Russian economy ministry issues revised forecasts
- 2021 GDP growth forecast up to 3.8% from 2.9%
- lifts Urals oil price forecast to $65.9/bbl from $60.3/bbl
- 2021 inflation forecast to 5% from 4.3%
- 2021 capital investment growth forecast to 4.5% from 3.3%
- 2021 average dollar/rouble rate to 72.8 from 73.3 seen in April
The ministry comments on the higher forecasts:
- We see the economy is recovering faster than we had expected
- Our experts say the economic recovery potential is not exhausted yet
On the currency:
- We all realise that the rouble price should be different at oil prices of $75 per barrel
- current rouble weakness blamed on sanction risks, OPEC+ uncertainty around global oil output.
Russia’s inflation target is 4%, the latest reading has it at 6.5%. Russia’s central bank is expected to raise its key rate again from 5.5% on July 23.
USD/RUB daily chart:
