Archives of “February 1, 2020” day

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Panama canal authority says vessels arriving via infected countries must report

  
  Analysis
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If they shut down the Panamal canal, that’s all she wrote for global growth

The Panama canal authority says vessels arriving in canal waters that have passed through couhntries with confirmed cases of coronavirus must report this to Panama authorities.
They say the measures are necessary to keep the virus out of the country.
There’s no indication they’re stopping traffic yet but it’s a risk.
Six percent of all global trade passes through the Panama canal and a big chunk of that is from China. It’s the second-largest user after the US.
If the canal shuts to vessels that have been to China, that’s a big hit to global growth. It’s a long way to the Strait of Magellan.

Trump puts visa restrictions on six countries

  
  Analysis
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Travel ban isn’t related to coronavirus

Trump has expanded his travel ban to six additional countries:
  • Nigeria
  • Myanmar
  • Sudan
  • Eritrea
  • Kyrgyzstan
  • Tanzania
Today is the three-year anniversary of the ban affecting Iran, Syria, Libya, Venezuela, North Korea, Yemen and Somalia.
Bulgaria Belarus was floated on the list earlier this week but was removed.

CFTC commitments of traders: EUR shorts increase.

  
Analysis, Forex
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Weekly FX futures positioning data from the CFTC

  • EUR short 59K vs 47K short last week. Shorts increased by 12K
  • GBP long 18K vs 25K long last week. Longs decreased by 7K
  • JPY short 36K vs 45K short last week. Shorts increased by 9k
  • CHF loan 3.5K vs 1.5 long last week. Longs increased by 2K
  • AUD short 27k vs 19K short last week. Shorts increased by 8K
  • NZD long 2K vs 1.8K longlast week. Longs increased by 0.2K
  • CAD long 35k vs 38K long last week. Longs decreased by 3K

Highlights:

  • EUR shorts had the biggest change in week (increase of 12K to the short side).
  • The EUR short 59K is the largest speculative position
  • JPY shorts trimmed. I have to think that there might be more liquidation over the last few days on the back of the coronavirus.
Below is the history of the EUR. It has been negative since the 1st week of October 2018.
Weekly FX futures positioning data from the CFTC_

China-US flights to be restricted to 7 airports starting Sunday

  
  Analysis
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China flight entries to be kept to 7 airports

The US also announced that all Americans returning from Hubei province will be quarantined for two weeks.
The French press reported earlier in the week that China demanded that all people being airlifted out of Hubei be quarantined by two weeks. The thinking was that they didn’t want to be responsible for an outbreak elsewhere — something that would trigger anti-China sentiment. The US first said it was going to have a voluntary quarantine but it now appears as though they have fallen in line.

Stocks end ugly as weekend coronavirus fears can’t slow the slide

  
Analysis, US Market
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Dow down -600 points/-2.09%

The US stocks end an ugly day near the lows for the day. The Dow industrial average fell by over 600 points/2%. It was the worst day since August 23.  Moreover the Dow ended the month lower for the 1st time in 5 months. For the S&P it had their worst day since October 2 . The Dow ended the month lower for the 1st time in 5 months.  The S&P and NASDAQ had their worst start to the year in 5 years.  You get the picture.

The final numbers are showing:
  • S&P fell -58.14 points or -1.77% to 3225.52
  • Nasdaq fell -148 points or -1.59% to 9150.94
  • Dow fell -603.41 points or -2.09% to 28256.03.
For the month, the Nasdaq did still and positive for the month, but the S&P and Dow closed the month lower.
  • S&P, -0.16%
  • Nasdaq, +1.99%
  • Dow, -0.99%
In Europe today the major indices also closed near session lows. On what happened and Portugal but the PSI 20 did peek out a gain for the day.
Dow down -600 points/-2.09%
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