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Book Review: Market Indicators

MARKETINDICATORS

Every one one us has limited bandwidth for analysis of data. We pick and choose a few ideas that seem to work for us, and then stick with them. That is often best, because good investors settle into investment methods that are consistent with their character. But every now and then it is good to open things up and try to see whether the investment methods can be improved.

For those that use market indicators, this is the sort of book that will make one say, “What if? What if I combine this market indicator with what I am doing now in my investing?” In most cases, the answer will be “Um, that doesn’t seem to fit.” But one good idea can pay for a book and then some. All investment strategies have weaknesses, but often the weaknesses of one method can be complemented by another. My favorite example is that as a value investor, I am almost always early. I buy and sell too soon, and leave profits on the table. Adding a momentum overlay can aid the value investor by delaying purchases of seemingly cheap stocks when the price is falling rapidly, and delaying sales of seemingly cheap stocks when the price is rising rapidly.

Looking outside your current circle of competence (more…)

Thoughts on Short Selling

  • Never short based on price action. A stock that is going straight up can continue at least until you are bankrupt before falling to the ground.
  • Never short based on valuation. A stock might be expensive at 100 times earnings and it will be even more expensive at 200 times earnings.
  • Unless you are hedging, your short positions should be 1/3 the size of your long positions.
  • Believe it or not, short stocks that have high short interest. In general, short squeezes are a myth and stocks that have high short interest are usually shorted for a reason.
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