Archives of “February 2020” month

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Bitcoin may be usurped by Tesla for now, but still looking toward $10K

  
Analysis, BITCOIN

Trades at the highest level since October 28.

The price of bitcoin reached a high today of $9885 on the Coinbase exchange. That was the highest level since October 28 and just $115 away from the magical $10K.  The last time the price trade above 10,000 was on October 26 when the price spiked up to $10,544 rotating quickly back to down. The last close above the $10,000 level was back on the September 22.
Trades at the highest level since October 28.
Looking at the hourly chart above, the price has been moving to the upside since bottoming on Tuesday at the $9078.05 level. The high today that the price up 8.84% from that low. It’s not Tesla but it still was a good rebound to the upside off of the low.
During the week, the price did trade below and that back above its 100 and 200 hour moving averages. Those moving averages tend to define the bias for the digital currency. Stay above is more bullish.  Move below is more bearish.
In the trading this week the price did move below the 200 hour moving average on Tuesday, but on Wednesday when the 2 moving averages were converged near the $9300 level,  and the price moved back above each, the sellers turned to buyers and the price extended higher.
The 100 hour moving average is currently at $9476.19 and the 200 hour moving averages at $9423.94 (with each rising) . It will take a move below each to turn the bias back to the downside. Until then, the buyers have more technical control.
Now, there may be sellers that lean against the $10K level. However, I would expect if broken, there would more by momentum in the direction of the break.  So don’t risk a lot on the trade.
For now though, things are looking good for bitcoin investors with a key level looming above…. It may not be Tesla, but perhaps it is better it isn’t too.

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Fed: Downside risks eased in late 2019 but virus is a new threat

  
  Analysis
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Comments in the semi-annual monetary policy

  • US economy grew moderately last year
  • Labor market strengthened further and inflation continued to run below target
  • Probability of recession in the next year has ‘fallen noticeably’ in recent months
  • Downside risks seem to have receded in late 2019 due to decrease in trade tensions
  • Global slowdown in manufacturing and trade appears to be nearing an end while consumer spending and services activities continue to hold up
  • Possible virus spillovers present a new risk
  • Asset valuations and business debt are elevated; leverage in the financial sector appears low by historical norms
  • Fragilities in the corporate and financial sector in China are a risk
  • Market conditions were quite calm around year end after added liquidity
There’s nothing groundbreaking here.

US January nonfarm payroll report is due Friday 7 February 2020 – preview

  
  Analysis
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Snippet from Goldman Sachs on what they expect

  • +190k
  • unemployment 3.5%
Citing:
  • initial jobless claims declined further
  • ADP job gains were significantly larger than expected
  • an unseasonably dry survey week in the Northeast and Ohio Valley is set to boost weather-sensitive categories
  • January job growth tends to accelerate in tight labour markets, as labor supply constraints may lead firms to implement fewer end-of-year layoffs

Downgrade for Japan GDP forecast – a recession is now the most likely scenario

  
Analysis, Economy

Citi has lopped its economic growth forecast for Japan in response to China’s coronavirus outbreak spread

Will delay economic recovery

  • exports will slow to China
  • tourist numbers from China will be lower

Citi looks for Q1 GDP at an annualised -0.3% … A huge drop from the previous forecast at +0.8%

  • growth to resume in Q2 but at a much slower pace than prior expectations

BREAKING :Apple orders for 45m AirPods at risk from coronavirus

  
  Analysis

Apple’s plan to drastically ramp up AirPods production is under threat from the coronavirus outbreak, which has forced suppliers in China to halt operations for two weeks and could leave them short of components even after work resumes on Monday, multiple sources told the Nikkei Asian Review.

The U.S. tech giant had ordered its suppliers to produce up to 45 million units in the first half of the year to keep up with surging demand for the wireless earphones.

Now, however, the current stock of AirPods is running low, with most of the finished products reserved for Apple’s own online and offline stores, the sources said. Currently, the standard AirPods are still in stock, according to Apple’s official online store, while there is a one-month waiting period for the premium AirPods Pro launched last September.  

Luxshare Precision Industry, also known as Luxshare-ICT, Goertek and Inventec, the three key manufacturers of the AirPods, have halted the majority of production since the Lunar New Year break began, two people familiar with the matter told Nikkei. The three companies now have at most two weeks’ worth of materials and components needed for AirPods assembly, and must wait for component makers across China to restart operations in order to receive fresh supplies, the people said.

“Because of the virus outbreak, it has already been about two weeks since the assemblers have shipped any new AirPods series,” said a person familiar with the situation. “All of the stores and carriers selling Apple products are really counting on suppliers to resume work next week.”

The three major AirPods assemblers, like other Apple suppliers, are scheduled to resume work on Monday, but their production utilization rates may reach just 50% at best in the first week given the current conditions, a source familiar with the matter said. (more…)

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