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Trading: The Difference Between Playing Offense & Defense

  
  Education
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The sooner traders learn to carefully manage risk the better off they will be. So many new traders come in with only the thoughts of profits dancing in their heads. This is equivalent to a football team only focusing on scoring points and not planning their defense.In trading you must play both sides of the ball. You have to be able to score points against the market and not allow the market to score back those points on you.

Your entries are your offense and your exits are your defense.

Letting a winner run is your offense, cutting your loser short is your defense.

Your automatic buy stop is your offense and your automatic stop loss is your defense.

Buying a monster stock is an offensive move, planning on how you will exit with your profits is your defensive move.

Identifying a trend is your offensive play creating a trading plan on how to trade it is your defensive play.

Your choice on what to trade is playing offense, choosing your position size is playing defense. (more…)

Ten Reasons – Trading Long Option Strangles

  
  Education
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A long strangle is long one call at a higher strike and long one put at a lower strike in the same expiration and on the same stock. Such a position makes money if the stock price moves up or down well past the strike prices of the strangle. There are higher costs and risks with these strategies, as I discuss below. 

 Strangles are low risk plays, one side of the options will go up in value when the other side goes down in value the majority of the time.

  1. If one side becomes worthless it generally means the other side is worth a lot.
  2. You can make money on strangles even when you do not know which way the market will move.
  3. It is much less stressful to hold a position with a hedge in place.
  4. The big risks are transferred from the option buyer to the option seller in this play.
  5. Strangles lose small  with small movements but win big when there is a big move. The are asymmetrical in their construction.
  6. When one side of the option sellers blow up their account due to an outsized move you will be on the other side of them and be the trader their capital flows to.
  7. Strangles can be played on any time frame.
  8. With the strangles the winning side has a growing delta and the losing side has a shrinking delta.
  9. Strangles can be used to capture trends, volatility, and reversals.

Where is the risk? (more…)

Teaching Math

  
Education, Humour
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Teaching Math in 1950: A logger sells a truckload of lumber for $100. His cost of production is 4/5 of the price. What is his profit?
Teaching Math in 1960: A logger sells a truckload of lumber for $100. His cost of production is 4/5 of the price, or $80. What is his profit?
Teaching Math in 1970: A logger exchanges a set “L” of lumber for a set “M” of money. The cardinality of set “M” is 100. Each element is worth one dollar. Make 100 dots representing the elements of the set “M.” The set “C,” the cost of production contains 20 fewer points than set “M.” Represent the set “C” as subset of set “M” and answer the following question: What is the cardinality of the set “P” of profits?
Teaching Math in 1980: A logger sells a truckload of lumber for $100. His cost of production is $80 and his profit is $20. Your assignment: Underline the number 20.
Teaching Math in 1990:  By cutting down beautiful forest trees, an unenlightened logger makes $20. What do you think of this way of making a living? Topic for class participation after answering the question: How did the forest birds and squirrels “feel” as the logger cut down the trees? There are no wrong answers.
Teaching Math in 2002: A logger sells a truckload of lumber for $100. His cost of production is $120. How does Arthur Andersen determine that his profit margin is $60?
Teaching Math in 2010: A logger sells a truckload of lumber for $100. His cost of production is $120. The federal government bails out his firm. How much is his bonus?

On Losses (and Profits).

  
  Education
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  • ‘Tradings only real secret is… The best loser is the long-term winner’ – Phantom
  • “Trading is a losing game, the best loser is the long-term winner” – Anonymous.
  • ‘Losses can either be lost money, or tuition in the school of trading’ – Courtesy of Mark Moskowitz.
  • ‘The worst advice I use to get was. – ‘No one went broke taking a profit’’. – Courtesy of John Berra.
  • “It seems that the necessary thing to do is not to fear mistakes, to plunge in, to do the best that one can, hoping to learn enough from blunders to correct them eventually.” – Abraham Maslow
  • ‘“Learn to like your losses”. Why? Because they are small!’ – Courtesy of Stuart A.Brown.
  • “One common adage…that is completely wrongheaded is: You can’t go broke taking profits. That’s precisely how many traders do go broke. While amateurs go broke by taking large losses, professionals go broke by taking small profits.” – William Eckhardt.
  • “Its not about being right or wrong, rather, its about how much money you make when you’re right and how much you don’t lose when you’re wrong.” – George Soros.
  • “The first loss is the best loss.” – Jim Rogers.
  • “Losers average Losers”…Paul Tudor Jones.
  • “You learn nothing from your winners and everything from your losers.” – Courtesy of Jeff Horn.
  • ·“To become a Master Trader, you must first be a successful loser.” – Jeff Horn.

The Best Time for A Trade is When Everyone Else Disagrees

  
  Education
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If you think about it, it makes sense – the very best time to buy something is when everyone is convinced that the price is going to fall lower, and the very best time to sell something is when everyone is convinced the price is going to shoot to the moon. Just learn  the importance of trading against the crowd. The crowd is reacting to the market, and you learn to  react to the crowd, this simple change in mindset can produce incredible profits if you are willing to look like a fool (in the eyes of others).

Seven Insights for Disciplined Trading

  
  Education
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I’ve always been a fan of Mark Douglas’ work, as my copy of his initial book on trading psychology, The Disciplined Trader, is thoroughly marked up thanks to Douglas’ many innovative ideas about mastering the internal challenges we all face with trading.  His newest book, Trading in the Zone, is full of more great insights. I recently finished reading his excellent follow-up work, and it sparked my review of key points I take out of Douglas’ ground-breaking insights:

1) Develop consistency.  Douglas focuses on how we can create a mindset of consistency by developing beliefs which support us in obtaining this result.  In order to develop consistency, Douglas emphasizes beliefs such as objectively identifying your edges, defining the risk in each trade in advance, accepting the risk to be able to exit a position when a defined loss level is realized, and many other key mindsets that help traders work through the issues they face in taking a trade, making the trade and executing their exit from the trade.

2) Trading is a probability game.  You can’t be a perfectionist and expect to be a great trader. Your losses (that you hope will return to breakeven) will kill you.

3) Jumping in too soon or getting in too late.  These mistakes come from traders not having a well-defined plan of how they will enter the market.  This positions the trader as a reactive trader instead of a proactive trader, which increase the level of emotion the trader will feel in reacting to market movements.  A written plan helps make a trader more systematic and objective, and reduces the risk that emotions will cause the trader to deviate from his plan.

4) Not taking profits on winners and letting winners turn to losers.  Again this is a function of not having a properly thought-out plan.  Entries are easy but exits are hard.  You must have a plan for how you will exit the market, both on your winners and your losers.  Then your job as a trader becomes to execute your plan precisely.

5) Great traders don’t place their own expectations on to the market’s behavior.  Poor traders expect the market to give them something.  When conditions change, a smart trader will recognize that, and take what the market gives. 

6) Emotional pain comes from expectations not being realized.  When you expect something, and it doesn’t deliver as expected, what occurs? Disappointment.  By not having expectations of the market, you are not setting yourself up for this inner turmoil.  Douglas states that the market doesn’t generate pain or pleasure inherently; the market only generates upticks and downticks.  It is how we perceive and respond to these upticks and downticks that determine how we feel.  This perception and feeling is a function of our beliefs.  If you’re still feeling pain when taking a loss according to your plan, you are still experiencing a belief that your loss is somehow a negative reflection on you personally. 

7) The Four Major Fears – fear of losing money, being wrong, missing out, leaving money on the table.  All of these fears result from thinking you know what will happen next. Your trading plan must approach trading as a probabilities game, where you know in advance you will win some and lose some, but that the odds will be in your favor over time.  If you approach trading thinking that you can’t take a loss, then take three losses in a row (which is to be expected in most trading methods), you will be emotionally devastated and will give up on your plan.

How Does Goldman Sachs Make Its Profits?

  
Analysis, Education
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During the 2nd quarter of 2009, Goldman Sachs made more than $100 million in trading income in each of a record straight 46 days, with only two losing days out of 65.  That’s a remarkable hit rate of nearly 97%.

Maybe that’s why Goldman gets to do “God’s work”!

How do Goldman do it? 

How does Goldman make its profits?


 

21 Trading Quotes

  
  Education
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1. “Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn’t do than by the ones you did do.” ~ Mark Twain
2. “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” ~ John Maynard Keynes.
3. “I never buy at the bottom and I always sell too soon.” ~ Baron Rothschild
4. “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?” ~ John Maynard Keynes
5. “Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy; profit from folly rather than participate in it.” ~ Warren Buffett
6. “It is not our duty as speculators to be on the bull side or the bear side but upon the winning side.” ~ Jessie Livermore in Edwin Lefevre’s Reminiscences of a Stock Operator
7. “The  principles of successful speculation are based on the supposition that people will continue in the future to make the mistakes that they made in the past.” ~ Thomas F. Woodlock
8. “It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It was always my sitting tight. Got that?” ~ Mr. Partridge in Edwin Lefevre’s Reminiscences of a Stock Operator
9. “They say you never grow poor taking profits. No, you don’t.  But neither do you grow rich taking a four-point profit in a bull market.” ~ Jessie Livermore in Edwin Lefevre’s Reminiscences of a Stock Operator
10. “Remember that prices are never too high for you to begin buying or too low to begin selling.  But after the initial transaction, don’t make a second unless the first shows you a profit.” ~ Jessie Livermore in Edwin Lefevre’s Reminiscences of a Stock Operator
11. “A loss never bothers me after I take it. I forget it overnight. But being wrong – not taking the loss – that is what does the damage to the pocketbook and the soul.” ~ Jessie Livermore in Edwin Lefevre’s Reminiscences of a Stock Operator
12. “If a man didn’t make mistakes, he’d own the world in a month.  But if he didn’t profit by his mistakes, he wouldn’t own a blessed thing.” ~ Jessie Livermore in Edwin Lefevre’s Reminiscences of a Stock Operator
13. “The man who is right always has two forces working in his favor – basic conditions and the men who are wrong.  In a bull market bear factors are ignored.” ~ Jessie Livermore in Edwin Lefevre’s Reminiscences of a Stock Operator
14. [What advice would you give the novice trader?] – “First, I would say that risk management is the most important thing to be well understood.  Undertrade, undertrade, undertrade is my second piece of advice.  Whatever you think your position ought to be, cut it at least in half.” ~ Bruce Kovner in Jack Schwager’s Market Wizards
15. “There is probably no class of trades with a higher failure rate than impulsive trades.” Jack Schwager in Market Wizards
16. [What is the most important advice you could give the novice trader?] – “Trade small because that’s when you are as bad as you are ever going to be.  Learn from your mistakes.” ~ Richard Dennis in Jack Schwager’s Market Wizards
17. “The elements of good trading are: (1) cutting losses, (2) cutting losses, and (3) cutting losses.  If you can follow these three rules, you may have a chance.”  ~ Ed Seykota in Jack Schwager’s Market Wizards
18. “Charting is a little like surfing.  You don’t have to know a lot about the phsyics of tides, resonance, and fluid dynamics in order to catch a good wave.  You just have to be able to sense when its’s happening and then have the drive to act at the right time.” ~ Ed Seykota in Jack Schwager’s Market Wizards
19. “I have two basic rules about winning in trading as well as in life: (1) If you don’t bet, you can’t win.  (2) If you lose all your chips, you can’t bet.” ~ Larry Hite in Jack Schwager’s Market Wizards
20. “Perhaps the most important rule is to hold on to your winners and cut your losers.  Both are equally important.  If you don’t stay with your winners, you are not going to be able to pay for the losers.” ~ Michael Marcus in Jack Schwager’s Market Wizards
21. “Lose your opinion – not your money” ~ Unknown

Five Market Scenarios

  
  Education
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  1. Bad Markets – A good pattern won’t bail you out of a bad market, so move to the sidelines when conflict and indecision take hold of the tape. Your long-term survival depends on effective trade management. The bottom line: don’t trade when you can’t measure your risk, and stand aside when you can’t find your edge.
  2. Bad Timing – It’s easy to be right but still lose money. Financial instruments are forced to negotiate a minefield of conflicting trends, each dependent on different time frames. Your positions need to align with the majority of these cycles in order to capture the profits visualized in your trade analysis.
  3. Bad Trades – There are a lot of stinkers out there, vying for your attention, so look for perfect convergence before risking capital on a questionable play, and then get out at the first sign of danger. It’s easy to go brain dead and step into a weak-handed position that makes absolutely no sense, whether it moves in your favor or not. The bottom line: it’s never too late to get out of a stupid trade.
  4. Bad Stops – Poor stops will shake you out of good positions. Stops do their best work when placed outside the market noise, while keeping risk to a minimum. Many traders believe professionals hit their stops because they have inside knowledge, but the truth is less mysterious. Most of us stick them in the same old places.
  5. Bad Action – Modern markets try to burn everyone before they launch definable trends. These shakeouts occur because most traders play popular strategies that have been deconstructed by market professionals. In a sense, the buy and sell signals found in TA books are turned against the naïve folks using them.

Quotes from Trading Legends :Paul Tudor Jones-Gary Bielfeldt-Richard Dennis

  
  Education
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Paul Tudor Jones:
“We have tested every system under the sun and, amazingly, we have found one that actually works very well. It is a very good system…(under the realm of) trend following. The basic premise of the system is that markets move sharply when they move. If there is a sudden range expansion in a market that has been trading narrowly, human nature is to try and fade that price move. When you get a range expansion, the market is sending you a very loud, clear signal that the market is getting ready to move in the direction of that expansion.”
“The most important rule of trading is to play great defense, not great offense.”
“I don’t really care about the mistakes I made three seconds ago in the market. What I care about is what I am going to do from the next moment on. I try to avoid any emotional attachment to a market.”
” I always believe that prices move first and fundamentals come second.”
Gary Bielfeldt:
“The best thing that anyone can do when starting out is to learn how a trend system works. Trading a trend system for a while will teach a new trader the principle of letting profits run and cutting losses short. If you can just learn discipline by using a trend-following system, even temporarily, it will increase your odds of being successful as a trader.”
Richard Dennis:
“You should expect the unexpected in this business; expect the extreme. Don’t think in terms of boundaries that limit what the market might do. If there is any lesson I have learned in the nearly twenty years that I’ve been in this business, it is that the unexpected and the impossible happen every now and then.”
“A good trend following system will keep you in the market until there is evidence that the trend has changed.”
“The correct approach is to say: ‘This structure is up, and this structure means no more, but never that this structure means up this much and no more’.”
“I could trade without knowing the name of the market.”
“The market being in a trend is the main thing that eventually gets us in a trade. That is a pretty simple idea. Being consistent and making sure you do that all the time is probably more important than the particular characteristics you use to define the trend. Whatever method you use to enter trades, the most critical thing is that if there is a major trend, your approach should assure that you get in that trend.”

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