Latest Posts

rss

Latest Rumor Sees 16-17% Greek Bond Haircut, Sending European Stocks Soaring

  
Analysis, Economy, Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

The latest targeted leak in the European “stress” tests is that according to German bank sources, the discount on Greek debt will be in the 16-17% ballpark. This compares to an earlier rumor leak of a 10% discount on Greek debt which however did not sufficiently spike the market, leading to rumor #2 which so far has done a good job at pushing the AUDJPY (aka stocks) higher. The quid pro quo however, is to take not only German but now French bonds, will be out of the “stressed” picture. As Reuters reports: “The presumed markdown applied to French sovereign bonds will be 0.7 percent, one of the sources, both of which are based in Germany, added. “German sovereign bonds will not be stressed,” both sources confirmed.” Of course, with Greek bonds being stressed to market (which is where the discount actually implies they are tested), French bonds would would suffer a far greater markdown than 0.7%. But then again, the EU has already bought up a ton of Greek bonds, and little if any French. Can’t have the bank pick and choose which country to bail out now, can it.

Just see Today Morning ,I had written European Market short term trend is up !!

The Wisdom Of Simplicity

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

“The art of art, the glory of expression and the sunshine of the light of letters, is simplicity.” ~ Walt Whitman

Life is simple; we only make it complex. We spend our lives unconsciously covering our authenticity with outer identity until at some point we begin wondering “where everything went wrong.” But the tragedy for many people is that the wondering never begins and life’s simple beauty is not rediscovered.

I use the word “rediscovered” because you already know that life can be simple because you experienced it as a child. If you are normal, you spent much of your life since then trying to become something other than yourself. But normal is not healthy; success in the unreal world means failure in the real one.

The power and virtue of simplicity is a universal truth; it’s wisdom applies to all areas of life. What are some ways you can declutter, simplify and return to your authentic Self? Here are a few ideas that can help.

  • Instead of finding new things to add to your life, find things to remove.
  • If you want to increase income, decrease expenses.
  • Do less thinking and do more wondering.
  • Turn down the noise.
  • Go to the woods.
  • Listen to a child. (more…)

10 One Liners For Traders

  
  Education
  1. Markets tend to return to the mean over time
  2. Excess in one direction will lead to an opposite excess in the other direction
  3. There are no new eras – excesses are never permanent
  4. Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they don’t correct by going sideways
  5. The public buys most at the top and the least at the bottom
  6. Fear and greed are stronger than long term resolve
  7. Markets are strongest when they are broad and weakest when they narrow to a handful of blue chip names
  8. Bear markets have three stages – sharp down, reflexive rebound and a drawn out fundamental downtrend
  9. When all the experts and forecasts agree – something else is going to happen
  10. Bull markets are more fun than bear markets

10 Rules For Traders

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #

1. Find and trade markets where your edge is the greatest.
2. Avoid markets were the probability of rule changes and lack of transparency is present.
3. Think of and imagine market scenarios others fail to.
4. Fundamental macroeconomic forces will ultimately prevail.
5. Trading time frames and profit objectives though must coincide with what the market is giving you at any one time.
6. Quantify risk with a multidimensional perspective, not just by one or two measures such as VAR or a price stop.
7. Learn from history. Jay Gould and his attempts to corner the gold markets in the late 1860’s. The Russian default of 1917 and 1998. The European Rate Mechanism break up. The Tequila crisis of 1994. The Asian financial crisis.
8. Be deadly serious, as Gichin Funakoshi said “You must be deadly serious in training”. If you have a position make it a meaningful size and monitor it carefully. I recall many comments from fellow traders the past few years saying something like “I am long EuroSwiss just to have some on but not really watching it.”
9. Define and use a trading methodology that incorporates a process and framework that works for you. Inclusive in this should be a daily routine that includes diet, exercise, family time, etc.
10. Seek out catalysts for CHANGE in markets. Where are the forces, in a Newtonian like law of motion, building up the greatest to cause a CHANGE and movement in markets?

Go to top