Jibun Bank / Markit preliminary PMIs for May
Joe Hayes, Economist at IHS Markit:
- “Latest PMI data provide yet another shocking insight into the devastating impact of the COVID-19 outbreak. While the rate of decline in services activity has eased very slightly, plummeting demand for goods is finally catching up with the manufacturing sector, which posted an accelerated decline in production during May.
- “Taking the April and May PMI surveys together, we see that both are indicative of GDP falling at an annual rate in excess of 10%. It is clear that the economy is going to contract for a third successive quarter, with the hit to Q2 likely to be potentially as large as 20% on the previous year.
- “Nevertheless, the dynamics in the economy are clearly evolving. As Japan eases the state of emergency measures, the services economy can begin its gradual recovery. However, the damage to the manufacturing sector could continue to worsen as global trade conditions deteriorate and the global economic recovery is slow.”
Quick look as PMI impact settles
The weak PMI data was not a surprise, but the flow through into service data is confirmation of the feared inevitable, hence the weakness we see in the EUR/USD, German Bonds rising and European equities down. Dax now increasing its losses and at -1.48%.
So, the strongest currencies include the JPY and CHF (on risk aversion) with the EURO and the GBP the weakest on the session. Watch out for further risk souring.