Archives of “July 2020” month

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Bank of Canada holds rates at 0.25%, as expected

  
  Analysis
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Highlights of the Bank of Canada rate decision

  • Prior was 0.25% (this is the effective lower bound for Canada)
  • BOC pledges to keep rates at 0.25% until inflation target hit
  • BOC to continue $5B per week in QE; repeats buying will continue “until the recovery is well underway”
  • BOC stands ready to adjust its programs if market conditions warrant
  • Says economic decline “considerably less severe than the worst scenarios presented in the April MPR”
  • BOC sees 40% of activity recovered in Q3 but then “the Bank expects the economy’s recuperation to slow as the pandemic continues to affect confidence and consumer behaviour and as the economy works through structural challenges”
  • Central scenario in in MPR shows economy not likely to return to pre-COVID levels until 2022
  • Sees 2020 GDP down 7.8%, up 5.1% in 2021 and up 3.7% in 2022
  • Says Q2 activity estimated to have fallen about 15% below its level at the end of 2019, economy appears to have bottomed in April
  • Sees US GDP down 8.1% in 2020, up 3.4% in 2021 and up 4.3% in 2022
  • Global GDP forecast down 5.2% in 2020 and up 5.2% in 2021
  • The path for CPI in the next year largely reflects the influence of energy prices
The big news here is this line:
“The Governing Council will hold the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2 percent inflation target is sustainably achieved.”
That’s forward guidance indicating no hikes until 2% inflation is ‘substantially achieved’. That last phrase leaves them some wiggle room but this is conditional forward guidance.
Macklem will hold a briefing at 1500 GMT (11 am ET)
Forecasts in the MPR:
BOC forecasts for developed world

Russia and Saudi Arabia support tapering oil cuts in August

  
  Analysis
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Bloomberg report

This doesn’t come as a shock but it’s going to be a very delicate balance in the oil market in the months ahead. OPEC+ wants to claim the market shares as demand comes back online but private producers are going to open the taps as well. We could very easily end up in a price war.

Moderna, S&P: Vaccine hopes

  
  Analysis
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A look at vaccine developments and its impact on the stock market

Moderna

FBSSource: Bloomberg

Yes, we’ve heard it already – both statements. Of course, from a humane point of view, it’s good to hear there is progress with the vaccine development. But it increasingly looks like by the time it is ready, most people indeed will already have immunity to the virus. In the meantime, Moderna is enjoying spikes of investor attention.

FBS 2
The latest update is that it got one step closer to the vaccine pushed its stock from the rage of $60 to $75. Needless to say, if the reports informed us tomorrow that another testing stage is cleared, we would see this stock already somewhere at its recently made all-time high above $85. Trajectory zone 2 would be the channel of movement in this case.

In fact, Moderna’s stock may well get to those highs anyways: fundamentally, the interest for anti-virus business will keep its momentum months or even years ahead, even if tomorrow is no virus at all. So Moderna will see its rise, just it will be a slow case scenario – the one that corresponds to trajectory zone 1.

S&P 500

For the stock market, the vaccine hope seems to be the only “joy” that keeps the optimism on the stage. With the S&P, currently, we are almost exactly at the previous high of 3 320, and in an obvious consolidation. Meaning, the market is not really sure what to look at more: still spreading infections in the US of the vaccine hopes. Today, it seems the latter is taking the upper hand. What the next step is going to be?

An optimistic scenario suggests we will see Trajectory 1 giving the green light to bulls and repeating the pattern of the previous upward wave the S&P followed in May. How probable is that? Quite probable, given that the reports about vaccine developments keep coming more often.

A pessimistic scenario as per Trajectory 3 suggests that we are actually at the tip of another “inside wave” which will bounce down from the resistance of 3 230. How probable is that one? Also very probable: clearing testing processes is good, but we don’t have the vaccine yet. It may take months before we finally see it.

A moderate scenario presumes that the market will overlook the absence of the vaccine and take on a more positive mood. That will be Trajectory 2.

The thing is that, indeed, it may be not until the very end of 2020 when the vaccine eventually gets done. Everyone knows that. If the S&P was only waiting for the vaccine to finally get developed, then it would be going sideways between 2 980 and 3 230 for months from now. Is that likely? No. Regardless of the vaccine process, the more we move into the future, the more the market becomes insensitive to the reality of infections and, therefore, independent from the vaccine hopes. Why? Because with the vaccine or without it, life goes on. And even the virus is now on the rise in the US – again – it will slow down pretty soon. So the question is not “if” but “when”. And the market is bored waiting.

FBS 3

This post is written and submitted by FBS Markets for informational purposes only. In no way shall it be interpreted or construed to create any warranties of any kind, including an offer to buy or sell any currencies or other instruments. 

The views and ideas shared in this article are deemed reliable and based on the most up-to-date and trustworthy sources. However, the company does not take any responsibility for accuracy and completeness of the information, and the views expressed in the article may be subject to change without prior notice.

BOJ’s Kuroda: Economic activity has gradually resumed

  
Analysis, Economy
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BOJ governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, begins his press conference

Kuroda
  • But Japanese economy remains in an extremely severe siituation
  • Pace of recovery to only be moderate
  • Inflation is likely to be negative for the time being
  • Future economic developments remain extremely unclear
  • Risks are tilted to the downside for prices, economic growth
  • BOJ won’t hesitate to ease further if needed
  • Will continue to support corporate financing, markets
Kuroda is still maintaining a more subdued take on the economic situation but that is hardly a surprise. The recent economic data from Japan have been rather poor and a possible virus resurgence only adds to more risks surrounding the outlook.
But Kuroda stands firm in assuring that the BOJ policies since March are having an impact, though I’m sure they pretty much lucked out on this one with the Fed and ECB doing most of the heavy lifting to appease financial risks in the market for the most part.

Way to Time an Entry for a Position Trade

  
Analysis, Education
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Green Vinyl Entry Signage, Thickness: 3 To 10 Mm ,Shape: Square ...For position trades, you may not want to be too involved in the intraday timing for your entry. Nonetheless, rather than just buying at a random time, e.g. at the open or at the close, your entry price can be improved by taking note of the intraday trend using some quick-and-dirty methods.

A quick-and-dirty way to determine the trend is to say that if price is above the 50-period SMA, and the 50-period SMA is sloping upwards, then it is an uptrend. Reverse those conditions for a downtrend.

Now say you want to take a long position

  • If the intraday chart shows an uptrend based on the method above, then immediately enter your position.
  • If the intraday chart shows a downtrend, wait for the trend to change to up, then enter immediately.

If you want to take a short position, reverse the instructions above. If you want to add some complexity to trend determination, you can also add in an additional condition for higher highs and higher lows for uptrend, and lower highs and lower lows for downtrend.

Nikkei 225 closes higher by 1.59% at 22,945.50

  
Analysis, Global Indices
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Japanese stocks boosted by more upbeat Wall Street sentiment

Nikkei 15-07

The late surge by US stocks overnight is helping to give Asian equities a decent lift in trading today, though Chinese and Hong Kong stocks are weighed down by US-China tensions after Trump removed Hong Kong’s special status earlier in the day.

The Hang Seng is seen at flat levels now after trading in the red earlier while the Shanghai Composite has pared some losses to be down by 0.2% currently.
Elsewhere, US futures are still keeping more upbeat with S&P 500 futures up by ~0.8%.
That is keeping the likes of the aussie and kiwi more underpinned ahead of European morning trade, with AUD/USD flirting with the 0.7000 handle while NZD/USD is trying to crack back above its key hourly moving averages at 0.6552-69.

Synthesized happiness (sour grapes)

  
Analysis, Education
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  • By cutting off that possibility (or imposing a self-restriction on my flexibility), my psychological immune system gets triggered to synthesize happiness.
  • My non-conscious processes immediately ‘downgraded’ the idea of trend continuation (if I can’t get on, the trend must be bad), and boosted the idea that the trend will end.
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