EIA raises 2021 world oil demand to 5.5M. Up 180K

EIA demand and supply forecasts

  • 2021 world oil demand to increase 180K to 5.5M
  • 2022 world oil demand to decrease by 180K to 3.65M BPD
  • Crude oil output in 2021 to fall 270K to 11.04M (vs 160K BPD decline)
  • Crude oil output in 2022 to increase by 820K to 11.86M, unchanged from precious estimate.
The price of crude oil today is up about $1.09 or 1.9% at 59.74.  The high as reached $60.90. The low was at $58.62.

France reports 30,639 people in hospital. First breach of 30K since Nov 24

France Covid trends worsening

France as reported 30,639 people in the hospital. That is the first breach of 30K since November 24.  They are also reporting 5626 people are in intensive care which is a gain of 193 on the day.
  • Deaths rose 409  That is the highest since Feb 9.
Last week, France case count spiked above 50K last week for the first time since November.

France Covid trends worsening

A Winning Mindset is Required To Succeed

  • A losing trader can do little to transform himself into a winning trader. A losing trader is not going to want to
    transform himself. That’s the kind of thing winning traders do.
  • The winning traders have usually been winning at whatever field they are in for years.
  • It is a happy circumstance that when nature gives us true burning desires, she also gives us the means to
    satisfy them. Those who want to win and lack skill can get someone with skill to help them.
  • The “doing” part of trading is simple. You just pick up the phone and place orders. The “being” part is a bit more subtle. It’s like being an athlete. It’s commitment arid mission. To the committed, a world of support appears. All manner of unforeseen assistance materializes to support and propel the committed to meet grand destiny.
  • In your recipe for success, don’t forget commitment – and a deep belief in the inevitability of your success.

The Trader and the Trading System Must Meet

  • Systems don’t need to be changed. The trick is for a trader to develop a system with which he is compatible.
  • My original system was very simple with hard-and-fast rules that didn’t allow for any deviations. I found it
    difficult to stay with the system while disregarding my own feelings. I kept jumping on and off—often at just the wrong time. I thought I knew better than the system.
  • Also, it seemed a waste of my intellect and MIT education to just sit there and not try to figure out the markets.
  • Eventually, as I became more confident of trading with the trend, and more able to ignore the news, I became more comfortable with the approach. Also, as I continued to incorporate more “expert trader rules,” my system became more compatible with my trading style.
  • As I keep trading and learning, my system (that is the mechanical computer version of what I do) keeps evolving.
  • Over time, I have become more mechanical, since (1) I have become more trusting of trend trading, and (2)
    my mechanical programs have factored in more and more “tricks of the trade.” I still go through periods of thinking I can outperform my own system, but such excursions are often self-correcting through the process of losing money.
  • I don’t think traders can follow rules for very long unless they reflect their own trading style. Eventually, a breaking point is reached and the trader has to quit or change, or find a new set of rules he can follow. This seems to be part of the process of evolution and growth of a trader.
  • A trading system is an agreement you make between yourself and the markets.

Hold Your Position Until the Trend is Invalidated, Do Not Let Go of Your Position. Be Willing to Experience Your Anxieties

  • Maintaining a commitment is particularly important when it comes up for a test.
  • Somewhere along the line of keeping your commitment you may get a feeling that you don’t like.
  • If you are willing to experience the feeling, it can transform into an AHA that supports your commitment.
  • If you are unwilling to experience the feeling, you might abandon your commitment to try to make the feeling go away. That only results in having to feel the feeling after all.
  • The more you are willing to experience the feeling of bumping into walls, the less you have to bump into walls.
  • Trading requires skill at reading the markets and at managing your own anxieties.
  • People have a Conscious Mind and Fred. Fred wants to communicate feelings to CM so CM can experience them and gain experience and share it with Fred so Fred can learn how to react. This is how we manufacture wisdom. When we don’t like our feelings we tie them in k-nots and do not experience them. This interrupts the wisdom manufacture process, and draws drama into our lives.
  • K-nots, protect us from truth and keep our lives in drama. To untie k-nots, fully experience whatever appears in the moment.
  • When you keep your eye on the prize and are willing to experience all the feelings that arise, the prize soon becomes yours.

IMF boosts 2021 global growth estimate to 6.0% from 5.5% in January

IMF more upbeat on global growth

IMF more upbeat on global growth
  • 2021 would be strongest year since 1976
  • Advanced economies +5.1% vs +4.3% in Jan
  • Emerging markets 6.7% vs 6.3% in January
  • The IMF sees 4.4% growth in 2022
  • Says global economy contracted 3.3% in 2020 vs 3.5% prior estimate
  • US GDP seen at 6.4% from 5.1% in Jan estimate on stronger stimulus
  • Says that growth depends on vaccine rollout
  • Sees multi-speed recovery reflecting vaccine rollout differences, extent of fiscal support and structural factors
Country numbers compared to January estimates:
  • US 6.4% vs 5.1%
  • Germany 3.6% vs 3.5%
  • France 5.8% vs 5.5%
  • Japan 3.3% vs 3.1%
  • UK 5.3% vs 4.5%
  • Canada 5.0% vs 3.6%
  • China 8.4% vs 8.1%
  • India 12.5% vs 11.5%
The biggest delta in all of those is Canada, which helps to explain why CAD has been the best-performing G10 currency so far this year.

Dollar maintains slight advance on the session

GBP/USD falls to a low of 1.3840 on the day

GBP/USD H1 06-04

The dollar continues to hold more resilient in European morning trade today, bouncing off the lows yesterday with Treasury yields keeping steadier.
The dollar’s advance is evident against the pound, loonie, aussie and kiwi with the former seeing a bit more of a noticeable drop in the past hour.
Cable has fallen from around 1.3900 to start the session to 1.3840 and is testing some support from a near-term trendline around 1.3847 for the time being.
The 100-hour moving average (red line) sits just below that @ 1.3829. Keep above that and buyers will continue to hold a more bullish near-term bias.
Although the pound is proving to be resilient, the dollar’s strength as of late has proven to be a bit of a sticking point – especially if yields continue to push the issue.
That will remain the key spot to watch in trading this week. 10-year Treasury yields are little changed now but well off earlier lows, at 1.707% currently.
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