Archives of “risk reward” tag

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Traders: When to be Flexible & when to be Rigid

  
  Education
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  1. raders should have a very flexible mindset about which way a trade can go when they enter it, but be very rigid about taking their stop loss when it is hit.
  2. Traders should be very flexible on profit expectations during each market cycle but very rigid about following their robust method during each cycle.
  3. Traders must be very flexible about allowing a winner to run but very rigid on cutting losses short.
  4. Traders must be flexible about their opinions and change them when proven wrong but they must be rigid about their risk management and never risk more than planned.
  5. Traders should be flexible about their watch list but rigid about their trading plan.
  6. Traders should be flexible about what will happen next in the market but rigid about their rules.
  7. Traders should be flexible about the direction of the trend when it changes but rigid about positions sizing.
  8. Traders should be flexible about profit targets but rigid about entering with a minimum risk/reward plan.
  9. Trades should be flexible about entries and exits as the market action develops but rigid about managing the risk of ruin at all times.
  10. Traders should be flexible about expectations on when they will have a huge winning streak that will change their financial lives but rigidly pursue success in the markets until it does happen.

Advantages of Technical Analysis

  
  Education
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  • Technical analysis is a bit of a misnomer since it is really not that technical. A better name for the use of charts to make investment decisions might be risk/reward analysis or even market psychology. Sure, there are some complex mathematical concepts involved with some of its more esoteric indicators. But at its core, technical analysis is simply a method of determining if a stock or the market as a whole is worth buying or selling. Once we identify this we are way ahead of the game with regard to assembling a winning portfolio.
  • Simply stated, technical analysis is the study of data generated from the market and from the actions of people in the market. Such data includes price levels that have served as turning points in the past, the amounts of stock being bought and sold each day (volume), and the rate of change of price movements (momentum) over a given span of time. (more…)

Swope and Howell, Trading by Numbers

  
  Education
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The title of this book by Rick Swope and W. Shawn Howell is somewhat misleading. It’s not intuitively obvious, or at least it wasn’t to me, that Trading by Numbers: Scoring Strategies for Every Market (Wiley, 2012) is primarily about options.

But let’s start, as the authors do, with their trend and volatility scoring methods. The trend score has four components: market sentiment (the relationship between a long-term moving average and a short-term moving average and the position of price in relation to each moving average), stock sentiment (the same parameters as market sentiment), single candle structure (body length relative to closing price), and volume (OBV trend). The range is -10 to +10. Volatility scoring has three legs: historical market volatility, historical stock volatility, and expected market volatility. The range is 0 to +10.

Before moving on to the standard option strategies, the authors address risk management, which they wisely describe as nonnegotiable. Risk management again has three legs: risk/reward, concentration check, and position sizing. 

And, with chapter five (of sixteen), we’ve reached covered calls. The reader who has no experience with options will be lost. Even though the authors push all the right buttons (ITM, ATM, OTM strategies; the Greeks; position adjustments), they push the buttons almost as if they were playing a video game. Very fast.

Assuming that the reader is not new to the option market, what can he/she learn from this book? Let’s look very briefly at three strategies and see how they reflect three different market or individual stock conditions: a long call, a straddle/strangle, and an iron condor. Traditionally described, in the simplest of terms, the first is looking for a significant bullish directional move, the second anticipates a surge in volatility, and the third expects a rangebound market. (more…)

Risk and Reward

  
  Education
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Before placing any trade, a strategic trader must always know and identify the maximum risk exposure for the trade. Once the risk is identified, it should be compared to the possible profit target. If the profit target does not justify the risk exposure, the trade should not be taken. It does not make any sense to risk a dollar to earn a penny. One of the common mistakes that cause traders to consistently lose money is that they fail to let their winners run. They quickly close out their trades as soon as they become profitable. While no one can argue against taking a profit, consistently taking profits that are not consistent with the desired risk/reward ratio ultimately leads to a net loss. Once a stop is hit, it immediately eradicates the small profits of three or four trades that were prematurely closed. It is hard to leave your money on the table, but there are ways to move up your stops and use a trailing stop to allow you to stay in your trades to realize your designated target.

Once a trade is placed, prices will always fluctuate; that’s the nature of the auction process. Rarely will a trade directly navigate to the profit target without a retrace. This is where paper trading comes into play. It allows a trader to watch, learn, and record how long it takes to reach a profit target and whether the risk/reward strategy that they are using is in fact feasible and workable.

10 Secrets of Trading

  
  Education
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A ROBUST METHOD: Much like a casino you must have an edge in your trading. Your system must be a robust one with the odds on your side either through many more wins than losses with equal capital at risk or small losses and big wins over a long period of time.

CONFIDENCE: You must have the confidence in your method that it is a winner in the long term through proper research or back testing. You also must have confidence in yourself to execute the plan.

DISCIPLINE: A trader must have the discipline to take their predetermined entries and exits. The trader is the weakest link in trading no method works with out the discipline to execute it in a live market.

TRADING PLAN: A trader has to have a plan on what they will trade, how much they will trade, the time frame they are trading on and rules that they will follow for entries and exits.

EMOTIONAL CONTROL: The winning trader must have the ability to not make decisions based on emotions. Winning traders still feel emotions but have the ability to stay on their trading plan instead of making decisions based on fear or greed in the heat of market action.

RISK/REWARD: The best trades to take have the potential to win $3 for each $1  risked. With this ratio a trader can lose on two trades our of three and still make money. This is a defined edge and keeps the trader looking for only the best instruments to trade and taking the best entry points as part of their system.

EGO CONTROL: The destruction of many traders is when they believe they do not need risk management or rules and that they are smarter than the market and begin taking trades based purely on their opinions instead of principles, price action, and chart action. Good traders are humble traders.

RISK OF RUIN: The best traders understand the best way to ensure their survival in trading is with only putting 1% of their total trading capital at risk in any one trade either through great entries with tight stop losses or trading smaller position sizes. Nothing will determine a trader’s success more than their ability to survive a string of 10-15 losses in a row.

MASTER YOUR OWN METHOD: Trader know thyself, know who you are, the trading method that fits your personality and risk tolerance and become a master of that method. Do not wander around when it gets tough, be faithful to your edge. Be the best that you can be at what you are whether you are a day trader, trend follower, option trader, momentum trader, chart reader, technical analyst, or fundamentalist. I know of traders that got reach with any of these methods but do not know any that got rich trading multiple methods.  Pick one, master one.

PERSEVERANCE: Even with all the elements in place there will be rough months and even rough years for almost all traders. Sometimes right at the beginning of a new traders first plunge into the market the price action can act completely contrary to profits for that traders method. All the traders that ended up rich have one thing in common, they did not quit trading until they became rich.


Eyes Wide Shut

  
  Education
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Why does it take so long for a trader to learn?

eyes wide shut

Like I’ve said before, I’ve seen as much so-called wisdom over the years that I’ve eventually learned to hold as inviolate truth, as that which should be thrown out with yesterday’s garbage. Yet why does the eventual accumulation of pertinent knowledge translate so slowly into one’s trading results? If we are capable of weeding out the good stuff from the bad, why doesn’t the good stuff just take over and guide us directly towards success?

Aside from the fact that I might just be a dumbass, one thing I’ve figured out is that the distance between the brain and the finger might not be so close as you’d think — if you’re not careful. I know I’m not the only trader who has a tendency to repeat the usual mistakes, or variations of same, despite having berated myself 10 times in the previous week to make an effort not to do it again. My contention is that old habits die hard. Real hard. And only if you go out of your way to kill them outright. (more…)

You are Accountable

  
  Education
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Traders like to think that they only need to be accountable to themselves in order to get the best out of their trading. But it has been my experience that most traders fail miserably at this task.  So why are traders not able to do this?

They do not want to:

  • Be wrong
  • Admit that they are changing their rules
  • Face up to the fact that they do not have good rules
  • Realize that they need psychological help
  • Realize that they do not have what it takes

If you are committed to doing whatever it takes to follow your rules to reach a higher level of profit, you should consider asking someone to help you with this task if you are not doing a good job of it yourself.

Who could take on the role of a trader’s accountability?

  • A significant other
  • A friend
  • A trading buddy
  • A teacher
  • A coach

What would a person need to help you be more accountable?

  • A clearly defined set of rules from you
  • Your commitment to telling the truth to them
  • An accounting of the trades you took
  • Why you think the trades you took were good opportunities
  • The risk/reward ratios before the trade
  • The money management procedure you followed
  • Whether or not you followed your rules
  • The lessons you learned
  • And at the four month periodical review, the changes you would make and why

Reward or punishment

There should be a clearly defined predetermined punishment or reward that both of you agree upon for not following your rules.  Here are some examples of punishments or rewards to consider.

Punishment

  • No trading the rest of the day
  • Walk around the block before taking the next trade
  • Twenty push ups
  • Limit the size of your trades for the rest of the week

Rewards (more…)

10 Rules for Traders

  
  Education
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  1. Always wait for the setup: no setup – no trade.     Agree. If your strategy doesn’t provide you a good risk/reward trade to make, then your job is to be patient until it does. Ironically, this often requires you to sit out some very good moves in the market and be inactive at the very same times you want to be aggressive.

  2. The best trades work almost right away. Agree, but with one important caveat – this rule greatly depends upon your strategy. Some strategies will require greater patience than others. If trading short-term, this rule is almost always correct, but if your time frames are longer, then you also have time on your side which requires more patience but that patience can pay off if your analysis is correct.
  3. Never take a big loss. If it doesn’t ‘feel’ right. Remove it!Disagree. Sometimes you have to take a big loss to prevent the risk of an even greater loss. Refusing to take a big loss when a mistake has been made can be very costly. I also disagree with the view that “If it doesn’t feel right, remove it.” Actually, some of the best trades you will ever make in your career are those trades that feel wrong and about as far from “right” as you can make it. Don’t believe me? Think over the last month or so about the trades you missed because they didn’t feel right but your strategy told you to hold or buy them anyway! It is also interesting to me that this rule says to trade by feel and at the same time advises in another rule not to trade by emotion. You can’t do one without the other!
  4. Always perfect your craft and sharpen your skills – good traders are constantly learning. Agree. No matter how skilled, intelligent, and successful you have been, there is always room for improvement. Moreover, because of the ever-growing changing nature of the market, what you do now to trade successfully won’t always work in every situation and the next market environment. Only experience and constant dedication to your job will provide you with the weapons for enduring market success. (more…)

Applying Sun Tzu's Art of War to Trading

  
  Education
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Sun Tzu’s Art of War is a classic piece of work that is widely read and applied to many fields, due to it’s fundamental nature that is highly adaptable to many areas of our lives. In this post, I extracted parts of the work and applied to trading and in doing so, hope to introduce the important trading concepts to you. I have also group and categorize them for easy understanding.

To put it in the context of trading, I have rationalised the following terms:
– General = You, the trader
– Battle = Trading the market/making a trade
– Men, Soldiers = Your capital, dollars!

ON WINNING IN THE MARKET

“Now the general who wins a battle makes many calculations in his temple ere the battle is fought. The general who loses a battle makes but few calculations beforehand. Thus do many calculations lead to victory, and few calculations to defeat: how much more no calculation at all! It is by attention to this point that I can foresee who is likely to win or lose.”

Calculations are to be made prior to any trade. What is the risk-reward ratio? What is the stop loss level and the amount that I am willing to lose? What is the size of position to take? How much leverage can I take? If the price moves to $XXX, what action should I take? What is my price objective? What is the proabability of winning? These are just questions that need to be answered and determined BEFORE a trade is made. THE BATTLE/TRADE IS WON BEFORE IT IS FOUGHT/MADE.

“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat.
If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.” (more…)

1930-The Gartley Pattern -For Traders

  
  Education
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A leading technical analyst of the 1930s created a method for trading that is still applicable today. Learn how to trade market turning points based on Fibonacci retracements and market psychology with the Gartley Pattern.

Many traders ask how a trading method that is 77 years old is applicable today. When you combine timeless tools like Fibonacci Retracements with great risk: reward ratios, it’s easy to see why this method is so popular. If those aspects of a trading method appeal to you, it’s my pleasure to introduce you to the Gartley chart pattern.

What is the Gartley Pattern?

The Gartley pattern is a powerful and multi-rule based trade set-up that takes advantage of exhaustion in the market and provides great risk: reward ratios. The pattern is also known as the “Gartley 222” because the pattern originated from page 222 of H.M. Gartley’s book, Profits in the Stock Market that was published in 1935 and reportedly sold for $1,500 at the time.

The Gartley pattern is based on major turning points or fractals in the market. This pattern plays on trend reversal exhaustion and can be applied to the time frame of your choosing. The other key that makes this pattern unique are the crucial Fibonacci retracements that come together to fulfill the plan.

There is a bullish / long / buying pattern and an equally powerful bearish / short / selling pattern. Much like you would find with a head and shoulders pattern you buy or sell based on the fulfillment of the set up.

Buy & Sell Gartley Chart Pattern (more…)

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