The Song Remains The Same – this is from nearly 100 years ago.
Archives of “May 2020” month
rssHow hesitant would you be to take a coronavirus vaccine?
According to a poll by Reuters/Ipsos, a quarter of Americans have little or no interest in taking a coronavirus vaccine
The survey was conducted on 13 May to 19 May, and gathered 4,428 respondents with 14% saying that they were ‘not at all interested’ in taking a vaccine and a further 10% saying that they were ‘not very interested’.
That said, an important thing to point out is that the hesitance can be tied back to the record-breaking pace that pharmaceutical companies are working at to churn out a vaccine.
Among those who expressed little or no interest in taking a vaccine, nearly half said that they were worried about the speed in which one is being developed – with more than 40% believing that the vaccine may be riskier than the disease itself.
UK May flash services PMI 27.8 vs 24.0 expected
Latest data released by Markit/CIPS – 21 May 2020
- Prior 13.4
- Manufacturing PMI 40.6 vs 37.2 expected
- Prior 32.6
- Composite PMI 28.9 vs 25.7
- Prior 13.8
Much like the euro area readings earlier, this just reaffirms the bottoming in business activity seen in April with things improving in the month of May – relative to the prior month.
The details still aren’t pretty though as rapid declines are still seen in new work and employment across the UK private sector, with both rates contracting further – only outpaced by the record decline seen in April.
Markit notes that:
“The UK economy remains firmly locked in an unprecedented downturn, with business activity and employment continuing to slump at alarming rates in May. Although the pace of decline has eased since April’s record collapse, May saw the second largest monthly falls in output and jobs seen over the survey’s 22-year history, the rates of decline continuing to far exceed anything seen previously.
“Travel and tourism firms, hotels, restaurants and producers of consumer goods such as clothing were again the hardest hit, reflecting virus containment measures, but this remains a shockingly broad-based downturn with very few companies left unscathed by the COVID-19 pandemic.
“An improvement in business confidence about the year ahead for a second successive month is welcome news, and the easing of restrictions in coming months should help boost activity in some sectors as we head into the summer.
“However, the UK looks set to see a frustratingly slow recovery, given the likely slower pace of opening up the economy relative to other countries which have seen fewer COVID-19 cases. Virus related restrictions, widespread job insecurity and weak demand will be exacerbated by growing business uncertainty regarding Brexit. We are consequently expecting GDP to fall by almost 12% in 2020. While the quarterly rate of decline looks likely to peak at around 20% in the second quarter, the recovery will be measured in years not months.”
The full report can be found here.
Gold MAs
Airlines on the verge of bankruptcy: Should we sell stocks?
A more in-depth look at airlines stocks
A month has hardly passed since the publication of my article about airlines, and the market is already full of rumors about one of the largest airlines approaching bankruptcy. In that post, I tried to give the soft version of the situation; moreover, it was my individual opinion which could be a mistake. However, time shows that things are worse than I expected.
Today, I will reveal other aspects of risks in the sector of air transportation and give hints on how to make money on airlines stocks; also, we already have the information about the income of airlines in the first quarter.
As I wrote earlier, 10 airlines asked the US government for financial help, thus increasing the debt load. As long as the flow of passengers has dried out, the debts will be extremely hard to pay off. Apart from the debt, the company also needs maintenance, which includes expenses on salaries, the maintenance of airplanes, etc.
Before airlines got in trouble, clients used to buy tickets several months before the flight with a good discount. One side spent less on their trips while the other could plan flights more efficiently.
What has changed these days?
Relevant?
Current uptrend is around 6 weeks or so – this is just a template from history – anything can happen.
Japan preliminary PMIs (May): Manufacturing 38.4 (prior 41.9) & Services 25.3 (prior 21.5)
Jibun Bank / Markit preliminary PMIs for May
Manufacturing 38.4
- prior 41.9
Services 25.3
- prior 21.5
Composite 27.4
- prior 25.8
Joe Hayes, Economist at IHS Markit:
- “Latest PMI data provide yet another shocking insight into the devastating impact of the COVID-19 outbreak. While the rate of decline in services activity has eased very slightly, plummeting demand for goods is finally catching up with the manufacturing sector, which posted an accelerated decline in production during May.
- “Taking the April and May PMI surveys together, we see that both are indicative of GDP falling at an annual rate in excess of 10%. It is clear that the economy is going to contract for a third successive quarter, with the hit to Q2 likely to be potentially as large as 20% on the previous year.
- “Nevertheless, the dynamics in the economy are clearly evolving. As Japan eases the state of emergency measures, the services economy can begin its gradual recovery. However, the damage to the manufacturing sector could continue to worsen as global trade conditions deteriorate and the global economic recovery is slow.”
China’s Wuhan has officially banned the eating of wild animals
Wuhan was the epicentre of the coronavirus pandemic in China. Its a big city, with a population of around 11m people.
City authorities there have officially banned the eating of all wild animals,
- Wuhan will become a “wildlife sanctuary”
- virtually all hunting of wild animals to be banned (exception for “scientific research, population regulation, monitoring of epidemic diseases and other special circumstances”).
- also introduced controls on the breeding of all wild animals
- prohibiting any to be reared for food
The coronavirus spread from bats to people in wet markets in the city.
Venezuela legal action against the Bank of England to hand over $1.13bn of gold
The Central Bank of Venezuela has stepped up its claim against the BoE for Venezuela’s gold reserves.
- Venezuela requested the Bank of England to sell part of its gold reserves there and send the proceeds to the United Nations to help with the country’s response to the cov1 COVID-19 outbreak
That was in April. This goes back further, though, the Bank of England has delayed the transfer of 31 tonnes of Venezuelan gold stored there to Maduro’s government since 2018. The UK does not acknowledge Maduro as Venezuela’s legitimate leader.
The BoE stores gold for many developing countries.
Via Guardian (not fresh news but ICYMI … keep an eye out if the gold does hit the market I guess)
