Care a little more.
Show up.
Embrace possibility.
Tell the truth.
Dive deeper.
Seek the truth behind the story.
Ask the difficult question.
Lend a hand.
Dance with fear.
Play the long game.
Say ‘no’ to hate. (more…)
Archives of “truth” tag
rss4 Trading Quotes From Mark Douglas
There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge. In other words, based on the past performance of your edge, you may know that out of the next 20 trades, 12 will be winners and 8 will be losers. What you don’t know is the sequence of wins and losses or how much money the market is going to make available on the winning trades. This truth makes trading a probability or numbers game. When you really believe that trading is simply a probability game, concepts like ‘right’ and ‘wrong’ or ‘win’ and ‘lose’ no longer have the same significance. As a result, your expectations will be in harmony with the possibilities.
If you really believe in an uncertain outcome, then you also have to expect that virtually anything can happen. Otherwise, the moment you let your mind hold onto the notion that you know, you stop taking all of the unknown variables into consideration. Your mind won’t let you have it both ways. If you believe you know something, the moment is no longer unique.
To whatever degree you haven’t accepted the risk, is the same degree to which you will avoid the risk. Trying to avoid something that is unavoidable will have disastrous effects on your ability to trade successfully.
The less I cared about whether or not I was wrong, the clearer things became, making it much easier to move in and out of positions, cutting my losses short to make myself mentally available to take the next opportunity.
Trading Quotes
| The tape tells the truth, but often there is a lie buried in the human interpretation Jesse Livermore |
| Charts not only tell what was, they tell what is; and a trend from was to is (projected linearly into the will be) contains better percentages than clumsy guessing R. A. Levy |
| The biggest risk in trading is missing major opportunities, most of enormous gains on my accounts came from 5% of trades. Richard Dennis |
| Your human nature prepares you to give up your independence under stress. when you put on a trade, you feel the desire to imitate others and overlook objective trading signals. This is why you need to develop and follow trading systems and money management rules. They represent your rational individual decisions, made before you enter a trade and become a crowd member. A. Elder |
Great Quotes of Mark Douglas
“I know it may sound strange to many readers, but there is an inverse relationship between analysis and trading results. More analysis or being able to make distinctions in the market’s behavior will not produce better trading results. There are many traders who find themselves caught in this exasperating loop, thinking that more or better analysis is going to give them the confidence they need to do what needs to be done to achieve success. It’s what I call a trading paradox that most traders find difficult, if not impossible to reconcile, until they realize you can’t use analysis to overcome fear of being wrong or losing money. It just doesn’t work!”
-Mark Douglas
“There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that defines an edge. In other words, based on the past performance of your edge, you may know that out of the next 20 trades, 12 will be winners and 8 will be losers. What you don’t know is the sequence of wins and losses or how much money the market is going to make available on the winning trades. This truth makes trading a probability or numbers game. When you really believe that trading is simply a probability game, concepts like “right” and “wrong” or “win” and “lose” no longer have the same significance. As a result, your expectations will be in harmony with the possibilities.”
-Mark Douglas (more…)
Real Times News Will Not Increase Your Bankroll
Another explanation as to why real time news is useless:
Mike Bloomberg became the richest man in New York by selling traders just fifteen seconds head start on the data they needed. Fifteen seconds costs thousands of dollars a month per trader. But in most cases, what we get online is not actually in real-time and it’s not news, either.
Getting ever closer to the first moment is expensive in other ways. It might cost you in boredom, because watching an entire event just to see the good parts takes time, particularly if there’s no guarantee that there will even be good parts.
It might cost you in filtering, because the less you’re willing to wait, the more likely it is that you’ll see news that’s incorrect, out of context or not nearly as valuable as it appears.
When journalists, analysts and pundits are all racing to bring you the ‘news’ first, you get less actual news and more reflexive noise. Go watch an hour of cable news from a year ago… what were they yelling about that we actually care about today? (more…)
H + W + P = E
Understanding your own trading psychology is critical to being a successful portfolio manager.
Are you focused on trying to make money? Or are you more focused on trying not to lose money?
The truth is that making money is the easy part. It is keeping it that is so hard.
Statistically, you are going to make money half the time anyway as I have found that discretionary traders make money on approximately 45-55% of their trades. That is not my opinion – that is what the data say.
The difference between being profitable and not profitable or modest and substantial returns is not about the frequency of being “right.” It is about how much do you MAKE when you are right and how much do you LOSE when you are wrong.
Don’t trade to be right. Trade to make money. In order to make money, you have to lose less.
As a trading psychology coach, the formula I use with my clients is as follows:
H + W + P = E
Hoping + Wishing + Praying = EXIT THE TRADE!
Life Wisdom
There is a Zen story about a poor man walking through the woods reflecting upon his many troubles.
He stopped to rest against a tree, a magical tree that would instantly grant the wishes of anyone who came in contact with it. He realized he was thirsty and wished for a drink. Instantly a cup of cool water was in his hand. Shocked, he looked at the water, he decided it was safe and drank it.
He then realized he was hungry and wished he had something to eat. A meal appeared before him. “My wishes are being granted,” he thought in disbelief.
“Well, then I wish for a beautiful home of my own,” he said out loud. The home appeared in the meadow before him. A huge smile crossed his face as he wished for servants to take care of the house. When they appeared he realized he had somehow been blessed with an incredible power and he wished for a beautiful, loving, intelligent woman to share his good fortune. “Wait a minute, this is ridiculous,” said the man to the woman. “I’m not this lucky. This can’t happen to me.” As he spoke…everything disappeared. He shook his head and said, “I knew it,” then walked away thinking about his many troubles.
There is a great truth hidden behind this simple Zen story. Our mind is like this magical tree. “Whatever the mind conceives and believes, it achieves.”
Ray Dalio Principles
- I remained wary about being overconfident, and I figured out how to effectively deal with my not knowing. I dealt with my not knowing by either continuing to gather information until I reached the point that I could be confident or by eliminating my exposure to the risks of not knowing.
- While most others seem to believe that learning what we are taught is the path to success, I believe that figuring out for yourself what you want and how to get it is a better path.
- How much do you let what you wish to be true stand in the way of seeing what is really true?
- How much do you worry about looking good relative to actually being good?
- The most important qualities for successfully diagnosing problems are logic, the ability to see multiple possibilities, and the willingness to touch people’s nerves to overcome the ego barriers that stand in the way of truth.
- Know what you want and stick to it if you believe it’s right, even if others want to take you in another direction.
- In a nutshell, this is the whole approach that I believe will work best for you—the best summary of what I want the people who are working with me to do in order to accomplish great things. I want you to work for yourself, to come up with independent opinions, to stress-test them, to be wary about being overconfident, and to reflect on the consequences of your decisions and constantly improve.
BETTER TRADING
“Any thought put into your mind and nourished regularly, will produce results in your life.” John Kehoe
An affirmation is a statement made in the present about the future as if it had already occurred in the past. Let me say it more simply. An affirmation is a simple statement about what you want to become true in your life. You state it in the present tense as if it were already true. You repeat your hopes and dreams. You declare the opposite of your fears. For example, the fear that you could lose all your money becomes: “I grow my capital through consistently applying my winning methods.”
Be careful to word the affirmation in the present tense. Statements made in the future stay in the future. “Next month I’ll turn my trading around.” stays out there in the future. Now is when you need to turn the trading around.
Affirmations can be repeated to yourself silently or aloud. You can incant them with feeling or whisper them to yourself. You can record them and play them, or write them and read them. A good time to assert them is just as you’re falling asleep or waking up, or any other time of the day. You can say them while you drive or wait in a bank line or as you watch the market or manage a trade.
And here is a little miracle. You don’t have to believe the truth of the affirmation in order for it to have an effect. Of course, it’s better if you imagine it to be true or becoming true.
Sometimes it’s more believable if it’s a process statement. “I am slender” can change to “I am becoming slender.” “I am consistently profitable” changes to “I am becoming more consistently profitable.” There are times when the process is more credible than the reality.
You can also turn the statement into a question. “In what ways am I becoming a better trader?” “How am I becoming a more professional trader each year?” The mind accepts the truth of the question and searches for evidence. (more…)
Nuggets
Price — The Truth, The Light, The Way
- Work to understand price
- Price does not move in a straight line
- Big moves take time
- Volatility is your friend and helps to compress time
- Although volatility is your pal, it can cut both ways
- If a stock moves 30% a day, then you can’t trade with a 5% stop
- Don’t expect a volatile stock to stop behaving as it has been and only move in your favor just because you’re now in it. Unless you’re Bill Clinton, what is, IS.
Random Thoughts:
- Observe but be slow to shift gears — we are trend followers, not predictors
- It’s the market’s “job” to shake you out
- The market will do what it has to do to create the most pain (for the most people)
- The market will often do the obvious in the most un-obvious manner
- Err on the side of the longer-term trend
- DO wait for entries
- DO use protective stops
- DO trail and scale as offered