’t chase price highs or lows; sell when buyers take their turn and can’t move the market highs; buy when the sellers take their turn and can’t move the market lower.

6) Identify what the market’s largest traders are doing and go with it on weak countertrend action. The large traders account for the majority of the market’s volume and volatility. If they are buying or selling stocks, you don’t want to get caught fighting them. Wait for pullbacks to enter in the direction of the institutions.
7) If it’s a slow market (relatively few large traders), consider the possibility of range bound action. Low volume means low volatility, and that is generally associated with relatively narrow price ranges. Take profits quickly in such markets and set targets modestly; moves tend to reverse readily.
8) If it’s a busy market (relatively many large traders), consider the possibility of volatile market action. A market with high volume means that large traders will be capable of pushing price up and down to a greater degree than average. Adjust your stops and targets to account for this incremental volatility.
9) If many sectors don’t participate in a new high or low for the broad market index, consider fading the new high or low. A trend with staying power will tend to lift or depress all major stocks/sectors. When many issues or sectors don’t participate in a market move, the buying or selling in the index is often confined to a few issues that are highly weighted. Such moves generally are not sustained.
10) If you anticipate a broad move by equities, consider trading the most volatile indexes and the sectors with greatest relative strength. What you trade is just as important to results as the timing of trades. Go with the dominant market themes unless you have tangible evidence that those themes have changed.

Don’t blame the market for your losses- A Thought

1.) It is highly possible that you will never really make it.  Honestly, trading is a difficult game.  Anyone who said so, was not truthful.  It IS VERY HARD. Trading is not a themepark.  I always stress this out.  Check (How I Started).  I have only come to this realization after losing so much money.  Sigh.  I hope I can spare some of you of the losses.  Make sure that when you trade, you have a mentor, a peer, or a community who have the intention of educating you properly, who’ll look at what you’re doing.  Chances are, the losses come from two most common trading mistakes – Fear and Greed.

Fear of losing money – (You cannot cut the losses)

Fear of losing out – Overtrading.  Chasing unplanned trades.

Greed- Your money management is wrong.  You want to revenge trade. No risk management.

UK Q4 provisional GDP qq 0.4% vs 0.5% exp

Latest UK Q4 GDP reading now out 22 Feb

  • 0.5% flash
  • yy 1.4% vs 1.5% exp/flash
  • exports qq -0.2% vs 0.5% exp vs 0.8% prev
  • imports qq 1.5% vs 1.0% exp vs 0.9% prev
  • pvt consumption qq 0.3% vs 0.4% exp/prev
  • Dec index of services mm 0.0 % as exp vs 0.4% prev
  • 3mth/3mth 0.6% vs 0.5% exp vs 0.4% prev
  • household spending grew by 1.8% between 2016 and 2017, its slowest rate of annual growth since 2012, in part reflecting the increased prices faced by consumers
  • GDP for 2017 revised lower to 1.7% from 1.8%; slowest rate since 3M – Dec 2012
Soggier second reading than expected/prev but GBP unfazed for the moment.
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