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Overconfidence & Greed

  
  Education
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What most traders often don’t realize until it is too late is how quickly one can lose a lot of money in a single trade often with disastrous consequences.  More often than not this painful experience comes from poor risk management following a period of successful trading. It is natural of course. We are pattern seeking mammals and when something starts working for us we get confident in our abilities and quickly forget we know very little what the market or a given stock may do at any given moment. In short: We easily become overconfident.

It is after a period of successful trading that traders tend to loosen up on good intentioned rules of discipline. They start thinking in term of dollar signs as opposed to the trade discipline. In short they think they can fly. “Look how much money I would have made if I had traded x % of my portfolio”. Stop yourself right there. While it is tempting to play mind games like this no good will come of it. Why? Because you just stepped overtly into the realm of one of the greatest sins of trading:

Once you get greedy you will start abandoning necessary discipline. Nobody, I repeat nobody, no matter how smart they think they are has a fail proof system or process or secret trading technique that guarantees 100% success. I surely don’t. Neither does Goldman Sachs or anybody else. While there may be some HFT firms out there that are trying to algo their way to a perfect system I have news for you: You are not an HFT or an algo. You are an individual trader and as good as you may be: You will have losing trades, things will go against you and oddly enough this will happen when you are at your most vulnerable: When you are overconfident, greedy and overexposed. Something curious tends to happen though when the losing trade occurs:

Apply Will Power in Trading

  
  Education
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Much of successful trading has to do with having the discipline, the willpower, to follow the trading plan. And much of a good trading plan goes counter to a human’s natural reactions to the market. Hence the greater your willpower, i.e. the better you are able to have self-control or self-regulation, the better your trading.

Below are some key points from the article and Roy Baumeister’s YouTube videos, and my thoughts on how they apply to trading.

The Nature of Willpower

  • Willpower is a limited resource that gets depleted when you use it.
    • I typically find that my trading at the early part of the session is good. I would follow my trading plan well and profits usually follows. However towards the later part of the morning, I start to make mistakes and go counter to my trading plan, that’s when my results suffer.
    • Be aware of when you have run out of juice. I find that once I start make a few consecutive trades that violate my trading plan, I recognize that my willpower has been depleted, I am not making good decisions, so I go take a break, or stop trading for the day entirely.
    • Some traders recommend not trading for more than 3 hours a day. Yes you may miss a run away market after you stop trading, but recall your experiences when the market trended very well the entire day but yet you lost money. To extract money from the marketsrequires willpower to make the right trading decisions. When you are not able to follow your trading plan, the probabilities favor you giving money to the markets instead, regardless of the market situation.
  • When your willpower is depleted, you feel your emotions more intensely (more…)

Overconfidence & Greed

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

What most traders often don’t realize until it is too late is how quickly one can lose a lot of money in a single trade often with disastrous consequences.  More often than not this painful experience comes from poor risk management following a period of successful trading. It is natural of course. We are pattern seeking mammals and when something starts working for us we get confident in our abilities and quickly forget we know very little what the market or a given stock may do at any given moment. In short: We easily become overconfident.

It is after a period of successful trading that traders tend to loosen up on good intentioned rules of discipline. They start thinking in term of dollar signs as opposed to the trade discipline. In short they think they can fly. “Look how much money I would have made if I had traded x % of my portfolio”. Stop yourself right there. While it is tempting to play mind games like this no good will come of it. Why? Because you just stepped overtly into the realm of one of the greatest sins of trading:

Once you get greedy you will start abandoning necessary discipline. Nobody, I repeat nobody, no matter how smart they think they are has a fail proof system or process or secret trading technique that guarantees 100% success. I surely don’t. Neither does Goldman Sachs or anybody else. While there may be some HFT firms out there that are trying to algo their way to a perfect system I have news for you: You are not an HFT or an algo. You are an individual trader and as good as you may be: You will have losing trades, things will go against you and oddly enough this will happen when you are at your most vulnerable: When you are overconfident, greedy and overexposed. Something curious tends to happen though when the losing trade occurs:

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