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Loss – It can’t happen to me

  
  Education
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Ever seen an Ostrich with its head buried deep in the sand? There is a popular belief that the Ostrich buries its head in the sand, when in danger. It thinks that if it cannot see others, others can’t see it either.

That Ostrich is an example of Normalcy Bias. It happens to people who are facing a disaster. It causes people to underestimate the chances of the occurrence of the disaster. They think “it has not happened before, it will not happen again”, and live in denial. The result? People end up with less-than-adequate preparations for the disaster. And they cannot cope with the changed reality either.

An Ostrich buries its head in the sand, when faced by an enemy
Disaster planning and normalcy bias (more…)

Accepting Losses?

  
  Education
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acceptinglossThe markets do not know you!

 You do not exist to them in any other form than as the other side of a transaction.

 They do not care if it is your last cent, and your kids will not have milk, and on, and on.

 Markets need losers so they can make money in this zero-minus-sum game.

 But please … do remember that taking an acceptable risk reward ratio position and being wrong is not  losing!

 Whether you win or lose, you should always strive to remain at a comfortable emotional state. Building a
 proper plan is enormously helpful in getting you to do just that.

 Many people know what to do; yet very few are able to do what they know! It is the rules that force one
 to take the proper actions.

 Losers often think that the rules are made for others. Think that they are not for you?

 Think again!

 Fight the rules and you will have a very short career! 

 The stock markets can be a great place to turn your savings into wealth. 

 On the other hand, if you do not keep the fundamental investment rules and do not follow certain
 simple stock investing basics, you can lose your shirt. 

 Anirudh sethi says that IF:  (more…)

For Stocks, September May Be the Cruelest Month

  
Analysis, Education, LINKS
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sept09

601

September is fewer than three weeks away. Feeling nervous? Maybe you should be. For investors, the period between Labor Day and Halloween is proving an annual fright show. And no one knows why.

It was, of course, in September last year that Lehman collapsed and everything fell apart. But then it was also September-October 2002 that the last bear market plunged to its lows.

The 1998 financial crisis? It began late August, and rolled on for two months

The famous crash of 1987 came in October. But most people have forgotten that the market actually started sliding downhill in late August. (more…)

Mr.Warren Buffett :Buy and Hold -Failed

  
Analysis, Economy, Education
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From the wires today:

“OMAHA, Neb. (AP) — Warren Buffett’s company reported a 40 percent drop in second-quarter profit Friday because the improvement at Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s operating companies couldn’t overcome $1.4 billion in paper losses on derivative contracts. Berkshire’s strong performances from its railroad, insurance and manufacturing businesses was overshadowed by the plummeting value of the Omaha company’s derivatives — many of which are tied to the value of four major stock markets.”

From Buffett himself in 2002:

“The derivatives genie is now well out of the bottle, and these instruments will almost certainly multiply in variety and number until some event makes their toxicity clear. Central banks and governments have so far found no effective way to control, or even monitor, the risks posed by these contracts. In my view, derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction, carrying dangers that, while now latent, are potentially lethal.”

From Bloomberg recently:

“Buffett’s well known for his criticism of derivatives. Yet Berkshire in recent years has become a big player, with some $60 billion in derivatives contracts. Under any new derivatives regulation, Berkshire would be likely to have to produce collateral for new derivatives contracts it writes. This would limit the attractiveness of new derivatives deals for Buffett, who has boasted that Berkshire rarely does a deal that calls for it to produce collateral. But that’s not why Buffett has been pushing back against the financial reform bill in the Senate. Instead, Buffett says he’s concerned that the legislation would impose collateral requirements on existing contracts — which he says would be illegal. Sen. Ben Nelson, D-Neb., made the same case this week as he defected from the Democrats backing the financial reform bill. Whatever his logic, pushing back on derivatives reform has the interesting side effect of aligning Buffett, with his sterling reputation, with the widely derided Wall Street banks.”

Buy and hold? Buying strong businesses? Derivatives are weapons of mass destruction? Bailouts of many of the components of BRKA? Does anyone have the cajones to criticize Buffett? There has to be at least one emasculated weenie out there who will come on here and tell me that I can’t criticize America’s wealthiest just because he is rich. Right?

The Buffett myth is just that — a myth. If not for the fall 2008 bailouts, he would be on the senior circuit revising history along with Greenspan. Why my stark view on this lovely sunny morning in beautiful Southern California? Cause no matter how many books populate Amazon, all preaching about how you can become the next Buffett, they are all disingenuous fairy tales.

Tells

  
  Education
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tellTells: Look for them, and you will find them. Poker players and stock markets have tells — giveaway moves that are very revealing. Learn to recognize them. History is your textbook. (For example, improving corporate financials usually presage a rally; conversely, deteriorating financials usually augur poor market performance)

7 concepts that can make you a better trader

  
  Education
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New traders spend lot of time on indicators, scans, or chart pattern. Lot of that effort is wasted. Instead they should focus on core concepts.

 
If you understand core concepts you will find understanding the market and techniques used by traders easier. All the indicators and techniques are based on some underlying core concept. Many times the people who promote some of these indicators do not understand the core concept or purposefully package their indicators as something that is anti thesis of a core concept.
 

If you are serious about your trading there are some concepts you must know in significant details. Those concepts will help you build a strong foundation on which you can build a trading system. There are seven  concepts you should study:
  • Momentum : If you understand this you will understand trends and mean reversion. You will understand why and how momentum works in the market. Most indicators are momentum based. Trend following and buying strength also works, so does mean reversion. They are all part of the momentum phenomenon. 
  • Market Breadth: Stock markets are composite markets. The overall move in market is an aggregate of moves of several hundred or several thousand stocks. So the level of participation in a move is important. 
  • Equity Selection: Because the overall market is a composite of many individual moves, it becomes critical to select right kind of stocks from the universe of stocks. Hence equity selection is extremely critical. You should know various ways in which one can select equities.
  • Market Anomalies: Market anomalies are the distortions in the market. If you base your trading on a proven and statistically significant anomaly, you will be profitable. Absent that no amount of indicators will help you. A through understanding of anomalies will give you an edge.
  • Market Microstructure: Market Microstructure is a branch of finance concerned with the details of how exchange occurs in markets.  Understanding this will tell you how the market operates. The concept of market microstructre is very critical if you are trading very small time frames or are a day trader. Because to be successful on those time frame you need to find exploitable anomalies in market microstructure. You need to understand role played by market makers, automated programs, arbitragers, large fund buyers and so on. Their tactics and behaviour creates certain patterns 
  • Growth investing : Growth investors buy stocks of companies growing faster than the average company in the market. 
  • Value investing : Value investors buy stocks of companies which are cheap or out of favor.
These are the core concepts around which all trading strategies revolve.

Four Poisons

  
  Education
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There is a Korean martial art called Kum Do. This is a brutal game that involves a fight to the death with very sharp swords. The way it is practiced today is with bamboo sticks, but the moves are the same. Kum Do teaches the student warriors to avoid what are called “The Four Poisons of the Mind.” These are: fear, confusion, hesitation and surprise. In Kum Do, the student must be constantly on guard to never anticipate the next move of the opponent. Likewise, the student must never allow his natural tendencies for prediction to get the better of him. Having a preconceived bias of what the markets or the opponents will do can lead to momentary confusion and—in the case of Kum Do—to death. A single blow in Kum Do can be lethal, and is the final cut, since the object is to kill the opponent. One blow—>death—>game over.

Instead of predicting, anticipating, and being in fear and confusion, you must do exactly the opposite if you are to survive a death blow from the market movements. You must watch with a calm, clear and collected attitude and strike at the right time. A few seconds of anticipation, hesitation or confusion can mean the difference between life and death in Kum Do—and wins or losses in the stock markets. If you are not in tune with the four poisons of fear, confusion, hesitation or surprise in the markets, you are at risk for ruin. Ruin means that your money is gone and the game is over.

How can you avoid the four poisons of the trading mind: fear, confusion, hesitation and surprise?

Replace fear with faith—faith in your trading model and trading plan

Replace confusion with the attitude of being comfortable with uncertainty

Replace hesitation with decisive action

Replace surprise with taking nothing for granted and preparing yourself for anything.

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