Weekly oil and gas drilling rigs from Baker Hughes
Here’s a chart from CIBC showing US drilled but uncompleted wells. They’ve been drawn down since the start of the pandemic as companies fake better efficiency and capital discipline. Rigs have been rising but they’re going to have to rise much more quickly to maintain US production. The EIA is forecasting around 700k bpd more production in 2022 and I just don’t see it, though WTI rising even further would certainly change that.
German DAX tests its 100/50 day moving averages
the major European indices are closing higher for the day and also closing higher for the week. The EuroStoxx 600 index rose by 2.6%. This was the best week since March.. UK’s FTSE 100 is trading at 7 month high. The German Dax test its 50 and 100 day moving averages.
The provisional closes are showing:
- German DAX, +0.8%
- France’s CAC, +0.6%
- UK’s FTSE 100 +0.35%
- Spain’s Ibex +0.8%
- Italy’s FTSE MIB, +0.8%
For the trading week:
- German DAX, +2.5%
- France’s CAC, +2.57%
- UK’s FTSE 100, +1.9%
- Spain’s Ibex, +0.5%
- Italy’s FTSE MIB, +1.6%
Looking at the daily chart of the German Dax, the high price reached 15598.58. That was just short of its 50 and 100 day moving averages at 15599 (see black and blue moving average lines in the chart below).
Yen weakness the dominant theme in the major currencies space
USD/JPY is keeping higher, up by over 0.4% to 114.16 currently near the highs for the day as the prevailing theme to start the session has been that of yen weakness.
10-year Treasury yields are up 2 bps to 1.54% so that is helping to underpin yen pairs and I detailed more on the technicals on that earlier here.
Going back to the dollar, it is tough to make much of trading sentiment at the moment with EUR/USD still looking sticky around 1.1600. GBP/USD is trading up by 0.3% to 1.3720 as cable buyers try for another push above 1.3700 after yesterday’s attempt fizzled off.
But commodity currencies are the more interesting ones with USD/CAD hovering around 1.2340-50 at the moment, flirting with another daily drop (fourth consecutive one potentially) as oil prices are also looking perky with Brent clipping $85 earlier.
AUD/USD is flat on the day and still toying around with its 100-day moving average at 0.7411 but NZD/USD is at least keeping a slight advance of 0.2% to 0.7050 as buyers look to hold above its own 100-day moving average @ 0.7020.
The changing of times in China
This is now arguably the main agenda that is being pushed by Chinese authorities and while economic growth is still a major consideration, it is perhaps no longer the top priority as China looks to deal with more pertinent cultural and demographic issues.
Adam warned about this all the way back at the start of September here and China has arguably been prepping for that for a while now with the change to birth policy too, as they are hoping to avoid following in Japan’s footsteps on the demographic front.
The headline getting play: Bitcoin Futures ETF Said Not to Face SEC Opposition at Deadline
BTC on the rise … as are other cryptos
Dow snapped the four day losing streak
The US stocks roared ahead with the Dow industrial average is snapping a four day losing streak:
- S&P has its best day since
- S&P and NASDAQ close higher for the second consecutive day
- Dow industrial average snapped the four day losing streak
- All S&P sectors closed higher
- NASDAQ has its best day since May 20
- Dow industrial average has its best day since July
- S&P has its best day since March 5 (7 month high)
- Gains were led by banks and better PPI data
- initial jobless claims were also below 300K for the first time since the pandemic
The final numbers are showing:
- Dow industrial average rose 534.73 points or 1.56% at 34,912.56
- S&P index rose 74.46 points or 1.71% at 4438.25
- NASDAQ index rose 251.8 points or 1.73% at 14823.44
Looking at the hourly chart of the NASDAQ index, it is closing just below its 200 hour moving average at 14832.61. In the new trading day moving above that level would be more bullish.