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Typhoon Hagibis makes landfall in Japan, triggering floods

  
  Analysis
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A powerful typhoon made landfall on the Izu Peninsula near Tokyo on Saturday evening, disrupting transportation in the capital region and leaving two people dead. Millions of people in the Tokyo metropolitan area have been advised to evacuate as the storm approaches. Torrential rains caused rivers to flood, and authorities are taking emergency steps to discharge water from several dams to prevent them bursting, at the risk of further flooding.

Typhoon Hagibis is expected to be one of the strongest typhoons Japan has experienced in decades.

In Chiba Prefecture near Tokyo, one man in his fifties died in an overturned car in the early morning. Police are investigating whether it was caused by strong winds due to the typhoon. In the city, several houses have been affected by strong winds and parts of their roof were blown off. Five people, including three minors, have been injured.

In Gunma Prefecture, also near Tokyo, a man who went missing in a landslide was found dead. (more…)

Bank of Japan’s Kuroda on the wires

  
Analysis, Politics
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Via Reuters

Kuroda
  • BOJ will ease without hesitation if chance that economy may lose momentum for achieving price goal heightens
  • Economy sustaining momentum for hitting BoJ’s price goal
  • BoJ must pay more attention than before to heightening risks, particular focus in on the output gap
  • If Oil prices continue to fall and clearly push down Japan’s inflation, that could impact inflation expectations
  • No preconception on what policy decision will be made in October
  • Investors risk aversion easing somewhat due to progress in US-China trade negotiations
  • BoJ can combine, enhance tools which are rate cuts increase in asset buying and acceleration of base money
  • Excessive fall in super-long yields could hurt consumer sentiment by lowering returns of pension, insurance funds
  • Our policy is stimulating economy, but increased scrutiny is needed on cost of prolonged ultra low rate environment
  • Overseas economic slowdown yet to affect Japan’s domestic demand
No hints on whether more QE is coming for October, which is what would have weakened JPY further on the current change in sentiment with China waiving some soybean tariffs.
Interesting line about scrutiny on ultra low rate environment. We are starting to see a move away from monetary policy towards fiscal policy. I think it is reasonable expect this to be the next driver in the FX markets now if conditions remain in an ultra low interest environment.

Nikkei 225 closes higher by 0.16% at 22,079.09

  
Analysis, Global Indices
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Tokyo’s main index barely hangs on to gains in mixed trading day

Nikkei 20-09

It has been a sluggish session overall for Asian equities in general as the risk mood stays more subdued after seeing US stocks give back gains in overnight trading. China did cut its one-year LPR by 5 bps but it hardly is breathing life into equities on the session.

The Hang Seng index is flat while the Shanghai Composite is up by just 0.2% as investors appear to be more cautious still to wrap up the week. US futures are pretty much flat so that tells us that equities are still sidelined to begin European trading.
USD/JPY sits lower at 107.87 though as the yen keeps pace after gains from yesterday amid weaker Treasury yields to start the morning.

UAE backs Dubai's banks

  
Analysis, Economy, Education
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dubai-Nov. 30 (Bloomberg) — The yen weakened against higher- yielding currencies after the United Arab Emirates’ central bank said it “stands behind” the country’s banks, easing concern about a possible default by state-owned Dubai World.

The euro advanced for the first time in five days against the yen after the Abu Dhabi-based central bank of the U.A.E. said lenders will be able to borrow using a special facility tied to their current accounts. The Australian and New Zealand dollars rallied as demand rose for riskier assets after concern eased over credit losses in the Middle East.

“The decision by U.A.E. helped calm down credit woes,” said Akane Vallery Uchida, foreign-currency strategist in Tokyo at Royal Bank of Scotland Plc. “The yen, which was bought over jitters in Dubai, is being sold.”

Stock Market Learning

  
  Education
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1. Read the works of Soros, Jesse Livermore, William O’Neill, Warren Buffett and Nick Darvis.
2. Choose one and copy exactly what they do.
3. See each stage they go through to reach their conclusions and the actions they take and the inferrences they derive from the outcomes.
4. Pick stocks and plan out the course of action and all the permutations of what will happen in all price scenarios and put them into practice.
5. Memorise the details of the great coups and all the rules the masters have made in trading.
6. Keep all your trading a secret and don’t let others’ views interfere with your own. Keep your mind totally on the facts at hand and the details of what you see.
7. Before going to sleep look at the coups of other traders and of your own. Talk with the masters you are studying and meet them in your mind for interviews.
8. When the markets are not open or the market isn’t acting right for you then study past trades and memorise the actions you took and piece together the trade again looking for the lesson.
9. Be a better trader than your teachers and ask yourself how you can do better.
10. When you have practiced and ‘perfected’ position entry, move to exits, patterns, money management, probability theory, etc..
11. Look at situations and look at them as you would a trade. What would you do? Are there any interesting things to learn here that can be used in the markets?
12. See what’s happening rather than guess.
13. Play games like the one played in Liar’s Poker, where you invent scenarios and ask each other what you would do in that situation. E.g. nuclear explosion in Tokyo…
14. Be aware of views you are taking on a trade. Look at it always as if it’s the first time you have seen it and review an open trade every day as if you have just placed it.

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