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UK And US Among Top 5 Weekly Sovereign Deriskers

  
Analysis, Economy, Education, Forex
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The week’s biggest (sovereign) CDS movers have been released, and we have some new entrants in the most endangered species list. While by now nobody will be surprised that the UK is a consistent top 2 player (coming in this week with $319 million in net notional derisking, this making it the 8th week or so the country has made the top 3), only behind Italy and its $452 million in net notional, and just in front of last week’s #1 Brazil, the presence of the United States at #4 should be a little unsettling. It has been months since the US appeared in the top 5. And just like in the long gold case, the same types of existential questions once again arise when the interest in US CDS picks up: who gets to pay off your contracts in the case of an event of default? Elsewhere, the presence of Korea and Turkey (or Australia) in the top 10 should not come as too surprising. On the other end, short covering was violent in CDS of Spain, Hungary and Portugal – Europe’s newest lepers. Is the CDS community concerned the EU can actually pull out a rabbit out of the hat that actually works for once? Hardly. The top 10 reriskers also saw the inclusion of France and long-forgotten insolvent Greece.

Indian Economy :Unknown Facts

  
Economy, Education
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Unknown Fact

India’s long-term local currency debt is rated at Ba2 by Moody’s, two levels below the investment grade and at par with Armenia and Turkey. Indian government debt accounts for about 80 percent of GDP. Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings have a rating of BBB-, the lowest investment grade.

The government’s annual debt repayments will rise to 1.14 trillion rupees in the next fiscal year from 531 billion rupees.

The 10-year yield has risen 62 basis points in the past year, the worst performer during that period among the 10 Asian local-currency debt markets outside Japan, according to indexes compiled by HSBC Holding Plc. It fell 95 basis points in the previous 12 months.

Catalyst that could lead to a crash

  
Economy, Education
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“Chinese banks face state loans turmoil; about Rmb1,550B in questionable loans. “
This simple sentence reminds me of the Japanese Banks prior to the big Nikkei crash, that has not yet recovered (over 20 years).
What did we learn from the subprime mess ? The banks lied to us …..
What did we learn about the Nikkei crash ? The banks lied ….
1) Watch the Shanghai Index ! It has risen from its July’s low to almost 2600 ; a key resistance level.
2) Watch light crude oil prices (key indicator for the Chinese demand)
3) Did you just make some money on this rally ? SELL !!!!
I am bearish ? No, its just NOT the time to “buy and hold”

America Is On The Verge Of An Economic Catastrophe

  
Analysis, Economy, Education
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 I don’t need to remind you of the frightening economic data Washington doesn’t want you to know — the nearly $13 trillion debt, 90% debt to GDP ratio (that does not even include the off-budget items, such as the $6 trillion owed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, or the $50 trillion of unfunded liabilities for programs like Social Security and Medicare)… And I certainly don’t need to reiterate the urgency of this situation. You know how severe the ramifications will be if we fail to take immediate action

Peter Schiff`s comments on the economy, stock markets, politics and gold. Schiff is the renowned writer of the bestseller Crash Proof: How to Profit from the Coming Economic Collapse.

LyondellBasell Board Said to Reject Reliance Bid

  
Analysis, Economy, Education
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RejectedMarch 1 (Bloomberg) — The board of bankrupt LyondellBasell Industries AF rejected a bid from Reliance Industries Ltd., owner of the world’s largest oil-refining complex, two people briefed on the matter said today.

Reliance, based in Mumbai, had raised its offer for a controlling stake in Lyondell to $14.5 billion, two people with knowledge of the offer said Feb. 22. Lyondell is based in Rotterdam.

Buying LyondellBasell would create a company with more than $80 billion in revenue and give Reliance chemical plants and two oil refineries in the U.S. and Europe. The chemicals maker had rejected a revised Reliance bid that valued it at $13.5 billion, the Wall Street Journal reported Jan. 8.

Lyondell was formed in a 2007 deal financed with $22 billion in debt in which it was bought by Basell AF, a unit of Len Blavatnik’s Access Industries Holdings LLC. Creditors have said the buyout crippled one of the world’s largest polymers, petrochemicals, and fuel companies, causing it to seek bankruptcy.

Lyondell spokesman David Harpole declined to comment.

If you trading ,then read this

  
Analysis, Economy, Education
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Below, we share a presentation from Morgan Stanley’s Jim Caron, Measuring Risk: Extracting Market Sentiment from the Interest Rate Markets, in which the credit strategist provides a much more detailed framework of what critical credit signals are and how to interpret them. We recommend that all those still trading, either with their own, or other people’s money, familiarize themselves with this 27-page overview.

(Instead of Watching TV -Cricket Match -Movies ,Traders just read this -)

 

 


Specific Observations for Traders

  
Economy, Education
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  • If you find yourself holding a winning position, adding up your profits, and confidently projecting larger gains on the horizon, you are probably better off exiting the trade. The odds are that the trade has run its course.
  • When entering a trade with a market order and your fill is clearly better than expected, odds are it will end up being a losing trade. Good fill, bad trade. Get out!
  • If all your ‘trading buddies’ agree with your expectations regarding the next big move, it probably will not work out. If everyone’s conviction level is as strong as the consensus, do the opposite.

 

Per capita income in India is Rs 46,492

  
Analysis, Economy, Education
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Per capita income of Indians grew by 14.5 per cent to Rs 46,492 in 2009-10 from Rs 40,605 in the year-ago period, as per the revised data released by the government today.

 The new per capita income figure estimates on current market prices is over Rs 2,000 more than the previous estimate of Rs 44,345 calculated by the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO).

Per capita income means earnings of each Indian if the national income is evenly divided among the country’s population at 117 crore.

However, the increase in per capita income was only about 6 per cent in 2009-10 if it is calculated on the prices of 2004-05 prices, which is a better way of comparison and broadly factors inflation.

Per capita income (at 2004-05 prices) stood at Rs 33,731 in FY10 against Rs 31,801 in the previous year, the latest data on national income said.

The size of the economy at current prices rose to Rs 61,33,230 crore in the last fiscal, up 16.1 per cent over Rs 52,82,086 crore in FY’09.

Based on 2004-05 prices, the Indian economy expanded by 8 per cent during the fiscal ended March 2010. This is higher than 6.8 per cent growth in fiscal 2008-09.

The country’s population increased to 117 crore at the end of March 2010, from 115.4 crore in fiscal 2008-09.

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