Archives of “united states dollar” tag

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US stocks end the day near session lows.

  
Analysis, US Market
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A soft ending to the stock day

The US stocks are ending the day just off the lows for the day. The NASDAQ index by the way with a -1.27% decline.
The final numbers are showing:
  • S&P index -20.97 points or -0.61% at 3218.44.
  • NASDAQ index fell -134.17 points or -1.27% at 10402.09
  • Dow industrial average fell by -205.49 points or -0.77% at 26379.28
After the close Starbucks is reporting a less than expected loss and a sales beat. They also expect the 4th quarter to show a significant rebound. Earnings-per-share came in at $-0.46 vs. $-0.59 expectations. The revenues also be at $4.2 billion vs. $4.06 billion estimate.
Amgen earnings and revenues came in better-than-expected. However after an early rise, the price is currently trading lower in after hour trading.  Earnings-per-share came in at $4.25 I was higher than the $3 and 84 expected. Revenues grew by $6.21 billion vs. expectations of $6.18 billion.
These earnings-per-share came in a little bit better at $1.07 vs. $1.03 expectations. Revenues were little light however at $4.8 billion vs. $4.82 billion expected
Ebay earnings came and at $1.08 vs. $1.06 expectations. They also raised their year end outlook

Not a good look as USD/JPY nears 100 pip loss

  
Analysis, Forex
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USD/JPY wilts even as risk trades rise

The old correlation between the S&P 500 and USD/JPY is dead. Stocks have climbed in the past 20 minutes and the pair is at the lows of the day.
More importantly, the technical pictures is melting as the pair falls below the May low once again. It would take a miracle turnaround to finish back above 106.00 today. With the break lower, there isn’t much to halt a decline to the 2020 lows.
USD/JPY wilts even as risk trades rise

The euro is off and running. Levels to watch

  
Analysis, Forex
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EUR/USD up 92 pips today

The euro cracked 1.17 in Asia and has continued to run higher, hitting 1.1764 as New York arrived before pulling back to 1.1747 at the moment. Today’s durable goods orders report hasn’t been a factor.
The impetus for the seven-day run in the euro was a successful European recovery fund negotiation. At the same time, the US is struggling with COVID-19 and European economies are closer to normalcy with virus counts low (although some hotspots are appearing).
Overbought indicators are obviously flashing warning signs for the euro but there is still a lot to like. 1.17 isn’t particularly high and assets in Europe are still relatively cheap. Carry is dead almost everywhere so that’s not going to be a big drag.
I’ll keep it simple on the technicals and highlight the June and Sept 2018 highs at 1.1852 and 1.1815 as resistance. I like the euro against the US dollar but the risk-reward at the moment is mediocre.
EUR/USD up 92 pips today

TSLA (Tesla) earnings released, Q2 EOPS

  
  Analysis
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Q2 EPS 50c (vs. loss/share $2.310 y/y)

  • Free cash flow $418m, estimate loss $617.9m
  • revenue $6.04bn, estimate $5.40bn
Says delivering half million vehicles in 2020 remains the target
  • Says its Shanghai factory is progressing as planned
  • remains difficult to predict whether there will be further operational interruptions or how global consumer sentiment will evolve in H2 2020
It appears there is some financial engineering involved in generating that positive EPS number, generated a record amount from sales of regulatory credits of 428m USD

US MARKET : S&P on a 4 day winning streak. Dow on a 3 day streak

  
Analysis, US Market
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NASDAQ pushes higher and erases declines.

The major indices are closing higher on the day with the Dow industrial average leading the way today with a 0.62% gain. IT is the 3rd day in a row that the Dow has moved higher.
The S&P is on a 4 day winning streak. It closed up 0.58%.
The final numbers for the day are showing:
  • S&P index up 18.76 points or 0.58% at 3276.06
  • NASDAQ index up 25.765 points or 0.24% at 10706.12
  • Dpw up 165.33 points or 0.62% at 27005.73
Microsoft has reported better top line and bottom line numbers after the close. The revenues came in at $38.0 billion vs. estimate of $36.54 billion
The earnings-per-share came in at $1.46 vs. estimate of $1.37.
Microsoft shares are trading down 2.19% in early after close trading at $206.65. Shares closed at $211.75.

USD facing more questions about its status as the primary reserve currency

  
Analysis, Forex
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Here is an item on the US dollar from Bloomberg that may be of interest.

It cites analysts from Credit Agricole and Mizuho
  • USD accounts for more than 60% of global reserves
  • the most widely used currency for international transactions
  • But it risks ceding ground to the euro after European Union leaders agreed on a 750 billion euro stimulus package that enhances the appeal of the shared currency and euro-denominated assets
CA say that the recovery fund will facilitate diversification out of the US dollar
offering liquid, high-rating, euro-denominated debt
Here is an item on the US dollar from Bloomberg that may be of interest.
I’d not be getting too gung-ho on this, and note that the analysts say ‘risks ceding ground’, they are not writing off the dollar.

S&P index leads the way. NASDAQ lags but closes higher for the 2nd straight day

  
Analysis, US Market
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S&P index closes just below breakeven level for 2020

The US stocks are ending the session with gains across the board. The gains are led by the S&P index which rose by 0.91%. The NASDAQ index lagged, but still gained 0.59%.

For the S&P index, it toyed with closing above the breakeven level for the year for the 1st time since February 25. However, that quest failed. The index is ending the day 0.13% from that breakeven level (2019 closes at 3230.78 while the close today is at 3226.56).

This week there has been a rotation out of the high flying tech stocks vs. the broader/industrial stocks. For the last 5 trading days the Dow industrial average is up 3.08% and the S&P index is up 1.79%, while the tech heavy NASDAQ index is up only 0.55%.
Nevertheless both the NASDAQ and the S&P index are up for 2 consecutive days. The Dow is riding a 4 day win streak.
The final numbers are showing:
  • S&P index +29.03 points or 0.91% at 3226.55
  • NASDAQ index up 61.915 points or 0.59% at 10550.49
  • Dow up 227.51 points or 0.85% at 26870.10.
Will tomorrow be the day for the S&P index to close the black? Maybe, but going forward headline news from more earnings releases, coronavirus cases, vaccines and therapeutics will continue to exert their influences. Each of which could upset the apple cart in a bullish or bearish direction.

Nikkei 225 closes higher by 1.59% at 22,945.50

  
Analysis, Global Indices
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Japanese stocks boosted by more upbeat Wall Street sentiment

Nikkei 15-07

The late surge by US stocks overnight is helping to give Asian equities a decent lift in trading today, though Chinese and Hong Kong stocks are weighed down by US-China tensions after Trump removed Hong Kong’s special status earlier in the day.

The Hang Seng is seen at flat levels now after trading in the red earlier while the Shanghai Composite has pared some losses to be down by 0.2% currently.
Elsewhere, US futures are still keeping more upbeat with S&P 500 futures up by ~0.8%.
That is keeping the likes of the aussie and kiwi more underpinned ahead of European morning trade, with AUD/USD flirting with the 0.7000 handle while NZD/USD is trying to crack back above its key hourly moving averages at 0.6552-69.

China June trade data, exports +4.3% y/y, imports +6.2% y/y (yuan terms)

  
Analysis, Economy
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china trade, yuan terms:

trade balance: expected CNY 425bn, prior was CNY 442.75bn

  • Exports +4.3% y/y: expected +3.5%, prior was +1.4%
  • Imports +6.2% y/y: expected -4.7%, prior was -12.7%

Exports have now risen for 3 consecutive months

The data is only dribbling out, do not have the trade balnce announced from China yet, nor the figures in USD terms. Nevertheless, bounce of both imports and exports is encouraging for the Chinese economy.

China has said trade with the US is down 6.6% y/y in H1.

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