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Florida coronavirus cases 12624 vs 15299 yesterday

Coronavirus data from Florida for July 13, 2020:

  • Florida yesterday set a one-day state record of 15,299 cases (6274 last Monday)
  • Total cases 282,435 vs 269,811 yesterday
  • Residents hospitalized  vs 18,271 yesterday
  • Currently hospitalized +514 to 8038
  • Median age 41 vs 38 yesterday
  • Deaths +35
  • Number of people tested 112,264 vs 142,981 yesterday (48,503 last Monday)
  • Positivity 11.51% vs 11.25% yesterday (14.92% last Monday)
This is worse than expected. Given the usual weekend effect, I would have expected a number below 10,000. However testing was still fairly high.

UK PM Johnson: We do think masks have a great deal of value in confined spaces

Comments by UK prime minister, Boris Johnson

Boris Johnson
  • We have got the virus under control across the country
  • It is very important to wear a face covering in shops
  • Will look at the guidance and say more in the next few days
Judging by recent remarks by the government, it is only a matter of time now before masks are surely going to be mandatory in shops across the UK.
In the US, Trump also wore a mask in public over the weekend but we’ll see if he will start doing so outside of the hospital. If so, that could mark a change of a stance and may help to create more health awareness in mitigating the spread of the virus.

Japan reaffirms that state of emergency declaration is not needed for now

Tokyo finds another 119 new coronavirus cases today

Japan economy minister, Yasutoshi Nishimura, is out to reaffirm that there is no need to declare another state of emergency in Tokyo just yet despite the consistent jump in the number of coronvirus cases in the capital over the past two weeks.
The count today may be skewed due to the ‘weekend effect’, with Tokyo having previously reported over 200 new cases each day over the last four days before this:
Tokyo

Heavy rainfall in China – 433 rivers have flooded

China’s ministry of water resources (via Global Times)

  • 433 rivers have flooded in China
  • 33 rivers have recorded their highest level in history
Further (Reuters):
  • China raised its flood response alert on Sunday to the second highest level
  • heavy rain in regions along the Yangtze River
  • eastern provinces of Jiangsu and Jiangxi among the worst hit

Saudi Aramco has reduced the volume of crude it will supply to Asia

Reuters report citing four unnamed sources that the world’s largest oil exporter has cut August heavy crude supply for some Asian refiners

  • at least four buyers in Asia
  • cuts were mainly for Arab Heavy crude
No further details in the Reuters report.

Nikkei 225 closes higher by 2.22% at 22,784.74

Asian equities buoyed to kick start the new week

Nikkei 13-07

It has been a solid session for Asian equities, with the Nikkei closing at a one-month high while we are also seeing the Hang Seng post 1.1% gains and the Shanghai Composite also seen higher by 1.9% currently.

The positive spillovers from US trading at the end of last week is helping, but also the fact that US futures are keeping more optimistic so far today.
Some market participants are pointing to this Pfizer, BioNTech vaccine story as a factor, following the more positive results that were reported two weeks ago here.
In any case, risk is on and the market is looking to keep the more positive mood going into European trading today. As such, the dollar is weaker across the board alongside the yen, with AUD/USD hovering around 0.6980 currently.

AUD/USD to drop back to 0.64 by year end – global economy weakening, China retaliation

A brief summary from a late week Rabobank note on the Australian dollar:

  • investors are currently over-estimating the ability of the global economy to bounce back from the pandemic
Combined with:
  • any news that China could be targeting Australian exports in retaliation for the government’s political stance would also leave AUD vulnerable
Rabo’s view is thus:
  • we see risk of a drop in sentiment by the end of the year 
  • likely to drag AUD/USD lower
  • forecast AUD/USD at 0.64 on a six-month view
A brief summary from a late week Rabobank note on the Australian dollar:

Here’s a EUR/USD forecast (to 1.15) with the ECB expected to be optimistic this week

The European Central Bank meet this week, preview below.

  • Meeting Thursday 16 July 2020
  • Policy announcement at 1145GMT (policy likely unchanged)
Euro forecast via Danske (this from late last week):
  • We remain constructive and expect the broad USD to decline over the coming months
  • 3 month forecast is 1.15
On the upcoming ECB policy meeting
  • we expect a repetition of recent comments from various governing council members, thereby striking a cautiously optimistic tone compared to the June projections. 
  • We also expect they may decide not to use the EUR1,350bn PEPP envelope in full. 
  • No new initiatives are expected next week
  • Markets may not be prepared for a ‘less dovish’ message
  • with abundant liquidity, PEPP and APP still ongoing
  • Our key expectation is that the ECB will reiterate its stance towards supporting a recovery, with, not least, a focus on sovereign spreads. 
For spot FX,
  • the direction and stance of the ECB and euro area fiscal politics are, in our view, quite well priced and communicated (though to a lesser extent when it comes to the outcome for Brexit). In turn, it will be the breath and speed of the global recovery that sets the tone in EUR/USD, and mostly through the USD leg

European Central Bank preview