10-year yields up 4 bps to 1.57%
That is the highest since 17 June as bond sellers are starting to put up a display that they are still in the driver’s seat as we get things going in the new week.
For me, this is where things start to get interesting as the technical breakout from two weeks ago did flash signs that yields would be headed towards 1.60% or perhaps 1.70%.
Inflation expectations may be in part at play here with the energy crisis likely to worsen going into winter, especially in Europe and the UK.
Brent has pushed past $82 and WTI is clipping $79 already since yesterday and are also impacted by the surge in energy prices in general.
Going back to the bond market, the US non-farm payrolls this week is going to be a big one to watch out for. A strong report will rebuff Fed expectations of a taper and coupled with high inflation that we’re seeing, gives policymakers more flexibility in talking up rate hikes as a combative tool heading into next year.
For now, yields closing in on 1.60% may weigh more heavily on tech stocks so be wary of that and overall equities sentiment considering how things have been looking rather weary over the past few days – in spite of the gains posted yesterday.
