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Trading Wisdom – Jesse Livermore

  
  Education
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JesseLivermore

Many books have been written by and about Mr. Livermore. He was a fascinating individual who reportedly made $100 million in a single day in the 1929 crash.
Legend has it that during the crash J.P. Morgan personally walked over to the N.Y. Stock exchange to ask Jesse Livermore to stop selling and start buying in order to save the markets.
He was an expert at following the right trend, with the exception of marriage. His wife was married about four times prior to marrying him, and all four husbands killed themselves, as did Jesse eventually. Not quite marriage counselor material, he is nonetheless one of the greatest wells of trading wisdom from which I have quenched my thirst in the past.
I am a much better trader because of Jesse Livermore. Every time I get stuck in a trading rut, I review my notes on his trading philosophies, which I would like to share with you below. (more…)

Probability in Trading

  
Analysis, Education
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The indulgence of probability

Probability in day trading is an extremely flexible and equally subjective authority. It is one such aspect that provides for a comprehensive room in terms of making decisions and analysing the potential effects of the decision as well. It can be envisioned as a semi-mechanical process which is based on an automated system comprising of various probabilities that depict two possible results at the end of it all.

Application of the laws of probability to determine market curve

The laws of probability are majorly applied to the stock market arena in speculating the growth curve. One of the most common examples is the influence of present growth on a stock. For instance the laws of probability in stock market confers to the fact that a stock is expected to underperform following an adverse growth session since major players tend to reap in the benefits without further risk involvement.

The substantial loss is incurred since major proportions of the people seemingly think alike and want to either cash out with the profits they have made or simply by virtue of the fear of losing money. Either way the scenario is completely structured owing to the presumptuous thinking of the common people and the misguiding statistical analysis with probability at its core.

It is therefore easily understandable that probability plays a comprehensive role at the crux of shaping the stock market manoeuvres. Probability in day trading is completely speculative yet self-induced as well. In an easier and subtle language it can be envisioned as a pseudo element that helps to shape the movements. It is significantly a common entity that is extensively present at the back of the mind in each trader.  

Probability based trading (more…)

Russell Napier’s Anatomy of the Bear -Book Review

  
  Education
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Described as “a cult classic in the investment community,” Russell Napier’s Anatomy of the Bear: Lessons from Wall Street’s Four Great Bottoms, first published in 2005, is now in its fourth edition, with a new foreword and preface (Harriman House, 2016).

Napier remains a bear. He believes that the run-up in the markets we have seen since 2009 is merely a bear market rally. The “inexorable pressure” from rising consumption in China and increasing retirement in the U.S. “augurs deflation and thus can unleash the force that will push equities to valuation levels associated with the bear market bottoms of 1921, 1932, 1949 and 1982.” (p. 13)

August 1921, July 1932, June 1949, and August 1982: four summer bottoms. What do they have in common? And what can we learn from them to steer ourselves through the next “big one,” whenever it may occur?

To study the nature of bear market bottoms, and how investors reacted to them, Napier analyzed “some 70,000 articles from the Wall Street Journal written in the two months either side of the four great bear market bottoms.” From his research he unearths “approaches that have worked in assessing when the bear is about to become the bull. What also emerges is an understanding of how similar the great four bear-market bottoms were, in turn leading us to a set of signals to guide investment strategy.” (p. 27)

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Mental Fitness Tips that Every Trader Should Know -Anirudh Sethi

  
Analysis, Education
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Mental Fitness for Traders makes no thought of your money related conditions. All material introduced inside is not to be viewed as venture exhortation, but rather for general enlightening purposes as it was. Trading stocks, fates, Forex, and choices do include chance, so alert should dependably be used. We can’t ensure benefits or flexibility from misfortune. You accept the whole cost and danger of any trading you attempt. You are exclusively in charge of settling on your own speculation choices. Trading achievement is needy more on the dealer’s enthusiastic state than on the system utilized, paying little respect to how vigorous it might be. We are people so having feelings like fear and voracity is ordinary in our everyday life yet not in trading when we are trading we need to act like machines or robots. Regardless of whether you’re a specialist trader or only a tenderfoot, a great tip can measurably affect your main concern. A couple of the world’s best Forex dealers we’re made a request to uncover the best three hints, traps, and strategies that assist them trade gainfully. The great ones are found and developed. The Bad ones… well, you see achievement is just a couple of basic orders, honed each day; while disappointment is essentially a couple of blunders in judgment, rehashed each day. Up to 75-80% of traders are, for the most parts. Make a bigger number of misfortunes than benefits. With such low achievement rates, stock trading may be among the more unsafe calling around. Be that as it may, the 20%+ that do profit reliably, appears to take after the same mental chain of considerations and we thought it may be fascinating to represent some of those musings here for the advantages of our pursuers.

Passion for Trading

The larger topic of good trading propensities is the absence of feelings. The less passionate you are, the more effective you can apply your psyche. When you put your brain to trading you have a tendency to pose more inquiries, actually! A few things that may ring a bell when you make inquiries could be:

Does this flag demonstrate a long or short position?

  • How is the market, in general?
  • How huge would a position it be advisable for me to take?
  • What would I be able to manage?
  • Are more individuals discussing my stock now, than prior?
  • Is the market assumption evolving? Which way?

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36 Points For Traders

  
Analysis, Education
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  1. You absolutely have to find a vent to release pressure and adrenaline – sports, drinking, painting, anything that helps.
  2. If you can manage to find a mentor in which you believe, you will make it much faster.
  3. Your trading style has to fit your personality and your lifestyle, or cognitive dissonance will get the better of you.
  4. Meditation sucks, doesn’t work for me.
  5. Overtrading is your death.
  6. Once you are comfortable missing a move, you will be able to trade profitably.
  7. Not trading the news does not make sense at all – during news there is real liquidity and a real interest to push prices in one way or another. Let the market show its hand, then get in.
  8. Let it turn, let price create structure, THEN get in, with the structure as protection in your back.
  9. Don’t system hop, but adapt the system of your choosing to your needs.
  10. Don’t trade overleveraged.
  11. Yes, it is possible to turn a small account into a huge account, but don’t expect it to happen overnight, and don’t expect to be able to do it before your fifth (or so) year of trading.
  12. Some are faster, some are slower, some will never get it.
  13. Risk per trade is a function of the volatility of your strategy and your psychological ability to deal with swings in your equity.
  14. Know exactly why you are trading, and what you want to achieve – which career path will be yours?
  15. Daytrading is not easier than swingtrading or vice versa. They both simply require different skillsets, different abilities (yes, some people are just too slow for daytrading) and different preparation routines.
  16. Trust your gut. Absolutely love the trade? Get in. Don’t love it? Just stay out.
  17. No pain, no gain. Demo trading is ok, but don’t do it for too long. Risk micro amounts of money, get used to losing money. Because you will lose for the rest of your life if you want to be a trader. It’s part of the game. You “just” need to win more than you lose.
  18. Listening to music while trading can be a good thing – just know yourself. If I listen to aggressive music in the car, I will push the pedal to the metal. The same happens when trading.
  19. Have a trading journal and review, review, review.
  20. Work on your psychology, but don’t underestimate the power of knowledge. Fear stems from not knowing. Work hard, know more, be more confident. Most psychological issues will dissolve into thin air.
  21. Yes, I said: don’t system hop. But for the first year or two, try out everything you can. Every market, every strategy, every trading style. How can you know what fits your personality if you don’t know what’s out there? Finally, decide and take the leap of faith.
  22. Screen time alone won’t help you. Again: review. REVIEW! You need an effective feedback loop or you will repeat the same mistakes again, and again, and again. There is no learning by doing in trading.
  23. You don’t need to be hyper intelligent to be a trader. The best traders I know are “simple” minds. They do what works, they have no ego, and they disregard what does not make sense to them.
  24. Do not have monetary goals. Have process-oriented goals.
  25. Do not look at your P&L during your trading session or you WILL trade your P&L. Before and after a trading session, the money in your account is money, yes. During the session, however, the money in your account is ammunition that has to be spent in order to acquire more ammunition, if that makes sense.
  26. Trading with the trend is not easier than trading against the trend. Trading with the trend is the last thing I learned and every single trader I know seems to have the hardest time following a trend.
  27. If you want to pay for education, do your research. It is very possible to differentiate the scammers from the real traders. If something sounds too good to be true, run as fast as you can.
  28. Never forget to be grateful at the end of the day. You are given the chance to make money by clicking a mouse from the comfort of your home. How many people on earth can say the same?
  29. Trading fulltime is often romanticized but can quickly turn into a social nightmare. Keep up that work-life-balance.
  30. Find other mental challenges for your brain than trading. Feeding your body McDonalds everyday will, and nothing else, will kill you. Trading every day without reading a good novel once in a while will make you braindead.
  31. Likewise, there are lots of videos on Youtube with quite good content. You need to find a way to distinguish the goodies from the baddies.
  32. Don’t be mistaken, trading is gambling. You want to be a professional gambler? Make up your mind.
  33. A structured pre-trading routine is one of the best things you will ever do in your career as a trader. Take your time to create and establish it.
  34. Learn your basic and classic price patterns such as Head & Shoulders, Wedges, Triangles, etc. It takes a week to get them all into your head and you will profit from that knowledge for years to come.
  35. Never pick tops and bottoms. Take the middle of the moves and your results will improve.
  36. Believe in your abilities and trust your strategy or you will be destroyed.

That’s it for now. I have plenty more of these in my tattered and very, very old notebook. Which do you agree with, which not? Do you want more of my wartime wisdoms? Let me know in the comments below!

9 things know yourself in order to obtain success in trading

  
Analysis, Education
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  • An aspiring trader has to understand what her/his hook is and construct her/his style of negotiation around this hook. Ask yourself some questions and determine what about the markets attracts you to it.
  • Do you like the adrenaline and the emotion of the competition? Or do you prefer a more controlled form of making decisions?
  • Are you more academic and inclined to perform investigations of the market? Or do you feel more comfortable trusting your instincts and intuition?
  • Are you set by defined rules and prefer to use a calculator? Or are you more qualitative in making your decisions?
  • Are you interested in international matters?
  • Are you interested in the ins and outs of individual companies? Or are you interested in economic theory?
  • What is it that you want from trading, to be the next George Soros? Do you want the liberty of working from home? Do want an additional source of income and profit?
  • Responding to these questions will help you easily in defining what type of trader you will become.
  • To determine what motivates you in the markets. But this is just the beginning. Once you know what motivates you, you can begin to determine the type of markets in which you should operate, the trading profile that you should adopt, and the additional preparation so that your trading will go further than just the basics. This is the best way to become a successful trader, the comprehension of the markets, the strategy, and the profile that best adjusts for you, by this manner you will maximize your profitability.

Sun Tzu and Trading -Anirudh Sethi

  
Analysis, Education
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Image result for Sun Tzu and TradingThe money market is a considered to be a wrangle amongst purchasers and vendors on the estimations of organizations. That is the pleasant clarification. To outline it in another light – the share trading system is a war amongst purchasers and vendors, who each need to take the others cash. Money markets are harsh, and in the event that you don’t approach it with the manner of a disturbed general, you will lose. In the share trading system, pleasant folks complete last. Sun Tzu’s, The Art of War serves to highlight numerous parts of trading since trading the market is much similar to fighting. Sun Tzu’s Art of War is an exemplary bit of work that is broadly perused and connected to many fields, because of its major nature that is exceptionally versatile to numerous parts of our lives. In this post, I separated parts of the work and connected to trading and in doing as such plan to acquaint the critical trading ideas with you. I have likewise assembled and classified them for simple comprehension.

War as Art and So as Trade

The first Art of War is an assemblage of lessons composed and instructed by Sun Tzu, a 6th century B.C. Chinese General/Philosopher. Its insight is immortal and has developed in prominence. It is, truth be told, required perusing at each military foundation on the planet and can be found in most corporate meeting rooms. In this adjustment of the ace’s work of art, super trader Dean Lundell applies Sun Tzu’s lessons to the specialty of contributing – from outlining an individual trading plan to timing market moves, to gathering information from a worldwide data organize. Each wonderfully composed spread opens with a section from Sun Tzu and is then translated and clarified for its vital pertinence to trading stocks, bonds, fates, and items. Guided by Sun Tzu’s old shrewdness, tenderfoot, and expert traders can utilize these great military methodologies to overcome the market! Understudies of the market are continually fighting the feelings of dread and avarice. The Art of War can enable you to cut a way between these two feelings and lead you to a mental place that will always enable you to put your best foot forward. In this arrangement, I will address different poor trading propensities by excerpting and deciphering different sections. While my understandings are not intended to be authoritative by any extent of the creative energy I will likely make them think. They say the round of golf is not played on the green. It’s played between your two ears. Trading fates, Forex, alternatives, or stocks are similarly. Your psychological distraction must be adequate. If not, disappointment is unavoidable. At last, I trust you observe the teaching to be a theorist and not only your standard speculator.

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Michael Lewis’ Flash Boys: A Wall Street Revolt -A Remarkable Read

  
  Education
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Michael Lewis has a spellbinding talent for finding emotional dramas in complex, highly technical subjects. He did it for the role of left tackle in American football in The Blind Side (2006), and for the science of picking baseball players in Moneyball (2003). In Flash Boys, he turns his gaze on high-frequency computerised trading in US stock markets.

In terms of sheer storytelling technique, Flash Boys is remarkable. High-frequency trading, although often in the news when things go wrong, as in the 2010 “flash crash”, is hard for a specialist to understand, let alone the average reader. It is as if a violinist, bored with the repertoire, opted to play Paganini right-handed as a challenge.

Lewis reaches a stark conclusion: US stock markets are now rigged by traders who go to astonishing lengths to gain a millisecond edge over their rivals. As the innocent investor presses a button to buy shares, they leap invisibly into electronic markets to profit from the order and thousands of others, siphoning off billions of dollars a year.

The rise of high-frequency trading (HFT) was encouraged by a regulation passed in 2005, which aimed to open large exchanges such as the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq to stiffer competition. The idea was to make trading fairer; it instead unleashed, in Lewis’s view and that of other critics, a tidal wave of algorithmic front-running by traders whose superfast connections to stock exchanges allow them to react to buying and selling before others can. (more…)

Trading Wisdom

  
  Education
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What I say to the youngling…
“Pray for the best, plan for the worst and go about our everyday business”

“It is one of the great paradoxes of the stock market that what seems too high usually goes higher and what seems too low usually goes lower.” – William O’Neil

“When asked if there was a technique for making money on the stock exchange, Nathan Rothschild said, “There certainly is. I never buy at the bottom and I always sell too soon.” – William O’Neil

“Only a fool holds out for the top dollars,” said Joe Kennedy, one-time wall street speculator and the father of former President John F. Kennedy. The object is to get out while a stock is up, before it has a chance to break. Gerald M. Loeb states, ” Once the price has risen into estimated normal or overvaluation areas, the amount held should be reduced steadily as quotation advance.” (At this point it’s all right to ask yourself, “Why didn’t I sell when it was going up and looked so strong?”)” — William O’Neil

“Another thing to bear in mind is this: Never try to sell at the top. It isn’t wise. Sell after a reaction if there is no rally.” – Jesse Livermore

How to Develop Yourself as a Trader -Anirudh Sethi

  
Analysis, Education
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There is a well-known axiom in business: “Neglect to plan and you intend to fall flat.” It might sound chatty, yet the individuals who are not kidding about being fruitful, including traders, ought to take after these eight words as though they were composed of stone. Ask any trader who profits on a reliable premise and they will let you know, “You have two options: you can either efficiently take after a composed arrangement, or come up short.” Mastering the specialty of Forex trading is not as basic as it appears. Each and every day the number of retail traders in the internet trading group is expanding at an exponential rate because of its outrageous level of benefit potential. The master traders at Saxo have secured their money related opportunity in life just by trading the live resources in the market. Be that as it may, keeping in mind the end goal to profit in the internet trading world, you have to know how to deal with your Forex trading account available. Not at all like the expert traders, the tenderfoot traders in the monetary business bounce into the web based trading world without thinking about the market subtle elements and in this way they lose an immense measure of money. In this article, we will examine how to wind up noticeably an expert trader in the Forex trading world. On the off chance that you have a composed trading or venture design, congrats! You are in the minority. While it is still no undeniable certainty of achievement, you have disposed of one noteworthy barricade. On the off chance that your arrangement utilizes imperfect procedures or needs planning, your prosperity won’t come promptly, however at any rate you are in a position to diagram and adjust your course. By archiving the procedure, you realize what works and how to abstain from rehashing expensive slip-ups.

Acknowledging Direct Resources for Profit

In order to develop yourself as an expert Forex trader, you have to consider trading as your business. On the off chance that you take a gander at the expert traders in the money market then you will see that each and every one of them is trading the live resources in their Forex trading account with an extraordinary level. Much the same as the expert specialist the master in the monetary business likewise has a strong trading plan to trade the live resources in the market. A large portion of the fledgling traders in the budgetary market consider trading as a get rich speedy plan and at last, loses money in the internet trading world. So on the off chance that you genuinely need to wind up plainly an expert trader at that point ensure that you build up a trader’s attitude and consider trading as your business. Trading is a business, so you need to regard it in that capacity on the off chance that you need to succeed. Perusing a few books, purchasing an outlining program, opening an investment fund and beginning to trade is not a strategy for success – it is a formula for calamity. Once a trader knows where the market can possibly respite or invert, they should then figure out which one it will be and act as needs are. An arrangement ought to be composed of stone while you are trading, yet subject to re-assessment once the market has shut. It changes with economic situations and modifies as the trader’s aptitude level moves forward. Every trader ought to compose their own arrangement, considering individual trading styles and objectives. Utilizing another person’s arrangement does not mirror your trading qualities. Such a large amount of the reason numerous traders fall flat is that they never seek after trading the correct route, as an execution teach. They don’t have an organized procedure of learning. They don’t have the instruments to legitimately replay, audit, and right there trading. They don’t have guides to good example great trading rehearses. They don’t learn methodologies with genuine edges and rather trade arbitrary examples on outlines or features existing apart from everything else. They don’t have enough funding to survive their expectations to absorb information. They don’t discover the trading markets and styles that best fit their specific qualities.

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