Fitch is on the lookout for coronavirus economic impacts – on trade, ports, output & more

E’ryone seems to have chilled on the virus impacts on economies.

All it took was a bit of number juggling:
  • China has changed its definition of ‘confirmed cases’ in latest coronavirus guidelines
Fitch is not quite so mellow:
  • says global ports vulnerable to coronavirus-related volume declines
  • says decreased production in China because of extended work holiday & factory closures will affect import & export volumes in Q1 2020
  • some rated APAC ports will be affected if slowdown in trade is prolonged due to coronavirus
  • if more firms suspend Chinese operations or withdraw from production in China due to coronavirus shipping volume may take longer to recover
  • Middle East export volumes will be hurt by significant declines in Chinese demand for oil
  • reduced trade due to virus exacerbates effects of 2018-2019 trade barriers on US west coast port volumes in particular
  • rated Australian coal export terminals to see volume impact from prolonged slowdown in industrial activity in china due to coronavirus
  • US-China trade levels expected to pick up with phase 1 of trade deal may take longer to take hold due to virus-related production slowdown
E'ryone seems to have chilled on the virus impacts on economies.