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Risk, Reward and Uncertainty

“From an early age, we are all conditioned by our families, our schools, and virtually every other shaping force in our society to avoid risk. To take risks is inadvisable; to play it safe is the counsel we are accustomed both to receiving and to passing on. In the conventional wisdom, risk is asymmetrical: it has only one side, the bad side. In my experience—and all I presume to offer you today is observations drawn on my own experience, which is hardly the wisdom of the ages—in my experience, this conventional view of risk is shortsighted and often simply mistaken. My first observation is that successful people understand that risk, properly conceived, is often highly productive rather than something to avoid. They appreciate that risk is an advantage to be used rather than a pitfall to be skirted. Such people understand that taking calculated risks is quite different from being rash. This view of risk is not only unorthodox, it is paradoxical—the first of several paradoxes which I’m going to present to you today. This one might be encapsulated as follows: Playing it safe is dangerous. Far more often than you would realize, the real risk in life turns out to be the refusal to take a risk.”

Life is fraught with risk. There is no getting away from it. However we try to control the direction of our lives, there are times when we fail. Therefore, we might as well accept that life is a game of chance. If life is a game of chance, to one degree or another, we must be comfortable with assessing odds in the face of risk.

Four Basic Points on Technical Analysis

The true trader, the consistent winner, is not concerned with any price or where prices started from.  He or she is concerned with what it takes for people to believe strong enough, and with enough commitment, that they will place their capital at risk.”  So, with that in mind, the four basics:

1.  A price chart is simply “a pictorial representation of the sum total of all the market’s belief structures.”  No matter what we believe the chart does not lie.

2.  “Because every potential trader in every market is seeing it differently, every printed price will mean something different to everyone.” Our entry may be someone else’s opportunity to exit and vice versa.  We should always remember this the next time we believe we have a sure thing.

3.  Prices eventually have to stop their forward progress, in either direction.  “When every potential trader has executed for an entry, in any time frame, the market is vulnerable. When no one is doing anything, and what’s been done is done, prices must stop.” 

4.  No matter what indicator we use “every technical indicator designed is based solely on combining or dividing prices in some way.”  Volume and open interest, however, “chronicles the true state of what is happening inside the minds of the market participants.” 

Vigilance

Vigilance is the non-stop guarding and protecting of important things. In trading there is nothing more important than money. The Professional Trader takes his money very seriously and has given it a more serious term: “Capital”. Capital is everything to the winning trader. It is not just the end goal, it is the means and the source before, during and after the trades. The Professional Trader guards his capital very closely because it will allow him to trade today, tomorrow, next week, next month and next year and beyond. If capital is not protected at all times, then the entire effort for the year can be gone and future opportunities are severely limited. Vigilance in trading means holding the protection of your money, your capital as your constant highest priority. Properly protecting your capital includes starting with enough to trade wisely and be able to stay in the game when the inevitable downturns and losing streaks occur. (more…)

Traders need 3 Keys

#1 Trading is not about winning percentage, being right all the time, or predicting the future. What it is about is having bigger winners than losers. If you are profitable after each long string of trades then you are a winning trader in that time frame. You can make money through winning percentage as long as you keep losers small and you can make money through huge wins even with lots of losses. The key is not how many times you are right but the size of your winners versus your losers. That is the magic elixir of profitability.

#2 Trading is first and foremost about surviving, the vast majority of traders not only don’t make money but they lose most of their trading capital. The only way to have a long profitable trading career is to manage risk and survive a string of losses. If your trading losses are more than 1% to 2% of total trading capital per  losing trade you are in danger of blowing up your account with a string of losing trades or one big loss. To make the journey from new trader to successful trader you have to survive losing streaks and completely unexpected market action. Trading and betting big will eventually take you out of the game, it is only a question of when.

#3 Trading is one of the roughest things a person can do mentally and emotionally. Even if you win in the markets you have to keep up a large amount of personal human capital in perseverance, passion, dedication, focus, and faith in self and system. If you are missing one of these six psychological elements the odds will be against you. You have to cultivate your goals and drive into a vision of success that you are willing to pursue until you get it and pay the price as you go to have the prize you seek.

11 Common Errors

1. Placing a limit order in and then leaving the screen and not canceling the limit when you wouldn’t want it to be filled later or some news might come out and get you elected when the real prices is a fortune worse for you
2. Not getting up or being in front of screen at the time when you’re supposed to trade.
3. Taking a phone call from an agitating personage, be it romantic or the service or whatever that gets you so discombobulated that you go on tilt.
4. Talking to people during the trading day when you need to watch the ticks to put your order in.
5. Not having in front of you what the market did on the corresponding day of the week or month or hour so that you’re trading for a repeat of some hopeful exuberant event which never happens twice when you want it to happen.
6. Any thoughts or actual romance during the trading day. It will make you too enervated or too ready to pull the trigger depending on what the outcome was. (more…)

Win or Lose -It's Upto You

If you want to win then you must create your own trading plan and follow it, if you want to lose just trade whatever you want whenever you want based on your own opinion.

If you want to win then you must control your risk carefully with only 1% or 2% of your capital at stake in every individual trade, if you want to lose then just trade huge position sizes, put all your chips on the table.

If you want to win plan your entries and exits before you enter a trade then follow them, if you want to lose ask for everyone’s opinion and just make decisions based on other people.

If you want to win cut your losses short and let your winners run, if you want to lose hold your losers and hope that they come back and sell your winners quickly to lock in gains.

If you want to win trade only the best high quality stocks in the market, if you want to lose trade the junk and hope for a miracle come back.

If you want to win then build complete confidence for your system through chart studies and back testing, if you want to lose trade with no idea of if what you are doing even works.

If you want to win go with the current trend of the market, if you want to lose fight the trend and trade against it.

If you want to win then go long the hottest stocks in a bull market, if you want to lose short the hottest stocks in a bull market.

Do what makes money not what you feel like doing.

Financial Suicide

“Most good traders would agree that risking less than 1% of equity in a trade (where 1% is the amount you lose if your stop loss was hit) is a prudent risk. Risking between 1 and 3% gets into the gunslinging range. Risking any more than 3% is usually financial suicide, and the average trader commits financial suicide all the time without knowing it”

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