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Singapore loosens monetary policy for first time in 3.5 years

  
Analysis, Economy
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Singapore has moved to loosen its monetary policy for the first time in three-and-a-half years to help offset slowing economic momentum due to prolonged U.S.-China trade tensions.

As a small, heavily trade-dependent economy, the country has been heavily exposed to the tariff battle between two of its largest trading partners. Exports have been falling at a double-digit pace from last year’s levels.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore, the central bank, said in its semiannual policy statement Monday that it would slightly decrease the slope of the Singapore dollar’s exchange policy band, a move to guide a weaker appreciation of the local currency.

The nation’s monetary policy is based on its exchange rate whereby the Singapore dollar is managed against a basket of currencies representing the country’s major trading partners.

With this move, Singapore follows regional peers such as Indonesia, the Philippines and India, all of which have eased monetary policy by cutting interest rates in recent months.

Singapore’s adjustment comes as trade-related industries stagnate under pressure from the U.S.-China standoff, though economists say domestically focused sectors have held up better. (more…)

Schedule for Week of September 22, 2019

  
  Analysis
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The key reports this week are August New Home sales, and the third estimate of Q2 GDP.

Other key indicators include Personal Income and Outlays for August and Case-Shiller house prices for July.

For manufacturing, the Richmond and Kansas City Fed manufacturing surveys will be released this week.

—– Monday, Sept 23rd —–

8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for August. This is a composite index of other data.

—– Tuesday, Sept 24th —–
 

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices9:00 AM ET: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for July.

This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the most recent report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The consensus is for a 2.1% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index for July.

9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for July 2018. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.

10:00 AM ET: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for September.

—– Wednesday, Sept 25th —–

7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

 

New Home Sales10:00 AM: New Home Sales for August from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the sales rate for last month.

The consensus is for 665 thousand SAAR, up from 635 thousand in July.

—– Thursday, Sept 26th —–

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 211 thousand initial claims, up from 208 thousand the previous week.

8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 2nd quarter 2018 (Third estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 2.0% annualized in Q2, unchanged from the second estimate of 2.0%.

10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for August. The consensus is 0.6% increase in the index.

11:00 AM: the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for September. This is the last of the regional surveys for September.

—– Friday, Sept 27th —–

8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for August from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 1.2% decrease in durable goods orders.

8:30 AM: Personal Income and Outlays for August. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.3% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2%.

10:00 AM: University of Michigan’s Consumer sentiment index (Final for September). The consensus is for a reading of 92.0.
Read more at https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2019/09/schedule-for-week-of-september-22-2019.html#ufpCwOoLSeldtU2e.99

Wall Street ends higher as tech and oil stocks rally

  
Analysis, US Market
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Technology stocks led the advance for the broader US market as investors kept an eye on the strained geopolitics of the Gulf.

The S&P 500 finished 0.3 per cent higher on Monday, with an afternoon rally at one point putting up as much as 0.5 per cent. That also saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average turn positive and close fractionally higher, but it was tech names that led the way, with the Nasdaq Composite rising 0.7 per cent.

Brent crude, the international oil marker, was up 1.5 per cent to $63.43 a barrel, although that left it off earlier highs that took it up as much as 2 per cent after Iran seized a British-flagged tanker in the Gulf on Friday. Furthermore, Libyan output was interrupted after an unidentified group sabotaged production at the country’s largest field, according to its state oil company.

The S&P 500 energy sector was up 0.5 per cent, lagging only tech, as major producers including ExxonMobil, Chevron and ConocoPhillips turned positive during the afternoon session. Halliburton topped the leaderboard with a 9.2 per cent advance following an earnings beat.

European energy stocks fared better earlier on Monday, with a gain of 0.5 per cent for the Stoxx index tracking the sector standing out against a 0.1 per cent rise for the Europe-wide Stoxx 600. London’s FTSE 100 rose 0.1 per cent and Frankfurt’s Xetra Dax 30 was up 0.2 per cent. BP was among the top performers on the main UK index, with the oil major’s shares rising 1 per cent.

Bets that the Fed will aggressively cut rates at its policy meeting this month were being pared back. Bloomberg data showed that under 20 per cent of economists polled were forecasting a 50 basis point cut, down from about 40 per cent late last week. That followed confusion on Friday after the New York Fed clarified that an ultra-dovish speech from John Williams, its president, should not be seen as a guide to future policy.

Investor caution towards geopolitical issues in the Gulf, as well as debate over the prospect for monetary easing from the Federal Reserve, on Friday pushed gold to a six-year high. On Monday afternoon the metal was flat at $1,424.49 an ounce.

The Man Who Thinks He Can- Written some 100 years ago , which nicely captures the value of 'Self Belief'

  
  Education
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The Man Who Thinks He Can.
By Walter D.Wintle.
If you think you are beaten, you are
If you think you dare not, you don’t,
If you like to win, but you think you can’t
It is almost certain you won’t.
If you think you’ll lose, you’re lost
For out of the world we find,
Success begins with a fellow’s will
It’s all in the state of mind.
If you think you are outclassed, you are
You’ve got to think high to rise,
You’ve got to be sure of yourself before
You can ever win a prize.
Life’s battles don’t always go
To the stronger or faster man,
But soon or late the man who wins
Is the man WHO THINKS HE CAN!
Traders Must Read ……………….EveryDay

Tech Gained $1.7 Trillion in 2017

  
Analysis, Education
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“Between the FAANG quintet and China’s rivaling BAT companies, gains in the world’s top technology shares are nearing a whopping $1.7 trillion in market value this year.
That’s more than Canada’s entire economy, and exceeds the worth of Germany’s biggest 30 companies put together. The eight tech giants — Facebook Inc., Amazon Inc., Apple Inc., Netflix Inc. and Google parent Alphabet Inc., as well as their Asian peers Baidu Inc., Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and Tencent Holdings Ltd. — have amassed as much money in 2017 as Pacific Investment Management Co., one of the world’s biggest fund managers, has done in about 46 years.” (emphasis added)

The chart nearby shows some comparison veresus, DAX, Pimco and Canada!
 
Monster Tech Gains 2017 YTD
click for ginormous graphic

The "NEWS" has only two sources

  
  Education
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1. press releases from the government and businesses and non-profit agencies and celebrities and academics who are announcing to the world what they are (or claim to be) doing

2. journalists’ own “investigations”

There are no incentives for either group to minimize the “visibility” of poverty, any more than there were any incentives for missionary groups to tell the congregations back home that “actually the heathen seem quite content to remain unconverted”.

The government gets its money because of “problems”. Businesses want always to seem “charitable”. Non-profit agencies are in the business of “charity” and “problems”; and, as Jason Reitman’s wonderful script puts it, every celebrity needs a “cause”. No explanation is needed for the academics.

The Gravitational Constant of Markets

  
  Education
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The gravitational constant, G, is 6.7 x 10^-11 N-MM/kg. Is there a similar G in financial markets for the super hot stocks? It is conventional wisdom that information is analyzed faster and better today than 20 years ago. If that is true, then G has increased. But is it true? Or is the constant really human nature?

An anecdote:

Iomega, the (in)famous disk drive manufacturer that was going to take over the world, ipo-ed in June 1996. It went parabolic. And then flamed out. It took 22 months to trade back at its IPO price before descending into oblivion and a takeover by EMC for about 3$/share in 2008.

GoPro, the hip portable camera manufacturer (with a surfing dude for a CEO) was going to take over the world (and was the next BIG media company), ipo-ed in June 2014. It took 17 months for this stock to trade back at its IPO price amidst a flameout — and with yesterday’s news of a loss, is on its way to oblivion — to be acquired by Sony? for about $3/share in about 5 years? (more…)

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