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When Buffet Breaks His Rules

Reading some headlines, I see that Buffet has “dumped Walmart” and “bought airline stocks” both of which seem to violate his rules: 1. to keep a stock forever and 2. never buy airlines.

It would seem that the math of such a big fund has forced him to change. Buying a small market value stock and riding the exponential growth once it succeeds no longer adds much to his returns. Since he is so diversified with such big companies hanging on forever gives market like returns and one is much more efficient by buying an index. So it would seem he is left with trying to time the market, on big companies and/or sectors, to add value to his shareholders.

My question is has he been successful when he has violated his rules in the past? Or does he like most of us get humbled by the markets when we try something new?

Observations About Jesse Livermore

In his book “How to Trade Stocks” Richard Smitten talks about Jesse Livermore the man and his trading techniques. Here are some of his observations about the legend Jesse Livermore.

He quickly learned that it was never what the brokers, or the customers, or the newspapers said — the only thing that was important was what the tape said. The tape had a life of its own, and its was the most important life. Its verdict was final.

He learned to be interested only in the change in price, not the reason for the change. He had no time to waste trying to rationalize the action of the stock. There could be a million reasons why the price had changed. These reasons would be revealed later, after the fact.

He knew that unless he actually purchased a stock, he could never know how he would handle himself. When a trader made a bet everything changed, and he knew it. Then and only then did the trader enter the heated jungle of emotions.. .fear and greed. You either control them or they control you.

He worked alone.. .never telling anyone what he was doing, never taking on a partner. The trill came from the winning, not the money, though the money was nice.

He never blamed the market. It was illogical to get angry at an inanimate object, like a gambler getting mad at a deck of cards. There was no arguing with the tape. The tape was always right; it was the players who were wrong.

His first conclusion was that he won when all the factors were in his favor, when he was patient and waited for all the ducks to line up in a row. That led him to his second conclusion, that no one could or should trade the market all the time. There were times when a trader should be out of the market, in cash, waiting.

To speculate, a trader had to be a player, not a theorist, or an economist, or an analyst. A speculator had to be a player with money down on the table. It was not the coach or the team’s owner who won the game, it was the players on the field — just as it was not the generals who won the battle, it was the grunts on the ground.

You had to lose, because it taught you what not to do… his conclusions were developing from actual trading, from hands-on participation in the market and constant analysis.

He never used the words bull market or bear market because these terms tended to make too permanent a psychological mind-set.

Livermore was looking for the difference between stock gambling and stock speculation. Livermore’s final conclusion was clear: To anticipate the market is to gamble; to be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate.

The first step was to concentrate on the overall market before making a trade. He would follow the line of least resistance— up in a bull market, buy long, down in a bear market, sell short. If the market went sideways, he would wait in cash for a clear direction to be established…. He would not anticipate the market by guessing its direction… .Livermore had come to realize that the big money was in the big swings… .it is the big moves that make the big money.

Livermore believed that stocks are never too high to begin buying or too low to begin selling short. Livermore believed that there was only one side of the market to avoid. He could be on the bull side or the bear side — it made no difference to Livermore — just as long as he was not on the wrong side.

From experience, Livermore knew that one of the hardest things to do as a trader was to sell out a position early if he was wrong on the initial purchase and the stock moved against him.

He did not care why things happened in the market, he cared only what happened every day when the market opened…. He observed that the market always did what it wanted to do, not what it was expected to do.

Livermore had a steadfast rule that if something serendipitous, an unplanned windfall, should occur, he must capitalize on it and not be greedy — accept his good fortune and close out his position.

Livermore loved the fact that in trading the market there was no end to the learning process. The game was never over, and he could never know enough to beat the market all the time. The puzzle could never be solved…he never considered himself a market master. He always considered himself a market student who occasionally traded correctly.

Livermore had long ago realized that the stock market was never obvious. It was designed to fool most of the people most of the time. His rules were based on thinking against the grain: cut your losses quickly; let your profits ride unless there’s a good reason to close out the position; the action is with the leading stocks, which change with every new market; new highs are to be bought on breakouts; cheap stocks are often not a bargain, because they have little potential to rise in price. The stock market is a study in cycles. It never goes up forever, nor does it go down forever, but when it changes direction it remains in that new trend until it is stopped.

He considered it necessary to act like a poker player in his business, to never tip his hand or to react emotionally. Because of this inability and unwillingness to express his emotions, the stress on him was permanent.

Timing was everything to a speculator. It was never if a stock was going to move; it was when a stock was going to move up or down.

Livermore always considered time as a real and essential trading element. He often would say it’s not the thinking that makes the money — it’s the sitting and waiting that makes the money… .This has been incorrectly interpreted by many people to mean that Livermore would buy a stock and then sit and wait for it to move. This is not so. There were many occasions where Livermore sat and waited in cash, holding little or no stock, until the right situation appeared. He was able to sit and wait patiently in cash until the perfect situation presented itself to him. When conditions came together, when as many of the odds as possible were in his favor, then and only then would he strike.

Livermore let the market tell him what to do, he got his clues and his cues from what the market told him. He did not anticipate, he followed the message he received from the tape.

It’s scary to think how much money Livermore would make if he traded today.. .his ability to read the tape when the tape wasn’t even that reliable. He is in our opinion the best ever. Since the market is an extension of human psychology and human emotion and because people don’t change, the market doesn’t change. The players change; the underlying issues change; trading doesn’t change, and that’s why over 60 years after he committed suicide, Livermore’s words of wisdom are still relevant.

How to know when to exit your position?

This started as a quirky post but quickly turned into something probably more useful. I admit the post is based on personal experiences. Luckily, I do not make these mistakes any more….at least not very often ;). Enjoy!

1) It is time to sell when…..you find yourself using extra technical indicators on charts to justify holding your position that you didnt use to get into it in the first place!

2) It is time to sell when…..you find yourself going to yahoo message boards to see if someone has some positive news that you don’t know!

3) It is time to sell when…..you find yourself justifying to yourself holding a position for fundamental reasons when you entered it for technical reasons!

4) It is time to sell when…..when you listen to an ” Idiot expert” on Blue Channels  or Joker Analysts Websites  to chart a stock checking for entry when you are already in it!

Let me know if you readers have any other such fun “indicators” and I shall add them.

Key of Success is Timing in Trading- Anirudh Sethi

Image result for timingThe significance of market timing can’t be depicted by just a single thing. There are a few reasons why anybody intrigued by trading rates and products, Forex, ETF’s and stocks would need to sharpen their market timing aptitudes. The greatest single imperative reason that rings a bell is that of limiting your hazard presentation. At the point when there is a considerable measure of cash at hazard, it is anything but difficult to begin questioning your unique explanations behind putting on the trade when the market begins moving against your position. On the off chance that you have been trading for any time span, undoubtedly you have encountered the feelings I portray. Initially, maybe you do a little pattern estimating utilizing some Gann or Fibonacci strategy, or your most loved marker. You feel entirely sure about the choice to go long the market at a specific cost and along these lines, you enter correctly as arranged. Market timing is the system of settling on the purchase or offer choices of monetary resources (frequently stocks) by endeavoring to foresee future market value developments. The expectation might be founded on a viewpoint of a market or monetary conditions coming about because of the specialized or principal investigator. This is a venture methodology in light of the standpoint for a total market, as opposed to for a specific monetary resource.

Timing is Built upon Financial Strategies

Regardless of whether the market timing is ever a practical speculation methodology is disputable. Some may consider showcase timing to be a type of betting in view of immaculate shot since they don’t put stock in underestimated or exaggerated markets. The effective market speculation guarantees that money related costs dependably show irregular walk conduct and hence can’t be anticipated with consistency. The market clock looks to offer at the ‘top’ and purchase at the ‘base’. In this way, if financing costs increment, the market clock may offer a few or the greater part of his stocks and buy more securities to exploit what might be a ‘crested’ market for stocks and the start of a blast for securities. Market clocks trust here and now value developments are critical and frequently unsurprising; this is the reason they regularly allude to factual inconsistencies, repeating designs, and other information that backings a connection between’s sure data and stock costs. A market clock’s speculation skyline can be months, days, or even hours or minutes. Latent financial specialists, then again, assess a speculation’s long haul potential and depend more on the key investigation of the organization behind the security, for example, the organization’s long haul procedure, the nature of its items, or the organization’s associations with the administration when choosing whether to purchase or offer. (more…)

4 More Rules to Trade

 

1. Average Winners Not Losers.  It is not “don’t frown, average down”; it is applying the discipline to cut losers short and adding to winners that separates the successful from the unsuccessful.  If you have a winning stock then add to it.  If you have a losing stock then get rid of it. 

2.  Never Let a Winner Turn Into A Loser.  Greed is the cause of this mistake.  Let the market tell you when to exit a trade, not whether you have a profit or not.  “If your trade is acting well, as defined by key indicators, and the market activity is supporting your position, stay in.  If not, its go time!” Do not let a good profit vanish into thin air because you want more than the market is willing to give.

3. Never Mix Disciplines.  If you day trade then day trade and do not let a day trade turn into a swing trade.  If you swing trade do not let your swing trade turn into an investment. Follow the rules based on the discipline of your time frame.

4.  Never Try To Trade Back A loser.  In other words, each trade is a new one and should not be used to win back money lost in the last trade.  Always trade in the present not in the past where too many emotional and psychology factors can affect the current trade.  Revenge does not pay in or out of the market. 

Ten Ways to Trade Like the Legendary William J. O’Neil:

  1. Do not diversify broadly, instead focus on the leading stocks in the best industry groups.
  2. Cut any loss when the stock is down 7%/8% from your buy point.
  3. Buy stocks that are going up in value, not down.
  4. Add to a position as the stock goes up in value from your buy point not at lower prices.
  5. Buy stocks near their highs for the year not their lows.
  6. Study price charts to discover how the best stocks behaved historically in price action.
  7. Trade in the right direction based on the trend of the general market.
  8. Buy the best stocks in the market as they break out of properly formed bases or when they bounce off their 50 day moving averages.
  9. Do not be influenced by others, trade your plan.
  10. Buy stocks with the best earnings and sales growth at the right time using charts.

14 Meaningless Stock Market Phrases

14 Meaningless Phrases That Will Make You Sound Like A Stock-Market Wizard

“The easy money has been made.”
“I’m cautiously optimistic.”
“It’s a stockpicker’s market.”
“It’s not a stock market. It’s a market of stocks.”
“We’re constructive on the market.”
“Stocks are down on ‘profit taking.’”
“The trend is your friend.”
“More buyers than sellers.”
“There’s lots of cash on the sidelines.”
“We’re in a bottoming process.”
“Overbought.”
“Buy on weakness.”
“Take a wait-and-see approach.”
“It’s a show-me stock.”

The Secret to Trading Success

Secret-ASRThe most important thing you must learn in every market cycle  is where the money is flowing. It is flowing into the companies where the earnings are growing. As long as mutual funds have capital in flows instead of net out flows then they must put new money to work investing in stocks. If you want to make your job as a trader much easier then find where the flow is going. Mutual fund managers can not go to an all cash position they can only move money around. A bear market sinks most stocks because managers have to sell everything to raise money to redeem shares. In an uptrend they have to buy stocks with the incoming money flows. Where does this money go? It goes into the sectors and stocks that are in favor due to increased earnings in a sector and individual stocks that are dominating their sector and changing the world in the process. You want the leaders not the has been. You want the best the market has to offer. Where are consumers dollars flowing into? That is where the money is going. What companies have the best growth prospects? The stock can only grow in price if the underlying company does. Mutual fund managers are the biggest customers in the market when they start buying a stock that increases huge demand and price support.

Your job is to follow the big money, shorting in bear markets, going long in bull markets. Following the trend of what is in favor. Do not fight the action, flow with it.

Quit having opinions and start being a detective looking for the smart money, the fast money, the big money and where it is going now.

Qualities of Successful Traders

Emotional stability. You don’t have to be nuts to trade, but it helps!  That is a joke, of course. Emotional stability is grace under pressure. A successful trader must be able to remain calm in difficult situations. Traders that rank very high on the emotional stability scale have very low anxiety levels, remain calm, relaxed, and have a low suspicion level. They tend to be trusting individuals and are not paranoid. You won’t hear them blame the market makers for forcing the stock to hit their stop and they take responsibility for their actions. Successful traders tend to be well
grounded.
 

Discipline. Successful traders are ones that can follow the rules. They are the guys that drive the speed limit. They tend to be perfectionist and take pride in their work. They like to take a project from start to finish and get joy from completing it successfully. Pilots, trained to follow checklists, tend to make good traders. An impulse oriented individual will have difficulty achieving the discipline to become a successful trader.
 

Intelligence. Bill says that successful traders tend to be intelligent. They need not have the IQ of Einstein but they are above average in intelligence. They tend to be good problem solvers and good with numbers, such as statistics. They understand that trading is based on probability, that not every trade will work as planned.

10 Common Trading Errors

1. Making trades with insufficient study and practice.

2. Making trades out of harmony with the general trend.

3. Taking a position too late after a move is well under way or is completed.

4. Taking a position too soon due to impatience.

5. Improperly estimating the distance a stock should move.

6. Letting eagerness to make profits warp judgment.

7. Failing to keep a position sheet and selecting stocks on hunches rather than calculations.

8. Buying on bulges instead of waiting on reactions.

9. Failing to place and move stops.

10.  Listening to advice from brokers, Blue Channels,, friends, or Website Analysts

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