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US coronavirus cases rise 1.6% vs 1.2% seven-day average

Highest rate of change since June 1

US virus cases rose 34,284 in the past day. It’s the second day in a row above 30,000 after ranging from 19-28K in the prior week.
  • California 3893, or a 2.4% rise
  • Arizona 3109 or a 6.7% rise
  • Florida cases rose 4.5% compared to the seven-day average of 3.4%
  • Texas hospitalizations have hit a record for nine straight days and 4430 new cases
Highest rate of change since June 1
TexasAn equally hot spot right now is Brazil where cases jumped 34,666 in the past day and 1022 people died.
In Beijing there were another 22 confirmed cases on Saturday.
Meanwhile six members of Trump’s staff tested positive for the virus ahead of his rally in Tulsa. Crowds were smaller than anticipated. This was purportedly as he took the stage:
Trump rally empty

Moderna reports ‘positive data’ on early-stage coronavirus vaccine trial

Just about everyone is making vaccine progress these days

It is tough to try and make sense of the developments of a coronavirus vaccine when we are trading on whatever the companies are telling us, rather than the science of it. But hey, that’s what happens when you don’t have that medical/biotech background.
In a statement today, Moderna is saying that it has had ‘positive data’ from its early-stage human trial for a coronavirus vaccine. Shares are jumping by more than 10% in pre-market as the company reports on their progress and this is also lifting general sentiment.
According to reports, the vaccine helped to produce coronavirus antibodies in all 45 participants of the trial. From a report by CNBC:

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US hydroxychloroquine study shows no benefit to the drug for COVID-19

Study shows more deaths

The anti-malaria drug hydroxychloroquine wasn’t effective in keeping people with coronavirus from needed mechanical ventilation, according to a study of 368 patients in US veterans hospitals.
This wasn’t a blind test but here are the numbers, via AP:

Researchers analyzed medical records of 368 male veterans hospitalized with confirmed coronavirus infection at Veterans Health Administration medical centers who died or were discharged by April 11.

About 28% who were given hydroxychloroquine plus usual care died, versus 11% of those getting routine care alone. About 22% of those getting the drug plus azithromycin died too, but the difference between that group and usual care was not considered large enough to rule out other factors that could have affected survival.

The upshot here could be that only cases that were particularly bad were given the drug, so the sample is biased. That said, it didn’t work.

Full-scale studies are coming in the days ahead.

China said to urge its citizens to delay foreign travel over virus fears

AFP reports

From the headline, it doesn’t appear to be a hard rule but more of a travel advisory – along the lines of asking travelers to reconsider their plans. These travel warnings have always been a bit of a blur line and in my view, I don’t ever see them having much impact.

But if we do see a significant drop in Chinese travelers around the world, expect that to weigh on global economic conditions even more to start the year – especially in economies that rely heavily on tourism and services.