Archives of “April 2021” month

rss

Nikkei 225 closes lower by 0.46% at 28,991.89

  
Analysis, Global Indices

Asian equities more subdued in trading today

The Topix also closes down by 0.8% as Japanese equities stay rather sluggish despite gains in Wall Street overnight. Elsewhere, the Hang Seng is up 0.1% while the Shanghai Composite is down 0.1% ahead of the closing stages.
The 100-day moving average for the Nikkei holds close to 28,600 and that will be one to watch this week in case Japanese stocks remain more sluggish for the time being.

Vale (iron ore producers) say they expect supply to increase, demand lower

  
  Analysis
#  #  #  #  #  #

Iron ore is a huge Australian export to China. Vale with their outlook for iron ore

  • Going forward on the year, on the supply side, volumes shall increase compared to 2H20 
  • while iron ore demand might be impacted by production cuts due to environmental restrictions in China

China Industrial Profits data for March: +92.3% y/y (prior +20.1% y/y)

  
Analysis, Economy

China Industrial Profits reported at +92.3% y/y by the newswires.

There is a large ‘base effect’ component to this, March 2020 saw China plunged into lockdown.
For the YTD (January – March) comes in at +137% y/y (prior +178.9%)
—
Later this week we’ll get the official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs for April from China.

more to come

Coronavirus – US Chamber of Commerce official sees risk that India could be a drag on the global economy

  
Analysis, COVID-19
#  #  #  #  #  #

A US Chamber of Commerce official sees risk of a slowdown in India’s economy as a result of the Covid-19 jump, which could be a drag on the global economy.

Headlines via Reuters (perhaps today’s Captain Obvious award?)
  • “We expect that this could get worse before it gets better”
  • a “real risk” the Indian economy would falter given the circumstances
  • “There’s a big concern about the draft on the economy by a devastating, spreading virus in India.”

Federal Reserve FOMC policy meeting this week – preview

  
  Analysis

A snippet from BoA on the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday 28 April 2021

  • We see the Fed committed to FAIT and reactive not proactive. 
(ps. ICYMI FAIT is Flexible Average Inflation Targeting)
  • We continue to look for the Fed to taper in early 2022, signalling this well in advance-likely six months-and start hiking rates in 2H 2023. 
  • Once the Fed starts hiking, we expect a pace that is faster than current market pricing with a higher terminal rate. 
For more preview, this posted earlier:
  • FOMC meeting Wednesday 28 April 2021 – preview
A snippet from BoA on the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday 28 April 2021 
And, for your central bank fix (if needed) you don’t have to wait until Wednesday – the Bank of Japan is today!

UK to propose COVID-19 vaccination ‘passports’ for international travel at the G7 meeting

  
  Analysis

UK Telegraph with the report, the UK proposing ‘travel corridors’.

UK Transport Secretary to meet with G7 counterparts at the summit on June 11-13 with the proposal.
Tele says such a program could be in place by June 28. Seems a compressed timeline, can they move that quickly?
Proposal includes:
  • so called Covid passports
  • ‘green list’ coutnires for travel to and from
  • bilateral ‘travel corridrors’ to allow bypassing tests, quarantine for those vaccinated
  • UK, US, France, Italy and Germany planned initially
Link here for more (its the Tele so may be gated)
An alternative way to get into whatever country you like! 😉
UK Telegraph with the report, the UK proposing 'travel corridors'.

Reminder – Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting decision due Tuesday 27 April 2021

  
Analysis, Economy

The really quick preview of this is no change to any of the major policy planks is expected.

The thing to watch will be the updated forecasts in the ‘Outlook Report’ that’ll be published at the same time as the decision Statement. I popped up a preview of this yesterday:
  • Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting concludes Tuesday 27 April 2021 – preview

Note that there is no firmly scheduled time for the Bank of Japan announcement, expect it somewhere in the 0230 to 0330 GMT time window.

Governor Kuroda press conference follows at 0630GMT:
The really quick preview of this is no change to any of the major policy planks is expected. 
Go to top