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Moderna, S&P: Vaccine hopes

  
  Analysis
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A look at vaccine developments and its impact on the stock market

Moderna

FBSSource: Bloomberg

Yes, we’ve heard it already – both statements. Of course, from a humane point of view, it’s good to hear there is progress with the vaccine development. But it increasingly looks like by the time it is ready, most people indeed will already have immunity to the virus. In the meantime, Moderna is enjoying spikes of investor attention.

FBS 2
The latest update is that it got one step closer to the vaccine pushed its stock from the rage of $60 to $75. Needless to say, if the reports informed us tomorrow that another testing stage is cleared, we would see this stock already somewhere at its recently made all-time high above $85. Trajectory zone 2 would be the channel of movement in this case.

In fact, Moderna’s stock may well get to those highs anyways: fundamentally, the interest for anti-virus business will keep its momentum months or even years ahead, even if tomorrow is no virus at all. So Moderna will see its rise, just it will be a slow case scenario – the one that corresponds to trajectory zone 1.

S&P 500

For the stock market, the vaccine hope seems to be the only “joy” that keeps the optimism on the stage. With the S&P, currently, we are almost exactly at the previous high of 3 320, and in an obvious consolidation. Meaning, the market is not really sure what to look at more: still spreading infections in the US of the vaccine hopes. Today, it seems the latter is taking the upper hand. What the next step is going to be?

An optimistic scenario suggests we will see Trajectory 1 giving the green light to bulls and repeating the pattern of the previous upward wave the S&P followed in May. How probable is that? Quite probable, given that the reports about vaccine developments keep coming more often.

A pessimistic scenario as per Trajectory 3 suggests that we are actually at the tip of another “inside wave” which will bounce down from the resistance of 3 230. How probable is that one? Also very probable: clearing testing processes is good, but we don’t have the vaccine yet. It may take months before we finally see it.

A moderate scenario presumes that the market will overlook the absence of the vaccine and take on a more positive mood. That will be Trajectory 2.

The thing is that, indeed, it may be not until the very end of 2020 when the vaccine eventually gets done. Everyone knows that. If the S&P was only waiting for the vaccine to finally get developed, then it would be going sideways between 2 980 and 3 230 for months from now. Is that likely? No. Regardless of the vaccine process, the more we move into the future, the more the market becomes insensitive to the reality of infections and, therefore, independent from the vaccine hopes. Why? Because with the vaccine or without it, life goes on. And even the virus is now on the rise in the US – again – it will slow down pretty soon. So the question is not “if” but “when”. And the market is bored waiting.

FBS 3

This post is written and submitted by FBS Markets for informational purposes only. In no way shall it be interpreted or construed to create any warranties of any kind, including an offer to buy or sell any currencies or other instruments. 

The views and ideas shared in this article are deemed reliable and based on the most up-to-date and trustworthy sources. However, the company does not take any responsibility for accuracy and completeness of the information, and the views expressed in the article may be subject to change without prior notice.

How hesitant would you be to take a coronavirus vaccine?

  
  Analysis
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According to a poll by Reuters/Ipsos, a quarter of Americans have little or no interest in taking a coronavirus vaccine

Virus
The survey was conducted on 13 May to 19 May, and gathered 4,428 respondents with 14% saying that they were ‘not at all interested’ in taking a vaccine and a further 10% saying that they were ‘not very interested’.
That said, an important thing to point out is that the hesitance can be tied back to the record-breaking pace that pharmaceutical companies are working at to churn out a vaccine.
Among those who expressed little or no interest in taking a vaccine, nearly half said that they were worried about the speed in which one is being developed – with more than 40% believing that the vaccine may be riskier than the disease itself.

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Moderna reports ‘positive data’ on early-stage coronavirus vaccine trial

  
  Analysis
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Just about everyone is making vaccine progress these days

It is tough to try and make sense of the developments of a coronavirus vaccine when we are trading on whatever the companies are telling us, rather than the science of it. But hey, that’s what happens when you don’t have that medical/biotech background.
In a statement today, Moderna is saying that it has had ‘positive data’ from its early-stage human trial for a coronavirus vaccine. Shares are jumping by more than 10% in pre-market as the company reports on their progress and this is also lifting general sentiment.
According to reports, the vaccine helped to produce coronavirus antibodies in all 45 participants of the trial. From a report by CNBC:

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6 companies working on vaccines against COVID-19

  
Analysis, Life
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A closer look at the companies developing vaccines to combat COVID-19

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According to many experts in the healthcare sphere, the spreading of COVID-19 over the world has not reached its peak, and we do not have a vaccine against this disease yet.

Currently, the first place in terms of the number of diseased among countries is taken by the USA. China, though it was the source of the infection, has managed to stop its spreading, so now it occupies the third place in terms of the number of the sick.

Note that stopping the spreading of the virus is not the same as learning to cure people of it. There is no vaccine yet, and now it is very important to mark time until we get the vaccine. Hence, quarantine is the only way of fighting the virus.

Pharmaceutical companies have long started inventing a vaccine against the enemy; however, before it gets to the market, it has to pass all the stages of trials. As long as the WHO has announced a pandemics, the number of the stages is decreased.

For example, in normal conditions, pre-clinical testing (when the drug is tested on animals) takes 1 to 2 years, but in the present circumstances, this stage takes 1-2 months. The permission to sell the drug usually takes 4 years to receive, but this time the company may only need 4 months to get it.

In this article, we will discuss what companies are closer to the final stage of testing than others. The stocks of such companies will attract the most vivid attention of investors because the demand for the vaccine will exceed its production power, which means the company will make a maximum profit selling it.

Testing drugs (more…)

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