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30 Trading Rules

 

1. Buying a weak stock is like betting on a slow horse. It is retarded.

2. Stocks are only cheap if they are going higher after you buy them.

3. Never trust a person more than the market. People lie, the market does not.

4. Controlling losers is a must; let your winners run out of control.

5. Simplicity in trading demonstrates wisdom. Complexity is the sign of inexperience.

6. Have loyalty to your family, your dog, your team. Have no loyalty to your stocks.

7. Emotional traders want to give the disciplined their money.

8. Trends have counter trends to shake the weak hands out of the market.

9. The market is usually efficient and can not be beat. Exploit inefficiencies.

10. To beat the market, you must have an edge.

11. Being wrong is a necessary part of trading profitably. Admit when you are wrong.

12. If you do what everyone is doing you will be average, so goes the definition.

13. Information is only valuable if no one knows about it.

14. Lower your risk till you sleep like a baby.

15. There is always a reason why stocks go up or down, we usually only learn the reason when it is too late.

16. Trades that make a lot of intellectual sense are likely to be losers.

17. You do not have to be right more than you are wrong to make money in the market.

18. Don’t worry about the trades that you miss, there will always be another.

19. Fear is more powerful than greed and so down trends are sharper than up trends.

20. Analyze the people, not the stock.

21. Trading is a dictators game; you can not trade by committee.

22. The best traders are the ones who do not care about the money.

23. Do not think you are smarter than the market, you are not.

24. For most traders, profits are short term loans from the market.

25. The stock market can not be predicted, we can only play the probabilities.

26. The farther price is from a linear trend, the more likely it is to correct.

27. Learn from your losses, you paid for them.

28. The market is cruel, it gives the test first and the lesson afterward.

29. Trading is simple but it is not easy.

30. The easiest time to make money is when there is a trend.

Observations About Jesse Livermore

In his book “How to Trade Stocks” Richard Smitten talks about Jesse Livermore the man and his trading techniques. Here are some of his observations about the legend Jesse Livermore.

He quickly learned that it was never what the brokers, or the customers, or the newspapers said — the only thing that was important was what the tape said. The tape had a life of its own, and its was the most important life. Its verdict was final.

He learned to be interested only in the change in price, not the reason for the change. He had no time to waste trying to rationalize the action of the stock. There could be a million reasons why the price had changed. These reasons would be revealed later, after the fact.

He knew that unless he actually purchased a stock, he could never know how he would handle himself. When a trader made a bet everything changed, and he knew it. Then and only then did the trader enter the heated jungle of emotions.. .fear and greed. You either control them or they control you.

He worked alone.. .never telling anyone what he was doing, never taking on a partner. The trill came from the winning, not the money, though the money was nice.

He never blamed the market. It was illogical to get angry at an inanimate object, like a gambler getting mad at a deck of cards. There was no arguing with the tape. The tape was always right; it was the players who were wrong.

His first conclusion was that he won when all the factors were in his favor, when he was patient and waited for all the ducks to line up in a row. That led him to his second conclusion, that no one could or should trade the market all the time. There were times when a trader should be out of the market, in cash, waiting.

To speculate, a trader had to be a player, not a theorist, or an economist, or an analyst. A speculator had to be a player with money down on the table. It was not the coach or the team’s owner who won the game, it was the players on the field — just as it was not the generals who won the battle, it was the grunts on the ground.

You had to lose, because it taught you what not to do… his conclusions were developing from actual trading, from hands-on participation in the market and constant analysis.

He never used the words bull market or bear market because these terms tended to make too permanent a psychological mind-set.

Livermore was looking for the difference between stock gambling and stock speculation. Livermore’s final conclusion was clear: To anticipate the market is to gamble; to be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate.

The first step was to concentrate on the overall market before making a trade. He would follow the line of least resistance— up in a bull market, buy long, down in a bear market, sell short. If the market went sideways, he would wait in cash for a clear direction to be established…. He would not anticipate the market by guessing its direction… .Livermore had come to realize that the big money was in the big swings… .it is the big moves that make the big money.

Livermore believed that stocks are never too high to begin buying or too low to begin selling short. Livermore believed that there was only one side of the market to avoid. He could be on the bull side or the bear side — it made no difference to Livermore — just as long as he was not on the wrong side.

From experience, Livermore knew that one of the hardest things to do as a trader was to sell out a position early if he was wrong on the initial purchase and the stock moved against him.

He did not care why things happened in the market, he cared only what happened every day when the market opened…. He observed that the market always did what it wanted to do, not what it was expected to do.

Livermore had a steadfast rule that if something serendipitous, an unplanned windfall, should occur, he must capitalize on it and not be greedy — accept his good fortune and close out his position.

Livermore loved the fact that in trading the market there was no end to the learning process. The game was never over, and he could never know enough to beat the market all the time. The puzzle could never be solved…he never considered himself a market master. He always considered himself a market student who occasionally traded correctly.

Livermore had long ago realized that the stock market was never obvious. It was designed to fool most of the people most of the time. His rules were based on thinking against the grain: cut your losses quickly; let your profits ride unless there’s a good reason to close out the position; the action is with the leading stocks, which change with every new market; new highs are to be bought on breakouts; cheap stocks are often not a bargain, because they have little potential to rise in price. The stock market is a study in cycles. It never goes up forever, nor does it go down forever, but when it changes direction it remains in that new trend until it is stopped.

He considered it necessary to act like a poker player in his business, to never tip his hand or to react emotionally. Because of this inability and unwillingness to express his emotions, the stress on him was permanent.

Timing was everything to a speculator. It was never if a stock was going to move; it was when a stock was going to move up or down.

Livermore always considered time as a real and essential trading element. He often would say it’s not the thinking that makes the money — it’s the sitting and waiting that makes the money… .This has been incorrectly interpreted by many people to mean that Livermore would buy a stock and then sit and wait for it to move. This is not so. There were many occasions where Livermore sat and waited in cash, holding little or no stock, until the right situation appeared. He was able to sit and wait patiently in cash until the perfect situation presented itself to him. When conditions came together, when as many of the odds as possible were in his favor, then and only then would he strike.

Livermore let the market tell him what to do, he got his clues and his cues from what the market told him. He did not anticipate, he followed the message he received from the tape.

It’s scary to think how much money Livermore would make if he traded today.. .his ability to read the tape when the tape wasn’t even that reliable. He is in our opinion the best ever. Since the market is an extension of human psychology and human emotion and because people don’t change, the market doesn’t change. The players change; the underlying issues change; trading doesn’t change, and that’s why over 60 years after he committed suicide, Livermore’s words of wisdom are still relevant.

Words of wisdom from Jesse Livermore

No trader can or should play the market all the time. There will be many times when you should be out of the market, sitting in cash waiting patiently for the perfect trade…. ” – Jesse Livermore

“It is foolhardy to make a second trade, if your first trade shows you a loss…. As an ironclad Livermore rule, never average losses. Let that thought be written indelibly and forever upon your mind….” – Jesse Livermore

“Remember that it is dangerous to start spreading out all over the market carrying several positions. Do not have an interest in too many stocks at any one time. It is much easier to watch a few than many….” – Jesse Livermore

“As long as a stock is acting right, and the market is right, be in no hurry to take a profit…. ” – Jesse Livermore (more…)

Words of eternal wisdom

“I sometimes think that speculation must be an unnatural sort of business, because I find the average speculator has arrayed against him his own nature. The weaknesses that all men are prone to are fatal to success in speculation-usually those very weaknesses that makes him likeable to his fellows or that he himself particularly guards against in those other ventures of him where they are not nearly so dangerous as when he is trading in stocks or commodities… The speculator’s chief enemies are always boring from within. It is inseparable to hope and to fear. In speculation when the market goes against you, you hope that every day will be the last day-and you lose more than you should had you not listened to hope-to the same ally that is so potent a success bringer to empire builders and pioneers, big and little. And when the market goes your way you become fearful that the next day will take away your profit, and you get out-too soon. Fear keeps you from making as much money as you ought to. The successful trader has to fight these two deep-seated instincts. He has to reverse what you might call his natural impulses. Instead of hoping he must fear; instead of fearing he must hope. He must fear that his loss may develop into a much bigger loss, and hope that his profit may become a big profit. It is absolutely wrong to gamble in stocks the way the average man does.”

The Five Investing Essential Truths

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Markets are notoriously hard to read and people see only what they themselves want to see.

Bulls will find reasons why certain stocks will go higher, while at the same time, Bears will find many reasons for the same stocks to go lower.

The seldom-admitted truth is that most of the time, markets exist in some indeterminate state!

The main thing is that you cannot trust consensus and you cannot rely on the “Establishment.”

You can’t find refuge in the herd and you must resist the urge to join the crowd.

Your passion of the moment will most certainly create a disaster over the years!

On the other hand, if you do stick with the following five essential truths, you do stand a better than average chance to invest profitably:

1. Markets are unpredictable and ill-suited to forecasts.

2. Long-term fundamentals are key.

3. Investor emotion leads to volatility.

4. Valuation discipline should guide investment selection.

5. Perspective and patience are always well rewarded.

 

Perception vs Reality

“It is often said by experienced investors that the equity market discounts future events. Investors who support that contention believe that if you wait for an event to occur before investing, then you would probably be too late because the investment implications would already have been priced into the particular investment.

The notion that the equity market discounts future events necessarily leads us to the conclusion that the equity  market prices stocks based on perception rather than on reality. Future events that are supposedly being discounted have not yet occurred. Therefore, stock price movements reflect investors’ changing perceptions of what will occur, but not what will certainly occur. If the market were able to discount an event with complete certainty, then we would not worry about volatility or risk.”

The 10 Commandments

1. Thou shall not go against the trend.
If it be down, let it be down. The market is bigger and stronger than you. 
Follow the market but be one step ahead of the crowd.
2. Thou shall not follow the herd instinct
Just because many people are buying a certain stock does not mean you should follow suit. If people want to buy rubbish stocks, that is their bad luck. Don’t make it yours.
3. Thou shall treat the market as a business, not a casino
The stock market is not meant to be a casino and you should not be there to gamble. 
4.Thou shall not buy high-debted and no-earnings stocks
All companies that folded are highly geared with negative earnings. Don’t buy rubbish shares; don’t buy somebody’s liabilities.
5. Thou shall only buy solvent companies with good-growth prospects
Present earnings are important, but future earnings are more important. That’s why we have companies selling at high PER (Price earnings ratios).
6. Thou shall not be overconfident
Overconfidence leads to overtrading. Once you overtrade, you may not be able to control your own emotion. Fear may set in when the market is not going the way you expect it. It may disrupt your plan, turning your profitable trade into a loss. 
7. Thou shall invest within the comfort zone
Don’t be too greedy; don’t play with borrowed money. Debt is a disease. It can cause you a lot of problem if you are not careful.
8. Thou shall be patient
The market is designed to transfer money from the impatient to the patient. You must have very good reasons before you switch counters. Very often, the shares you sell move up faster than the shares you buy.
9. Thou shall be disciplined
Don’t change your strategy at the eleventh hour. If you have placed a stop-loss in your chart, don’t remove it unless it is replaced with a trailing stop-loss.
10. Thou shall be knowledgable
Investment in knowledge pays the best dividend. No one is so skillful that he cannot better his best. Keep learning for knowledge is boundless

Quotes From Legendary Traders

“I absolutely believe that price movement patterns are being repeated; they are recurring patterns that appear over and over. This is because the stocks were being driven by humans- and human nature never changes”.

-Jesse Livermore (Considered by many to be the greatest stock market operator ever. Made 100 million dollars in 1929 stock market crash. Made several other multi-million dollar fortunes in his trading career).
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“You have to cut your losses fast. The secret for winning in the stock market does not include being right all the time. The key is to lose the least amount possible when you are wrong”.

-William J. O’Neil (In my opinion, the best stock market operator in the world today. Has made an incredible fortune trading the stock market. O’Neil is the founder of Investors Business Daily. Much of my stock market education and training has been from William J. O’Neil).
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“Whatever method you use to enter a trade, the most critical thing is that if there is a major trend, your approach should assure that you get in that trend”.

-Richard Dennis (Turned 400 dollars into a fortune of at least 200 million dollars by using his remarkable trading skills).
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“I am primarily a trend trader. In order of importance to me are: (1) the long-term trend, (2) the current chart pattern, and (3) picking a good spot to buy or sell”.

-Ed Seykota (One of the greatest traders of all time. Turned 5000 dollars into an incredible 15 million dollars or more).
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“The most important rule of trading is to play great defense”.

-Paul Tudor Jones (An amazingly consistent and successful trader. In 2006, earned a whopping 750 million dollars).
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“Being right 3 or 4 times out of 10 should yield a person a fortune if he has the sense to cut his losses quickly on the ventures where he has been wrong”.

-Bernard Baruch (Fantastic trader who earned ten’s of millions of dollars in the first part of the 20th century).
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“The greatest safety lies in putting all your eggs in one basket and watching that basket”.

-Gerald M. Loeb (Amassed many millions in the stock market during his long career).
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10 Common Trading Errors

1. Making trades with insufficient study and practice.

2. Making trades out of harmony with the general trend.

3. Taking a position too late after a move is well under way or is completed.

4. Taking a position too soon due to impatience.

5. Improperly estimating the distance a stock should move.

6. Letting eagerness to make profits warp judgment.

7. Failing to keep a position sheet and selecting stocks on hunches rather than calculations.

8. Buying on bulges instead of waiting on reactions.

9. Failing to place and move stops.

10.  Listening to advice from brokers, Blue Channels,, friends, or Website Analysts

Marc Faber's 2010 Investment Outlook: Bullish Sentiment Too High For His Liking

Always the contrarian, Marc Faber’s investing advice for 2010 is this — listen to the experts, and then do the opposite. Faber, the editor of The Gloom Boom & Doom Report, wrote in his most recent January newsletter that he was bullish on U.S. stocks.

Nothing lasts forever, though.

He’s changed his mind after participating in this week’s Barron’s round-table discussion. “Everybody was looking for further gains in stocks,” he tells Henry in this clip. That opinion is also reflected by Bloomberg’s latest investor survey, which registered its highest level of bullish sentiment since the survey began in 2007.

That overwhelming consensus worries Faber. He now thinks a correction in U.S. stocks could come much sooner than most predict. Momentum players who are driving the market could “pull the trigger relatively quickly,” he says. He also observes that the charts of stocks favored by momentum investors, like Google, RIM, Apple and Amazon, look to be flattening out.

Overall, 2010 will not be one for the record books, as 2009 was. He’s looking at a more normal 5%-10% rate of return for global investors.

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