Archives of “Viruses” tag

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Moody’s weighs in on coronavirus economic impacts – could continue over next 3 quarters

  
Analysis, Economy
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Moody’s now:

  • says despite some turbulence, APC airports can weather coronavirus challenges
  • financial impact for APAC airports larger than suggested by passenger volumes at risk
  • says suggests travel between Asian destinations could be significantly affected over at least next 2-3 quarters due to coronavirus

Moody’s focused on airport/travel impacts – tourist movements are significant indeed in Asia (and elsewhere of course), business-related travel also.  There are significant flow-on effects from a reduced inbound flow of tourists, offset to some extent by locals otherwise taking holidays domestically.

Fitch is on the lookout for coronavirus economic impacts – on trade, ports, output & more

  
  Analysis
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E’ryone seems to have chilled on the virus impacts on economies.

All it took was a bit of number juggling:
  • China has changed its definition of ‘confirmed cases’ in latest coronavirus guidelines
Fitch is not quite so mellow:
  • says global ports vulnerable to coronavirus-related volume declines
  • says decreased production in China because of extended work holiday & factory closures will affect import & export volumes in Q1 2020
  • some rated APAC ports will be affected if slowdown in trade is prolonged due to coronavirus
  • if more firms suspend Chinese operations or withdraw from production in China due to coronavirus shipping volume may take longer to recover
  • Middle East export volumes will be hurt by significant declines in Chinese demand for oil
  • reduced trade due to virus exacerbates effects of 2018-2019 trade barriers on US west coast port volumes in particular
  • rated Australian coal export terminals to see volume impact from prolonged slowdown in industrial activity in china due to coronavirus
  • US-China trade levels expected to pick up with phase 1 of trade deal may take longer to take hold due to virus-related production slowdown
E'ryone seems to have chilled on the virus impacts on economies.

China Pres. Xi: Believes China will win battle against virus

  
  Analysis
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China’s Xi trying to stay positive in the face of the coronavirus outbreak

China Pres. Xi is on the wires trying to stay positive in the face of the coronavirus outbreak. He says:
  • Believes China will win battle against virus
  • China will complete economic and social targets that have been set
  • China will be more prosperous after battle against virus is 1
  • prevention and control work on coronavirus is having positive results

Hubei reports 2,097 additional coronavirus cases, death toll tops 1000

  
  Analysis
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The latest coronavirus news

The latest coronavirus news
Hubei province announces 2,097 additional coronavirus cases and an additional 103 deaths. That pushed the death toll above 1000.
The pace of news cases is slower than 2,531 a day ago.
In important related news, the Chinese National Health Commission has changed their definition of “confirmed case” in their latest guidelines. Starting from Sunday, those who have tested positive but have no symptoms will no longer be regarded as confirmed. This is in contrast to WHO guidance.
Since then, some provinces have been cutting totals.

Is the coronavirus’ impact on financial markets overblown?

  
  Analysis
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A look at the key question in markets right now

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The Coronavirus continues to see an outbreak globally with the latest estimates putting the death total over 900 persons. With fear continuing to spread and millions disrupted, financial markets have certainly been impacted.

Typically, most problematic geo-political or economic events have always managed to yield some material effect on markets. This was seen earlier this year with the rising tensions between the US and Iran.

However, the Coronavirus is itself an entirely different animal, whose impact is far more globally reaching. This article will explore how the virus has correlated to financial markets and which instruments should be looked at.

How does the virus affect global markets?

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Death toll in China’s coronavirus outbreak has risen to at least 212

  
  Analysis
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And the number of cases of coronavirus confirmed across thje glove is now over 8,100 9,000

For Hubei province (Wuhan is the capital city of Hubei and the epicentre of the outbreak)
  • 42 deaths confirmed
  • 1,200 new cases confirmed over the past 24 hours
More figures will come as the morning progresses in China, but as a heads up it appears more than 70% of new cases are outside of Hubei province.

British Airways suspends bookings of direct flights to China until March

  
  Analysis
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In response to the coronavirus outbreak situation

The airline has halted bookings on its website for direct flights from London to Beijing and Shanghai until March, after warnings over travel to China.

They are still offering connecting flights though, with the layover being in Hong Kong (mostly) before passengers have to continue with a different airline.

Reuters tried to get in contact with BA on the matter, but a spokeswoman just said that they were “assessing the situation”.

If we do see more airlines and countries take more drastic measures, expect that to weigh further on the Chinese economy and in turn, the global economy to start the year.

Warning on the potential for a recession due to the coronavirus – a critical ‘cushion’

  
Analysis, Economy
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Stephen Roach warns on the potential for the coronavirus outbreak to shock the world in a recession

  • Historically, the rapid expansion of cross-border trade has been an important part of the global growth cushion that shields the world economy from all-too-frequent shocks. 
  • Now, however, reflecting the unusually sharp post-crisis slowdown in global trade growth, this cushion has shrunk dramatically, to just 13% over the 2010-19 period. With the world economy operating dangerously close to stall speed, the confluence of ever-present shocks and a sharply diminished trade cushion raises serious questions about financial markets’ increasingly optimistic view of global economic prospects.
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Who is Roach?
  • a senior fellow at Yale University’s Jackson Institute for Global Affairs
  • a senior lecturer at Yale School of Management
  • formerly chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia and chief economist at Morgan Stanley
Stephen Roach warns on the potential for the coronavirus outbreak to shock the world in a recession

OPEC said to be discussing extending output cuts until at least June

  
  Analysis
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OPEC is said to be alarmed by the coronavirus outbreak

OPEC

Reuters is reporting on the matter, citing three OPEC sources, in saying that the bloc aims to extend the current oil output cuts through to June at least.

Adding that members are also discussing on deepening the cuts if oil prices or demand should fall significantly on the coronavirus outbreak.
There is little doubt that the virus will weigh on oil demand in Q1 at the very least but if it does have a prolonged impact, OPEC may have to live with lower oil prices until the world adjusts to the situation in the long-term.
I mean, if they can’t even properly comply with current quotas – what more if they choose to deepen cuts further. It’d be all talk but no action.

What is your preferred source of safety from the Coronavirus?

  
  Analysis
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Via Bloomberg, question of the day ?

Via Bloomberg, question of the day ? 
This was a question on Bloomberg Market’s Live blog this week and I thought I would ask our Forexlive readership the same question. What are you looking at for safety in the current concerns over the coronavirus?
  • Treasuries: One of the first ‘go to places’.
  • Gold: Another quick go to place for value. Short term it makes sense for a quick spike, but longer term the improving US outlook means that gains should be capped
  • Bitcoin: Sometimes mirrors gold as a digital ‘gold’, but for some investors the jury is still out whether bitcoin is here to stay or a first flush of a changing digital age that may or may not be here. For me, when investing in a safe haven on the coronavirus fears, I would favour gold over bitcoin every time. Is that just an unfair bias and unnecessary conservatism, or sensible? Anyone take the other view?
  • Tech stocks: Seen as less vulnerable as industrials, finance or energy stocks. Perhaps long health stocks?
Other areas to look at?

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