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rssA Theorem of Winning and Losing
I just read the book Contrary Opinion by R. Earl Hadady. Aside from his point on bullish consensus, I found the following very interesting (I call it theorem of winning and losing). We all know that the majority lose trading futures. So, say 80% traders lose, and let T denote the total number of traders, NW the average number of contracts held by winning traders, and NL the average number of contracts held by losing traders, then the following equation holds:
0.2 * T * NW = 0.8 * T * NL
From the above we get: NW = 4 * NL
Which mean the average number of contracts by winning traders is 4 times the average number of contracts by losing traders.
If 90% traders lose, then we have
NW = 9 * NL
So, the theorem says the deep pocket traders have a natural advantage to win. It begs the question of how traders with not so deep pocket can survive and win. What are the good strategies? I wonder if this also implies that one may increase the chance of winning by not diversifying funds.
Trading Wisdom – Larry Hite
Larry Hite – Turned a $2 million managed account into $800 million in 8 years.
Throughout my financial career, I have continually witnessed examples of other people that I have known being ruined by a failure to respect risk. If you don’t take a hard look at risk, it will take you. If you argue with the market, you will lose. It is incredible how rich you can get by not being perfect. Never risk more than 1% of your total equity in any one trade. By risking 1%, I am indifferent to any individual trade. Keeping your risk small and constant is absolutely critical. I have two basic rules about winning in trading as well as in life:
- If you don’t bet, you can’t win.
- If you lose all your chips, you can’t bet. Frankly, I don’t see markets. I see risks, rewards, and money.
5 Steps for Traders
- STAY DISCIPLINED AND ONLY TRADE YOUR METHOD. If you do not have a robust system, method, or strategy do not trade again until you have one.
- ONLY TAKE TRADES WITH IN THE PARAMETERS OF YOUR TRADING PLAN. Trade your plan not your emotions. If you do not have a plan that defines entries, exits, and position sizing do not trade again until you have one.
- YOUR FIRST LOSS IS YOUR BEST LOSS. When your planned stop is first hit just get out. In trading hoping is a very expensive emotion
- UNDERSTAND THE MARKET ENVIRONMENT. There are times to be short, times to be long, and times to be out. Volatility is many traders kryptonite. If the market itself is not conducive to your strategy wait until it is.
- CHOOSE YOUR SPOTS CAREFULLY. Do not rush trades, wait until you get the right set up, trend, or break out you are waiting for, the market isn’t going anywhere, wait for the fat pitch.
Courage and Trading
According to Plutarch, “Courage stands halfway between cowardice and rashness…” Clearly, we don’t want to be reckless; and clearly, we don’t want to be hesitant and timid. What we need is a balance. As we go about our trading moderating our greed and our fear to a combination of healthy desire and clear minded caution, we use courage to go forward.
Courage doesn’t mean closing your eyes, holding your nose, and jumping into the deep end. It does mean moving forward with clean and clear perception as well as steadfastness of purpose.
You don’t need courage if you’re totally confident and unafraid. Courage, according to John Wayne, is being scared to death and saddling up anyway. Because people tend to fear the unknown, and the unknown is all that is certain about any given trade, we need to employ courage. Since trading is always new, since anything can happen and it often does, since the wildness lies in wait, we need to overcome uncertainty and fear so that we can appropriately enter, exit, and remain in trades.
When asked what he meant by “guts”, Ernest Hemingway told Dorothy Parker in an interview “grace under pressure”. Trading is all about grace and gracefulness under pressure.
The good news is that courage is like any muscle. It grows and becomes stronger the more you use it. Often as I trade I’m unaware of utilizing courage. I know I’m extremely alert. I may even be excited. I’m not aware of any fear until something starts to go wrong. However, that alertness and excitement is a product of adrenalin running. Excitement or fear comes from the interpretation you give to the adrenalin high. The more you act as if you’re unafraid, the less afraid you become. It all gets easier. Act the part and become the part. Make it your goal to trade with increasing grace under pressure.
The difference between excitement and fear depends of what you are imagining.
Are you imagining loss or are you imagining profit? Of course, you always have to keep the alternative in mind as trading is all about balancing the alternatives, profit with loss. But you don’t have to put loss into the foreground of your mind, because you never would put on a trade unless profit was the probable outcome. Direct your imagination towards profit, and suspend all thoughts of loss–once you’ve put your stops in.
“Don’t cry before you’re hurt.” says a proverb. I would add, don’t mourn a loss before you experience it. Don’t even mourn it after you take it, get on with the next trade, and the next, and the next. Anticipate profit. That’s what you’re there to experience. Ah yes, and as another proverb states: “Fortune favors the brave.”
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Time to Buy Sugar Stocks
After hitting a low of $ 13 on New York Board Of Trade (NYBOT) it had flared upto 15.71 on Friday and closed at 15.65 level.
-I think it will flare upto 16.57 -16.86 & there after nonstop rally uto 17.79-18.08 level on card.
Thirsty Futures ,Just refresh your Memory and see from what level I was Bearish in SUGAR stocks.
Technically ,Only Balarampur Chini looking Hot ,But Bajaj Hindustan /Renuka Sugar….Still Trend Down.
-International sugar prices had spured last week and there is no reflection in Indian Sugar Stocks.
-I think ,Traders can take a Risk of Rs.2-3 or Consider last week low as support and add another Rs.2 for support and Buy these stocks.
-Now don’t think they will catch fire or will explode.But Yes 101% spurt not ruled out.Rally may last for 1-3 days or 5 days.
99.99% International Sugar prices had bottomed out.This is my Judgement and maximum it can form double bottom at $ 13 or will try to form Higher bottom.
Your Media Analyst ,Media Anchors and Blue channel babes will start doing Bla Bla in day or two.
Just enjoy this beautiful song from film :Cheeni Kum
Updated at 15:31/22nd May/Baroda