Archives of “February 2019” month

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16 Truths About Trading

  
  Education

1) 45-55% (Average winning % of any given trader)

2) Traders do not mind losing money, they mind losing money doing stupid things

3) You can lose money on a Great trade

4) Focus on the Trade, Not the Money

5) Trading is a game of Probabilities, not Perfection

6) Trade to make money, not to be right

7) Nicht Spielen Zum Spass (if it doesn’t make sense, don’t do it)

8) The market does not know how much you are up or down, so don’t trade that way (Think: “If I had no trade on right now, what would I do”)

9) Learn to endure the pain of your gains

10) There is no ideal trader personality type (more…)

Respect the Trend

  
  Education
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Traders should equate the general market to that of a big river with individuals stocks as floating logs. If ones objective was to ride in the general direction of the current, they would not stand on the bank looking for a log that was bucking that trend? Furthermore, even if they found one that temporarily headed in the wrong direction, more than likely it would only be a matter of time before the log reversed course and also headed in the way of all the other logs.

 

Traders would be wise to understand there are 3 directions a market can travel; up, down or sideways. As long as we trade stocks, this will be true – and just as valuable as Livermore’s seasoned trading friend’s advice was then it would be today.

Markets, like rivers, don’t change courses overnight – or even in a few days. It often takes many months if not years to properly establish a trend. Simply pull back any weekly chart over the past couple years and assess where the trend is going. If you aren’t quite sure, then more than likely cash remains the place for you.

Understand this basic, yet key, principle of trading, and you will already be well ahead of most.

Game Theory Over: Bank Of France's Noyer Says Britain Should Be Downgraded, Not France

  
Analysis, Education
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To anyone who doubted that the gloves are now fully off between France and Britain, we bring you exhibit A: Speaking in an interview with local newspaper Le Telegramme de Brest to be published later on Thursday, Bank of France head and ECB member Christian Noyer saidthat a downgrade of France’s AAA credit rating would not be justified and ratings agencies are making decisions based more on politics than economics and questioned whether the use of ratings agencies to guide investors was still valid. “In the arguments they (ratings agencies) present, there are more political arguments than economic ones,” said Noyer, the head of the Bank of France and a member of the ECB’s governing council. “The downgrade does not appear to me to be justified when considering economic fundamentals,” Noyer said. “Otherwise, they should start by downgrading Britain which has more deficits, as much debt, more inflation, less growth than us and where credit is slumping.” The bolded sentence confirms two things: i) that the Nash equilibrium in Europe is now fatally broken, because when you have the head of one central bank doing all he can to throw another central bank under the bus, that’s pretty much game (theory) over; and ii) when he said that “the agencies have become incomprehensible and irrational. They threaten even when states have taken strong and positive decisions. One could think that the use of agencies to guide investors is no longer valid.” it proves that this amateur has no more understanding of basic finance than your generic Reuters blogger, both of whom apparently fail to comprehend that there are several hundred thousand bond and loan indentures in the real world, not the world of “S&P has no credibility so ignore it”, which are loaded with covenants discussing springing liens, rating indexed interest levels and collateral thresholds, all of which are based on a sovereign and corporate rating, and all come into play in a completely unpredictable way (hint AIG – the reason why AIG imploded was because a rating agency downgrade unleashed a terminal margin call) when there is a rating downgrade. Such as that of France in a few hours to days top. (more…)

List of Things I Do When I Plan a Trade

  
  Education
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planfirst1. My better trades come when I have found a place to quietly think about the trade idea, before I take the trade. I lay down for a few minutes and let my mind roam. This settles me down at an otherwise tense moment. It also allows me to clearly consider what I like or don’t like about the trade.

2. It’s important to me to ignore outside influences when I am planning a trade. I’d rather pay attention to my own reasons for the trade, instead of someone else’s views of the currency pair that have nothing to do with the indicators and other things that I look at when wanting to buy or sell. (more…)

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