Archives of “September 2019” month

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Crucial Update :US Dollar Index ,EURO ,YEN ,GBP ,INR ,CAD ,AUD ,PESO ,WTI ,SPX 500 -Anirudh Sethi

  
Analysis, Crude, Forex
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The Japanese yen and Canadian dollar were the only major currencies to gain against the US dollar last week.  They are also the only major currencies to appreciate against the dollar so far this year.  US President Trump’s apparent playing down of the pressure to strike a partial deal with China before the 2020 election weighed on stocks and lifted the so-called safe-haven currencies ahead of the weekend.  When everything was said and done, from the attack on Saudi Arabia to the money market squeeze in the US and the Fed’s rate cut, the dollar remained mostly within well-worn ranges.
The exceptions were idiosyncratic.  Growth concerns, both globally and domestically, saw the New Zealand dollar fall to new four-year lows ahead of the weekend.  The RBNZ meets next week, and the market has about six basis points of easing, or about a 25% chance of a cut.  The Australian dollar fell in four of last week’s five sessions and the day rose was by 1/100 of a penny, according to Bloomberg.  Sterling had threatened to break high in the second half of the week, but Ireland’s Deputy Prime Minister helped put Juncker’s seeming optimism in context.  UK Prime Minister Johnson reportedly acknowledged that the EU is unlikely to agree entirely with his proposal at the critical summit in the middle of next month.  These developments pushed sterling a cent off the highest level since July (~$1.2580).
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Watch Warren Buffett’s first ever television interview

  
Analysis, Video
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Warren Buffett feels like he’s been around forever but he was far from a household name until the late 1990s.
His first television interview didn’t take place until 1985, when he was 55-years old. What’s incredible is that he was saying then is consistent to everything he’s said in the 34 years since.
It underscores that trading isn’t about information, it’s about process. It’s his same ‘circle of competence game’ that doesn’t include chasing what’s hot.
“I don’t have to win at every game,” he said. “There are no called strikes in this game, they just keep pitching, you don’t have to swing at any of them.”
Another interesting point for the long-term investor is that he was cautious of excess noise, something that the internet has brought everywhere.
Given all the changes in the world since this interview — and the remarkable outperformance of tech — it’s truly amazing (and telling) that he’s had so much success.

Schedule for Week of September 22, 2019

  
  Analysis
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The key reports this week are August New Home sales, and the third estimate of Q2 GDP.Other key indicators include Personal Income and Outlays for August and Case-Shiller house prices for July.For manufacturing, the Richmond and Kansas City Fed manufacturing surveys will be released this week.
—– Monday, Sept 23rd —–
8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for August. This is a composite index of other data.
—– Tuesday, Sept 24th —–
 Case-Shiller House Prices Indices9:00 AM ET: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for July.This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the most recent report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).The consensus is for a 2.1% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index for July.9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for July 2018. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.10:00 AM ET: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for September.
—– Wednesday, Sept 25th —–
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. New Home Sales10:00 AM: New Home Sales for August from the Census Bureau.This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the sales rate for last month.The consensus is for 665 thousand SAAR, up from 635 thousand in July.
—– Thursday, Sept 26th —–
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 211 thousand initial claims, up from 208 thousand the previous week.8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 2nd quarter 2018 (Third estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 2.0% annualized in Q2, unchanged from the second estimate of 2.0%.10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for August. The consensus is 0.6% increase in the index.11:00 AM: the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for September. This is the last of the regional surveys for September.
—– Friday, Sept 27th —–
8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for August from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 1.2% decrease in durable goods orders.8:30 AM: Personal Income and Outlays for August. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.3% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2%.10:00 AM: University of Michigan’s Consumer sentiment index (Final for September). The consensus is for a reading of 92.0. Read more at https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2019/09/schedule-for-week-of-september-22-2019.html#ufpCwOoLSeldtU2e.99

Iran envoys says won’t rule out war

  
Analysis, Politics
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Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif refused to rule out military conflict in the Middle East after the US sent more troops and weapons to Saudi Arabia in response to an attack on oil fields the US has blamed on the Islamic Republic.

“I’m not confident that we can avoid a war,” Zarif said in an interview with CBS to be broadcast Sunday on its “Face the Nation” program.

“I’m confident that we will not start one, but I’m confident that whoever starts one will not be the one who finishes it.”

When asked to elaborate, Zarif said: “That means that there won’t be a limited war.”

Zarif was interviewed in New York, where he will attend the United Nations General Assembly session.

The US said Friday it will send a “moderate” number of troops to the Middle East and missile defence capabilities to the Saudis in response to last weekend’s attack on oil facilities.

The foreign minister criticised the move. “I think it’s posturing,” Zarif said, according to a transcript provided by CBS. “I think it’s all going the wrong direction in addressing this issue.”

US and Saudi analyses of the attack have described the strike as complex, involving a mix of low-flying drones and cruise missiles coming from the north.

The attack exposed vulnerabilities in Saudi Arabia’s defence capabilities, despite the Kingdom having spent hundreds of billions of dollars on weaponry in recent years.

American officials blame Iran for the attack that knocked out half the production of oil from a key Saudi field.

Houthi rebels fighting a Saudi-led coalition in Yemen took credit for the attack.

“I’m confident that Iran did not play a role,” Zarif said. Anybody who “conducts an impartial investigation will reach that conclusion,” he said.

Saudi Arabia floats change to Japan oil supply, sparks concern

  
  Analysis
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Saudi Aramco has notified Japan’s top oil distributor about a potential change in shipments, stoking concerns about the kingdom’s ability to supply crude following attacks on its major refineries a week ago, Nikkei learned Saturday.

State-owned Aramco did not say why it wants to change the oil grade it supplies to JXTG Nippon Oil & Energy from light to heavy and medium, starting in October, JXTG officials said.

But the move indicates that the Saudi national oil company is having a hard time restoring its production as quickly as it has promised, despite repeated assurances that the company’s supply would be restored by the end of September.

Two of Aramco’s refineries were attacked in what is believed to be a drone and cruise missile strikes on Sept. 14. The attacks, which were claimed by Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, knocked out more than half the country’s oil production.

JXTG officials said they suspect that Aramco is taking more time than expected to repair its desulfurization facility, which is necessary to produce light-grade crude used in the production of gasoline and light gas oil.

Saudi Arabia accounted for almost 40% of Japanese oil imports in fiscal 2018. (more…)

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