Placing a trade with a predetermined stop-loss point can be compared to placing a bet: the more money risked, the larger the bet. Conservative betting produces conservative performance, while bold betting leads to spectacular ruin. A bold trader placing large bets feels pressure or heat from the volatility of the portfolio. A hot portfolio keeps more at risk than does a cold one. Portfolio heat seems to be associated with personality preference; bold traders prefer and are able to take more heat, while more conservative traders generally avoid the circumstances that give rise to heat. In portfolio management, we call the distributed bet size the heat of the portfolio. A diversified portfolio risking 2% on each of five instrument & has a total heat of 10%, as does a portfolio risking 5% on each of two instruments. Our studies of heat show several factors, which are: Trading systems have an inherent optimal heat. Setting the heat level is far and away more important than fiddling with trade timing parameters. Many traders are unaware of both these factors. COIN FLIPPING One way to understand portfolio heat is to imagine a series of coin flips. Heads, you win two; tails, you lose one is a fair model of good trading. The heat question is: what fixed fraction of your running total stake should you bet on a series of flips?
Archives of “risk and return” tag
rssMcMillan et al., Investments
Investments: Principles of Portfolio and Equity Analysis, coedited by Michael G. McMillan, Jerald E. Pinto, Wendy L. Pirie, and Gerhard Van de Venter (Wiley, 2011), was written for financial analysts as well as aspiring financial analysts. Part of the CFA Institute’s book series, it is a weighty tome of more than 600 pages. In twelve chapters it covers such topics as market organization and structure, security market indices, market efficiency, portfolio management, portfolio risk and return, portfolio planning and construction, equity securities, industry and company analysis, equity valuation, equity market valuation, and technical analysis. There is also a separate paperback workbook with problems and solutions.
I debated what to focus on in this post and finally decided to look at two methods for valuing equity markets. The assumption is that, whatever the short-term effects of momentum, “economic fundamentals will ultimately dictate secular equity market price trends.” (p. 470) (For those who read yesterday’s post, this assumption is in sync with the theory of Frydman and Goldberg.)
First is the neoclassical approach to growth accounting, which uses the Cobb-Douglas production function to “measure the contribution of different factors—usually broadly defined as capital and labor—to economic growth and, indirectly, to compute the rate of an economy’s technological progress.” In imprecise and non-mathematical terms, the percentage growth in real output (or GDP) can be decomposed into its components: growth in total factor productivity (a measure of the level of technology), growth in the capital stock, and growth in the labor output. Applying this model to the Chinese economy, the authors of the chapter suggest that Chinese economic growth will eventually moderate; nonetheless, they project a near-term growth rate of 9.25%. They arrive at this by adding total factor productivity of 2.5%, a growth in capital stock of 12% times a value of 0.5 for the output elasticity of capital—that is, 6%, and a labor force growth of 1.5% times a value of 0.5 for the output elasticity of labor—or 0.75%. An ultimately sustainable growth rate might be 4.25% [1.25% + (0.5 x 6%) + (0.5 X 0%)]. (more…)
The Stock Market Is An "Attractive Nuisance" And Should Be Closed
Submitted by Charles Hugh Smith from Of Two Minds
The Stock Market Is An “Attractive Nuisance” And Should Be Closed
The dark pool of parasitic scum known as the stock market is an “attractive nuisance” that should be shut down.
In tort law, an attractive nuisance is any potentially hazardous object or condition that is likely to attract the naive and unwary, i.e. children.
A classic example is an abandoned swimming pool half-filled with fetid water.
Since many stock market investors are demonstrably naive about the risks and unwary of the dangers posed by the stock market (the proof of this is that they remain invested in the market), it is but a slight extrapolation of the attractive nuisance doctrine to declare the stock market is clearly an “attractive nuisance” and should be closed immediately.
Is this really a legal stretch? Consider the conditions that characterize an attractive nuisance. I have edited these to pertain to the stock market and investors:
1. The market is one in which the Powers That Be (the exchanges, the Central State, the central bank, et al., the effective “owners” of the stock market) know or have reason to know that brainwashed or ill-informed investors are likely to risk their money in.
2. The market is one of which the Powers That Be know or have reason to know (and fully realize or should realize) will involve an unreasonable risk of financial loss or ruin to such investors.
3. The investors, because of their consumption of officially sanctioned propaganda and misrepresentation of market risk and return, do not discover or realize the risk involved in placing money in the stock market. (more…)