1) The amount of time spent on their trading outside of trading hours (preparation, reading, etc.);
2) Dedicated periods to reviewing trading performance and making adjustments to shifting market conditions;
3) The ability to stop trading when not trading well to institute reviews and when conviction is lacking;
4) The ability to become more aggressive and risk taking when trading well and with conviction;
5) A keen awareness of risk management in the sizing of positions and in daily, weekly, and monthly loss limits, as well as loss limits per position;
6) Ongoing ability to learn new skills, markets, and strategies;
7) Distinctive ways of viewing and following markets that leverage their skills;
8) Persistence and emotional resilience: the ability to keep going in the face of setback;
9) Competitiveness: a relentless drive for self-improvement;
10) Balance: sources of well-being outside of trading that help sustain energy and focus.
Archives of “risk management” tag
rssTop Ten Trades of All Time
What were the greatest trades of all time? Who made them? Here is a list of the who, what, when, where, and how of the greatest trades that were ever made.
While the risk management while executing many of these trades is not what many traders would want, we can see many of these as trend trades and the dangers of fighting the trends. These trades were not all entered into at one time, most of them were built slowly and grew by adding as profits accrued. Livermore made many probing shorts that he had to stop out as the bull market reversed off support and continued upwards. Some of these traders had the sell button ready in case a reversal knocked them out. Some could have been ruined with a little blind sided government intervention that modern day traders are faced with now. But you can not argue with the profits and many of these traders have very long proven records, these were not random trades and they did not just get lucky, most of these were the great play that they landed after decades of research, study, and trading.
1. John Paulson’s bet against subprime mortgages made his hedge fund a cool $15 billion in 2007, that is billion with a ‘B’. he is only one of a very exclusive club that was able to make this call and win with it. That was a call of a lifetime that everyone was blind to even deep into the crises.
2. Jesse Livermore’s call on the Crash of 1929, Jesse Livermore did not need any computer models, technical indicators, or derivatives to make $100 million dollars ($1.2 billion in today’s dollars) for his own personal account during a time where everyone was bullish and then everyone lost through shirts. It is an amazing day when you come home and your wife thinks you are ruined and you had the second best trading day of anyone in history.
3. John Templeton’s invested heavily into Japan during the 1960s, when Japan was beginning its three-decade long economic miracle, Templeton was one of the country’s first outside investors. At one point, he boldly put more than 60 percent of his fund in Japanese assets.
From its foundation in 1954, his Templeton Growth Fund grew at an astonishing rate of nearly 16 per cent a year until Templeton’s retirement in 1992, making it the top performing growth fund in the second half of the 20th century.
A $100,000 stake invested in 1954, with distributions reinvested, would have grown to $55 million in 1999.
4. George Soros’ breaking of the bank of England by shorting 10 billion worth of pound sterling and forcing the U.K. to withdraw from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM). Soros made $1 billion in the process, which was an unimaginable sum back then. (more…)
10 Points For Successful Trading
Trading Methodology:
- Winning system-Only trade tested systems with a positive expectancy in the long term.
- Faith– Your system has to allow you to trade your beliefs about the market.
- Risk/Reward-Never trade unless your profit expectations are greater than your capital at risk.
Trader Psychology:
- Discipline-You have to keep trading your method even when it doesn’t work for a given time period.
- Ego-Admit when you are wrong.
- Emotions-Trade the math not your emotions.
Risk Management:
- Risk of Ruin-Never risk more than 1% of your total account capital on any one trade.
- Position Sizing-Use your capital at risk to understand the right amount to trade based on the securities volatility.
- Capital at risk: Never put more than 6% of your total capital at risk at any given time on all positions.
- Trailing stops- Always have an exit strategy to lock in your winners.
Discipline-Risk Managment-Passion for Traders
- DISCIPLINE: The trader must have the ability to control themselves and follow a plan. Discipline is a required skill in trading without it there is no edge, you are either a gambler or simply trading off fear and greed. You will not be successful, instead you will be gamed by those in control of their emotions.
- RISK MANAGEMENT: Risk management must be a top skill for a trader to even survive in the markets. You must structure your risk per trade to be no more than risking 1% or 2% of your trading capital. You have to be able to survive 10 losses in a row. These strings of losses come around more often than a new trader would suspect. If you lose just 5% of your trading capital in each of ten trades you will be down almost 50% and need a 100% return just to get back to even. At this point you are ruined.
- PASSION: A trader must love to trade, without a passion for the markets and trading the new trader will not survive the learning process because anyone with common sense would believe that it was not worth the struggle. Passion will be needed to bring a trader through the learning curve and later the losing streak.
Take A Punch
“Everyone has a plan ’til they get punched in the mouth.”
That’s one of the central challenges of trading. We set out with plans, then we get punched in the mouth with adverse movement.
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One way to think of risk management is as a framework that allows you to be aggressive enough to occasionally get hit in the mouth, but not so wild that you’ll get knocked out. Learning how to take a punch is key to boxing success, and it’s also an important trading skill.
“Everyone has a plan ’til they get punched in the mouth.”Stop It
There’s an old joke about the investor who never used any stop losses. His friend knew his big positions were getting crushed.
Out of concern, the friend asked, “How are you sleeping?”
“Like a baby” he answered.
“Really? You aren’t nervous or upset?”
“I sleep like a baby” he repeated.
“That’s amazing. I’d never be able to sleep through the night with those types of losses.”
“Who said anything about sleeping through the night? I said I slept like a baby: I wake up every two hours, wet myself and cry for 30 minutes before falling back to sleep.”
That’s why risk management is so critical: to save you from sleeping like a baby, and in the long run to save you a lot of money.
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There’s a reason flight attendants show you where the emergency exits are before takeoff. The same thinking should apply to investors. Prudent investors have a sell strategy in place beforethey get involved with a stock. Using any of these stop strategies helps keep your emotions out of the process when an investing emergency arises.
10 Signs You Might still be a New Trader
New Traders do not understand what all the fuss is about risk management and trader psychology they do not need all that they are special.
- New Traders believe there is some magic trading method that always wins, they search for the Holy Grail of trading.
- New Traders do not understand that the very best traders have strings of losses , losing months, and sometimes even losing years. They think rich traders always win.
- New Traders want to know what is going up or down, they focus on tips instead of the mechanics of trading.
- New Traders hand out advice freely to others, good traders realize that decisions are based on individual methods and do not give out tips.
- New Traders are looking for that one big winning trade to go all in on, good traders are trading good systems that they risk 1% per trade on.
- New Traders confuse bull markets for skill.
- New Traders confuse luck for skill.
- New Traders want advice, good traders want robust systems.
- New Traders run from method to method and from mentor to mentor after every losing streak, good traders know exactly who they are and what methods they trade.
Trading Wisdom
Often I think we overcomplicate trading. All this talk of risk management, money management, entries, exits etc ad nauseum can leave us not being able to see the wood for the trees.
It’s obvious that you need to cut your losses. If you let them run or get out of control your aren’t going to be in the business for long.
But there is another very good and often forgotten reason why you should not let your losses run that William O’Neill highlights:
O’Neill “letting your losses run is the most serious mistake made by almost all investors” simply because “if you don’t sell to cut your losses when you get into trouble, you can easily lose the confidence you’ll need to make buy and sell decisions in the future.”
But if you learn to do this then you stand some chance of doing this:
“Take your losses quickly and your profits slowly” because “your objective is not just to be right but to make big money when you are right.”
The first quote is another great one to heed. If we do and combine it with the second well…… we might just be able to make the big money once in a while.
A Few Notes From Adam Grimes
Adam Grimes (Chief Investment Officer of Waverly Advisors) prefaces his 2012 book, The Art and Science of Technical Analysis: Market Structure, Price Action, and Trading Strategies, by stating: “This book…offers a comprehensive approach to the problems of technically motivated, directional trading. …Trading is hard. Markets are extremely competitive. They are usually very close to efficient and most observed price movements are random. It is therefore exceedingly difficult to derive a method that makes superior risk-adjusted returns, and it is even more difficult to successfully apply such a method in actual practice. Last, it is essential to have a verifiable edge in the markets–otherwise no consistent profits are possible. This approach sets this work apart from the majority of trading books published, which suggest that simple patterns and proper psychology can lead a trader to impressive profits. Perhaps this is possible, but I have never seen it work in actual practice. …The self-directed trader will find many sections specifically addressed to the struggles he or she faces, and to the errors he or she is likely to make along the way. …[Institutional] traders will also find new perspectives on risk management, position sizing, and pattern analysis that may be able to inform their work in different areas.” Using example charts for many assets from different times over different time frames and from different markets, he concludes that:
From Chapter 1, “The Trader’s Edge” (Page 7): “Every edge we have, as technical traders, comes from an imbalance of buying and selling pressure. …we do not trade patterns in the market–we trade the underlying imbalances that create those patterns.”
From Chapter 2, “The Market Cycle and the Four Trades” (Page 45): “When buying pressure seems to be strongest, the end of the uptrend is often near. When the sellers seem to be decisively winning the battle, the stage is set for a reversal into an uptrend. This is why it is so important for traders to learn to stand apart from the crowd, and the only way to do this is to understand the actions and emotions of that market crowd.”
From Chapter 3, “On Trends” (Page 95): “…many outstanding trades come in trending environments. Market structure in trends is often driven by a strong imbalance of buying and selling pressure, it is often easy to define risk points for trades, and some of the cleanest, easiest trades come from trends. However, markets do not always trend.” (more…)
17 Points from William J. O’Neil
William O’Neil is likely one of the greatest traders of our time based on many things. O’Neil made a huge amount of money while he was only in his twenties, enough to buy a seat on the New York Stock Exchange. He runs an amazingly successful investment advisory company to big money firms. He is also the creator of the CAN SLIM investment strategy which the American Association of Individual Investors named the top performing investment strategy from 1998 to 2009. This non-profit organization tracked more than 50 different investing methods, over a 12 year time period. CANSLIM showed a total gain of 2,763% over the 12 years. The CAN SLIM method is explained in O’Neil’s book “How to Make Money in Stocks”
Those closest to O’Neil that have seen his private trading returns say that they are greater tna Warren Buffett of George Soros over the same period of time. Here are some of the best things that he is quoted as having said.
RISK MANAGEMENT
- I make it a rule to never lose more than 7 percent on any stock I buy. If a stock drops 7 percent below my purchase price, I will automatically sell it at the market – no second-guessing, no hesitation.
- Some people say, “I can’t sell that stock because I’d be taking a loss.” If the stock is below the price you paid for it, selling doesn’t give you a loss; you already have it.
- Letting losses run is the most serious mistake made by most investors.
- The whole secret to winning in the stock market is to lose the least amount possible when you’re not right.
METHOD
- 90% of the people in the stock market, professionals and amateurs alike, simply haven’t done enough homework.
- The first step in learning to pick big stock market winners is for you to examine leading big winners of the past to learn all the characteristics of the most successful stocks. You will learn from this observation what type of price patterns these stocks developed just before their spectacular price advances. (more…)