Rule #1
Never, ever, under any circumstance, should one add to a losing position…not ever!
Averaging down into a losing trade is the only thing that will assuredly take you out of the investment business. This is what took LTCM out. This is what took Barings Brothers out, this is what took Sumitomo Copper out, and this is what takes most losing investors out.
Rule #2
Never, ever, under any circumstance, should one add to a losing position…not ever!
We trust our point is made. If “location, location, location” are the first three rules of investing in real estate, then the first two rules of trading equities, debt, commodities, currencies, and so on are these: never add to a losing position.
Rule #3
Learn to trade like a mercenary guerrilla.
The great Jesse Livermore once said that it is not our duty to trade upon the bullish side, nor the bearish side, but upon the winning side. This is brilliance of the first order. We must indeed learn to fight/invest on the winning side, and we must be willing to change sides immediately when one side has gained the upper hand.
Rule #4
Don’t hold on to losing positions
Capital is in two varieties, mental and real, and of the two, the mental capital is the most important.
Holding on to losing positions costs real capital as one’s account balance is depleted, but it can exhaust one’s mental capital even more seriously as one holds to the losing trade, becoming more and more fearful with each passing minute, day and week, avoiding potentially profitable trades while one nurtures the losing position.
Rule #5
Go where the strength is
The objective of what we are after is not to buy low and to sell high, but to buy high and to sell higher, or to sell short low and to buy lower.
We can never know what price is really “low,” nor what price is really “high.” We can, however, have a modest chance at knowing what the trend is and acting on that trend. We can buy higher and we can sell higher still if the trend is up. Conversely, we can sell short at low prices and we can cover at lower prices if the trend is still down. However, we’ve no idea how high high is, nor how low low is.
Rule #6
Sell markets that show the greatest weakness; buy markets that show the greatest strength.
Metaphorically, when bearish, we need to throw our rocks into the wettest paper sack, for it will break the most readily, while in bull markets, we need to ride the strongest wind, for it shall carry us farther than others. (more…)