Archives of “winning streak” tag

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Building a Winning Momentum

  
  Education
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History has recorded many great winning streaks.

Whether they were made in business, team sports, individual sports or other areas, they all had some common characteristics. They had a strong foundation, a belief in what they were doing and they took it one step at a time.

In trading, we can develop a winning streak if we decide to not always categorize winning with profits.

Success brings about more success, however if we decide we are a failure, then failure can also bring about more failure.

Ten Ways to Trade With an Edge

  
  Education
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An edge is an advantage that a trader has over his competitors, allowing him to generate and retain profits from other traders . There can be many types of  trading edges through risk management, psychological management, and through better trading methods.

Here are a few:

  1.  A selective trader that only trades the best set ups, trends, and stocks has the advantage of waiting for the fat pitch and not just swinging at every ball thrown his way.
  2. Simply using correct position sizing can put you in the top 10% of traders simply by not blowing out your account and staying in the game by maximizing winners and minimizing losers..
  3. Risking no more than 1% of your capital per trade brings your risk of ruin down to almost zero and allows the trader to survive losing streaks. You have the edge of being around to have a winning streak later on.
  4. Only taking trades with a risk-to-reward of 3 to 1 or better gives the opportunity to have bigger winners than losers in the long run which is needed to be profitable. 
  5. Trading in the direction of the trend in your time frame gives you an edge over those losing money by fighting the trend.
  6. Having the discipline to follow a trading plan gives you an edge over those that trade based on fear and greed. (more…)

Traders: When to be Flexible & when to be Rigid

  
  Education
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  1. raders should have a very flexible mindset about which way a trade can go when they enter it, but be very rigid about taking their stop loss when it is hit.
  2. Traders should be very flexible on profit expectations during each market cycle but very rigid about following their robust method during each cycle.
  3. Traders must be very flexible about allowing a winner to run but very rigid on cutting losses short.
  4. Traders must be flexible about their opinions and change them when proven wrong but they must be rigid about their risk management and never risk more than planned.
  5. Traders should be flexible about their watch list but rigid about their trading plan.
  6. Traders should be flexible about what will happen next in the market but rigid about their rules.
  7. Traders should be flexible about the direction of the trend when it changes but rigid about positions sizing.
  8. Traders should be flexible about profit targets but rigid about entering with a minimum risk/reward plan.
  9. Trades should be flexible about entries and exits as the market action develops but rigid about managing the risk of ruin at all times.
  10. Traders should be flexible about expectations on when they will have a huge winning streak that will change their financial lives but rigidly pursue success in the markets until it does happen.

S&P 500 Up Every Trading Day in November So Far

  
Analysis, Education, US Market
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After struggling at the end of October, the S&P 500 has finished higher on every single trading day so far in November.  This marks the 16th 6-day winning streak for the S&P 500 over the last ten years.  As shown below, the last four 6-day winning streaks have been met with declines on day seven.
WINNING STREAKS

10 Mental Errors

  
  Education
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The weakest link to any trading strategy is the trader that is suppose to be executing it. It is usually the mental and emotional errors of the trader that cause the 90% of unprofitable traders to lose money. Trading success is determined more by the mindset of the trader than their skills with math, economics, or macro knowledge.

  1. The ego takes over the trader and being right becomes the #1 priority. This causes the trader not to take losses becasue they don’t want to be proven wrong.
  2. Greed causes traders to trade too big because they want to make a huge amount of money in one trade.
  3. Fear causes a trader to exit to early with a very small profit because they are afraid it will disappear.
  4. Discouragement causes a trader to quit before they have given themselves or their systems enough time to win.
  5. Coat tailing is when a trader follows a guru’s trades instead of learning to trade correctly themselves.
  6. Style drift is when a trader changes their method instead of sticking to it and letting it play out when the right market environment emerges.
  7. Arrogance leads a trader to trade too big and take on too much risk, this usually happens after a big winning streak or outsized win. (more…)

11 Biases That Affect Traders

  
  Education
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Overconfidence
As the name suggested, it is the irrational faith in one’s skills, methodology or beliefs. For example, you see a certain chart pattern and make a maximum leveraged trade, even though you understand that any chart pattern cannot predict market with certainty. Trading excessively after a winning streak also shows overconfidence.
Cognitive Dissonance
It means finding excuses for something which makes you ‘uncomfortable’. For example, jumping from one indicator to another when you face losing trades; or continuing to trade in stock even your trading methodology does not gives you a positive expectancy. 
Availability Bias
It means being biased to information which is readily and easily available. For example, people begin to trade using RSI without understanding the internal relative strength; that is, RSI is most talked about on forums so start using them without rationally researching it. Being affected from attractive advertisement or intelligent sounding articles (including this one!) without due diligence also signifies availability bias.
Self-Attribution Bias
It means giving yourself unwarranted praise for outcomes which may just be an outcome of chance. For example, people make money in a bull market through buy and hold and start begin to believe on their trading acumen rather than the market regime which favors their trading style. (more…)

Uncertain Outcome, Consistent Result

  
  Education
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Every trader knows trading is a probability game. However, very few can internalize and live by the true meaning of what it means to be a probability game.

Mark Douglas, the author of “Trading in the Zone”, explains it well.     Someone who masters the probability game produces uncertain outcome but consistent result.   The best example to illustrate this concept is the casino business.     The casino holds on the average 4.5% probability advantage over the player. It does not know whether the next hand will be a winner or a loser against the player, but the casino is certain that they always win given enough bets.     Therefore casinos do not care if a player is going through a winning streak, as long as he is not cheating.

That’s exactly how traders need to think about his trades.    Market is random.    Anything can happen to the current trade.   A trader can increase his probability of winning either through fundamental or technical analysis but the best analysis can never produce a 100% certainty.  In reality, the highest win rate that the best analysis can produce is far from 100%.   However,  as long as the trader has a trading plan that can produce positive expected value,  he can expect consistent result over a reasonably large number of trades,  just like the casino. (more…)

THE 7 DEADLY SINS OF STOCK TRADING

  
  Education
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In their book, Tools and Tactics For the Master Day Trader, Oliver Velez and Greg Capra, outline the 7 deadly sins of stock trading.  Are you guilty of commiting any of the following?

1.  Failing to Cut Losses Short:  The most frequently committed error among traders.  “We are of the school of thought that believes that traders’ most precious commodity is their original capital, and that they are doomed to utter failure if they do not do everything in their power to prevent its erosion” (91).

 2.  Dollar Counting: Focusing on how much a trade is up or down at any given moment can rob traders of profitable opportunities.  “Once a trade is taken, traders must work to forget their profits…and focus on the proper technique” (94).

3.  Switching Time Frames:  This is the error of buying in one time frame and selling in another.  The trader may buy in a longer term time frame, say the daily, but see a reversal on a 60 minute chart and sell.  This is “nothing more than a rationalization to ignore stops” (96).

4.  Needing To Know More:  Everyday traders must face the fear of pulling the trigger.  One of the symptoms of this fear is the need to know more but “the fact of the matter is that the brass ring goes to those who can act intelligently without the need to know more” (98).

5.  Becoming Too Complacent:  It is easy to become complacent when there has been a string of winners. “When a winning streak has fattened your purse, you must do everything in your power to keep your hard-earned gains and maintain the same intelligent mind-set that helped to produce those gains” (100).

6.  Winning the Wrong Way:  Many novice traders make money the wrong way and will eventually pay for it.  Traders make money the wrong way by not adhering to a rule or a stop loss and end up making money anyway.  This sets up a “taste of false success, and the market will eventually ensure that they give back this unearned profit sooner or later” (103).  The next time a rule or a stop is ignored the losses will far outweigh the previous gains.

7. Rationalizing:  This is a form of denial when in a losing trade.  Honesty, real honesty, no matter how ugly the truth, will put you above most market players unable to summon such strength from within, preferring instead to be comfortable, blaming their losses on something or someone other than themselves” (106). 

No matter which one of the seven deadly sins we have committed, we should ask ourselves the question: have we learned from them, asked for forgiveness, and are we ready to turn over a new leaf?  The market is a great teacher if we will only listen and obey.

EGO

  
  Education
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There is no place for arrogance on the trading floor. The stock market has the uncanny ability to identify and humble arrogant traders. The best traders respect the market at all times. Traders are most susceptible to arrogance after an extended winning streak. It’s amazing how weeks of disciplined trading can be wiped out by one bad day. Arrogance is a virus in your trading, as it eats away at the edges of your discipline. Without proper discipline, the market will eat you for lunch.

10 Points -Why Traders lose Money

  
  Education
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  1. Not honoring your original stops. Big losses make winning systems losing ones.

  2. Quit trading it during draw downs. All systems have losing streaks, the key is to manage risk and stick to it until the system gets make to a winning streak.
  3. Lack of discipline, drifting from taking defined entries and exit signals to opinions is hazardous.
  4. Trading too big, no system can survive huge positions sizing that makes the first string of losses the last.
  5. Style drift is deadly, slowly changing your trading plan during active trades is not good. Research comes after hours and before changes are made. (more…)
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