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Major Setback for Tea Industry ?

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Ending India’s push for endosulfan

The tea industry will suffer a major setback following a global ban on Endosulfan — a pesticide that is widely used in growing the crop. Endosulfan is set to be banned worldwide after the signing of the Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants, or the POPs, treaty in Geneva in mid-October.

The ban on Endosulfan may lead to a fall in exports to some European countries, which now accept tea containing the pesticide within a maximum residuary limit.
India exported 203 million kg tea worth Rs 2,393 crore in 2008, of which almost 30 million kg were shipped to the European countries. (more…)

5 “Common” Rules of Great Traders.

1. They react and make few decisions. They do plan every trade. They just plan a lot faster. The market moves fast, so do they. A plan is somehow neglected by many. Would you start a business without any plans? Do it already. You will improve.

2. They make most of their money on the highs or lows. There will be interest at the highs and lows, they use it to buy and sell into. They are already in a position when it gets there. It is a place that most people are looking at. The market actions will dictate further moves. I disagree that they stop picking tops and bottoms. They just are aware that is the type of trade they are taking. High risk, high reward.

3. They get out on the best tick. On a winner or a loser. See rule 1 and 2. I am not sure why no one ever talks about this, including here. Execution is as important as any other skill.

4. They accept responsibilities for their actions. They do not socialize losses and privatize wins. It is all privatized. They eliminate mistakes and learn more cheaply than others. I do not know if they only trade one market but they are experts on themselves.

5. Success is the end point. They can already pay their bills. They are actually trading with risk capital. They can focus on the market and keeping their TEE in balance. Percentage gains are very important but they are not indicative of future returns. Their measurement is based on how well they executed their plan.

1+10 Rules for Critical Thinking

  1. All beliefs in whatever realm are theories at some level. (Stephen Schneider)
  2. Do not condemn the judgment of another because it differs from your own. You may both be wrong. (Dandemis)
  3. Read not to contradict and confute; nor to believe and take for granted; nor to find talk and discourse; but to weigh and consider. (Francis Bacon)
  4. Never fall in love with your hypothesis. (Peter Medawar)
  5. It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories instead of theories to suit facts. (Arthur Conan Doyle)
  6. A theory should not attempt to explain all the facts, because some of the facts are wrong. (Francis Crick)
  7. The thing that doesn’t fit is the thing that is most interesting. (Richard Feynman)
  8. To kill an error is as good a service as, and sometimes even better than, the establishing of a new truth or fact. (Charles Darwin)
  9. It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so. (Mark Twain)
  10. Ignorance is preferable to error; and he is less remote from the truth who believes nothing, than he who believes what is wrong. (Thomas Jefferson)
  11. All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed, second, it is violently opposed, and third, it is accepted as self-evident. (Arthur Schopenhauer)

Keys to Trader Self-Talk

“And the talk slid north, and the talk slid south . . .” Rudyard Kipling

What do you say to yourself when you trade? Now some of you may be thinking, “Talk to myself? I don’t talk to myself.” But of course you do. You’re talking to yourself when you think that. That’s how we think. We think in words (and sounds, pictures and feelings). But most precisely we think in words; therefore, we talk to ourselves.

When you’re considering entering a market, what are you saying to yourself? Are you saying, “What if I lose? “What if I’m wrong?” If you hesitate before entering and have trouble pulling the trigger, I guarantee you’re saying something similar to that.

Since good trading is very much about controlling the risk, often the first consideration is where to put our stops. You might first ask yourself,”What is my risk?” This is better than asking, “What if I lose?” However, it still takes your thoughts to risk and loss rather than reward and profit. If you’re hesitating when you should be entering the market, you could change your comment to something like, “How much can I make?”or, “What if this trade is a big winner?”

Of course, not everybody hesitates to enter a trade: some jump the gun and some overtrade. These people are anticipating large profits. If you hear yourself saying, “This is going to be a big move!” or “This is going to the moon!”, you’ll need to activate caution. Remember, gamblers often think they’ve got a sure thing. When you hear yourself promoting a trade, it would be wise to ask yourself, “What is my risk?” and “What would have to happen to know that I’m wrong or no longer right?” Our self-talk reveals our biases. If you’re talking up your trade or talking it down, you have a good clue that you’ve lost your neutrality. In such an instance it would be advisable to ask yourself, “What is the market showing me now? What does the market want? What do I know for certain? Have my rules for entry been met?”

If you hear yourself saying, “I don’t believe this!” Look out. You’re warning yourself that you’re not taking the market action at its face value; an extremely dangerous thing to do. Remember price is your predominant reality when you trade.

Some traders demean themselves when they trade. They speak to themselves in negative ways they would never let another person talk to them. They call themselves stupid idiots, failures, fools, losers, and so forth. While their intention in so speaking might be to motivate themselves to better behavior, it seldom does. Self-denigration rarely produces good results. Have you ever noticed that the more you scold yourself, the more your behavior reproduces itself? The strangest secret is that we become what we say. I tell my clients that I won’t allow anybody to speak unkindly to my clients, including themselves.

Much better to encourage yourself. “You can do better than this.” “You don’t need to do that again.” “I’ll do better tomorrow.”

Start writing down the words you say at critical junctures in your trading. You’ll begin to understand where your thinking is helpful and harmful, and you’ll be able to change the direction of your thoughts by shifting your words. There’s an article on my website discussing the critical importance of questions. Check it out. What if you could learn to direct your words and thoughts in such a way that you truly support your success in trading?

The 10 Signs You Might Have a Fear of Failure

The following are not official diagnostics but if you feel these criteria are very characteristic of you (‘very’ being an important distinguishing marker as we all feel these things to some extent), you might want to examine this issue further, either by doing more reading about it or talking to a mental health professional.

1. Failing makes you worry about what other people think about you.

2. Failing makes you worry about your ability to pursue the future you desire.

3. Failing makes you worry that people will lose interest in you.

4. Failing makes you worry about how smart or capable you are.

5. Failing makes you worry about disappointing people whose opinion you value.

6. You tend to tell people beforehand that you don’t expect to succeed in order to lower their expectations.

7. Once you fail at something you have trouble imagining what you could have done differently to succeed.

8. You often get last minute headaches, stomachaches, or other physical symptoms that prevent you from completing your preparation.

9. You often get distracted by tasks that prevent you from completing your preparation that in hindsight were not as urgent as they seemed at the time.

10. You tend to procrastinate and ‘run out of time’ to complete you preparation adequately 

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