Archives of “August 2019” month

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Gibraltar releases Iranian tanker

  
  Analysis

Not clear where the tanker is headed

Not clear where the tanker is headed
A Gibraltar court released the Grace 1 tanker on Saturday and the ship is preparing for departure.
The move came despite US objections and appeals. The US government issued a warrant to seize the ship, saying all oil aboard the ship is subject to forfeiture due to a “scheme to unlawfully access the US financial system to support illicit shipments” of oil in violations of sanctions.
Refinitiv datea shows the status of the ship changed from ‘at anchor’ to ‘underway using engine.’
Iran seized a British oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz earlier this month, likely in retaliation for the seizure. At the time, the move heightened tensions and boosted oil prices.
WTI closed the week at $54.87 and Brent at $58.64.
In other oil news, a Saudi oil plant in the Shaybah field was attacked by drones Saturday, causing a limited fire. Saudi officials said the fire was contained and operations were not affected.

quotations and euphemisms from : Reminiscences of a Stock Operator

  
Analysis, Education
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  • It takes a man a long time to learn all the lessons of his mistakes. They say there are two sides to everything. But there is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side.
  • I think it was a long step forward in my trading education when I realized at last that when old Mr. Partridge kept on telling the other customers, Well, you know this is a bull market! he really meant to tell them that the big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements that is, not in reading the tape, but in sizing up the entire market and its trend.
  • The reason is that a man may see straight and clearly and yet become impatient or doubtful when the market takes its time about doing as he figured it must do. That is why so many men in Wall Street, who are not at all in the sucker class, not even in the third grade, nevertheless lose money. The market does not beat them. They beat themselves, because though they have brains they cannot sit tight. Old Turkey was dead right in doing and saying what he did. He had not only the courage of his convictions but the intelligent patience to sit tight.
  • The average man doesn’t wish to be told that it is a bull or bear market. What he desires is to be told specifically which particular stock to buy or sell. He wants to get something for nothing. He does not wish to work. He doesn’t even wish to have to think. It is too much bother to have to count the money that he picks up from the ground. We love volatility and days like the one in which the stock market took a big plunge, for being on the right side of moving markets is what makes us money. A stagnant market in any commodity, such as grain has experienced recently, means there’s no opportunity for us to make money.
  • A man will risk half his fortune in the stock market with less reflection than he devotes to the selection of a medium-priced automobile.

Guidelines from Richard Donchian

  
Analysis, Education
  • Beware of acting immediately on a widespread public opinion. Even if correct, it will usually delay the move.
  • From a period of dullness and inactivity, watch for and prepare to follow a move in the direction in which volume increases.
  • Limit losses and ride profits, irrespective of all other rules.
  • Light commitments are advisable when market position is not certain. Clearly defined moves are signaled frequently enough to make life interesting and concentration on these moves will prevent unprofitable whip-sawing.
  • Seldom take a position in the direction of an immediately preceding three-day move. Wait for a one-day reversal.
  • Judicious use of stop orders is a valuable aid to profitable trading. Stops may be used to protect profits, to limit losses, and from certain formations such as triangular foci to take positions. Stop orders are apt to be more valuable and less treacherous if used in proper relation to the chart formation.
  • In a market in which upswings are likely to equal or exceed downswings, heavier position should be taken for the upswings for percentage reasons a decline from 50 to 25 will net only 50 percent profit, whereas an advance from 25 to 50 will net 100 percent profit.
  • In taking a position, price orders are allowable. In closing a position, use market orders.
  • Buy strong-acting, strong-background commodities and sell weak ones, subject to all other rules.
  • Moves in which rails lead or participate strongly are usually more worth following than moves in which rails lag.
  • A study of the capitalization of a company, the degree of activity of an issue, and whether an issue is a lethargic truck horse or a spirited race horse is fully as important as a study of statistical reports.

Key events and releases for next week’s trading

  
  Analysis
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Fed Chair Powell speaks at Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on Friday

The key event next week her until Friday at 10 AM ET/1400 GMT, when Fed Chair Powell is scheduled to speak at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium.  The title of his speech is “Challenges for Monetary Policy”.

Chairman Jerome Powell will speak at the Jackson Hole economic policy symposium

The meeting minutes from the last FOMC meeting will be released on Wednesday at 2 PM ET/1800 GMT.   The market is very sensitive to what the Fed might do at their next policy meeting in September. There is a 100% chance for a rate cut, with the market currently pricing in a 32% chance for 50 bps.
Other key events and releases for the week include:
Tuesday:
  • RBA monetary policy meeting minutes. 9:30 PM ET (Monday/0130 GMT
  • Canada manufacturing sales.  8:30 AM ET/1230 GMT
  • FOMC member Quarles speaks. 6 PM ET/2200 GMT
Wednesday
  • Canada CPI. 8:30 AM ET/1230 GMT
  • US FOMC meeting minutes.  2 PM ET/1800 GMT
Thursday
  • France flash manufacturing/service PMI.  3:15 AM ET/0715 GMT
  • German flash manufacturing/service PMI.  3:30 AM ET/0730 GMT
  • EU flash manufacturing/service PMI.  4 AM ET/0800 GMT
  • US flash manufacturing PMI. 9:45 AM ET/1345 GMT
  • Jackson Hole economic policy symposium begins. Day 1
Friday:
  • New Zealand retail sales.  6:45 PM ET/2245 GMT
  • Canada retail sales. 8:30 AM ET/1230 GMT
  • Fed chair Jerome Powell speak. 10 AM ET/1400 GMT
  • Jackson Hole economic policy symposium. Day 2
Saturday:
  • Jackson Hole economic policy symposium. Day 3

CFTC commitment of traders: GBP shorts trimmed modestly. JPY longs increased.

  
Analysis, Forex
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Forex futures positioning data among noncommercial traders for the week ending August 13, 2019

  • EUR short 47K vs 44K short last week. Shorts increased by 3K
  • GBP short 96K vs 102K short last week. Shorts decreased by 6K
  • JPY long 25K vs 11K short last week. Longs increased by 14K
  • CHF short 13k vs 16k short last week. Shorts trimmed by 3K
  • AUD short 63k vs 55k short last week. Shorts increased by 8K
  • NZD short 13K vs 12K short last week. Shorts increased by 1K
  • CAD long 14K vs 24K long last week.  Longs trimmed by 10K

Highlights:

  • JPY and CAD remain long, while the other major currencies maintain short position
  • The JPY longs increased by 14K. That is the largest long position since November 2016 (see chart below).
  • CAD longs were trimmed by 10K.
  • GBP shorts were trimmed modestly in the current week to 96K but the position remains the largest speculative position. The GBP moved modestly higher in the week.

JPY longs are the largest since November 2016

US Indices close the session with solid gains. Erase more of the declines from this week

  
Analysis, US Market

Major indices close up 1.2% or better

The major US indices are closing with provisional gains of 1.2% or better.
The numbers are showing
  • The S&P index rose  41.12 points or 1.44% at 2888.71
  • The NASDAQ index rose 129.38 points or 1.67% at 7895.99
  • The Dow rose 306.62 points or 1.20% at 25886.01.
For the week, despite the solid gains today, the major indices are ending the week with losses (but it could have been worse).
  • The S&P index fell -1.03%
  • The NASDAQ index fell -0.79%
  • The Dow fell -1.53%
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