Focused on entries, traders often don’t explicitly identify where they would harvest profits. They hold trades too long, exiting in a panic after reversals, or they take profits quickly, missing opportunity. They don’t factor current volatility into estimates of how far the market could move on their time frame, and they often don’t explicitly look for targets based upon prior moves and ranges.
Archives of “profits” tag
rssQuotes from Reminiscences of a Stock Operator
From my trove of interesting market quotes, here are my favourite snippets from “Reminiscences of a Stock Operator” by Edwin Lefevre. I enjoyed Reminiscences greatly, both on the first and second readings.While I disagree with some of his pearls of wisdom, many are definitely worth taking on board. For your contemplation:
I did precisely the wrong thing. The cotton showed me a loss and I kept it. The wheat showed me a profit and I sold it out. Of all the speculative blunders there are few greater than trying to average a losing game. Always sell what shows you a loss and keep what shows you a profit.If all I have is ten dollars and I risk it, I am much braver than when I risk a million if I have another million salted away.
I’ve got friends, of course, but my business has always been the same – a one-man affair. That is why I have always played a lone hand.
What beat me was not having brains enough to stick to my own game – that is, to play the market only when I was satisfied that precedents favoured my play. There is the plain fool, who does the wrong thing at all times everywhere, but there is also the Wall Street fool, who thinks he must trade all the time. No man can have adequate reasons for buying or selling stocks daily – or sufficient knowledge to make his play an intelligent play.
It happened just as I figured. The traders hammered the stocks in which they figured would uncover the most stops, and sure enough, prices slid off.
For one thing, the automatic closing out of your trade when the margin reached the exhaustion point was the best kind of stop-loss order.
The game taught me the game. And it didn’t spare me rod while teaching.
If somebody had told me my method would not work I nevertheless would have tried it out to make sure for myself, for when I am wrong only one thing convinces me of it, and that is, to lose money. And I am only right when I make money. That is speculating.
I knew of course, there must be a limit to the advances and an end to the crazy buying of A.O.T.-Any Old Thing-and I got bearish. But every time I sold I lost money, and if it hadn’t been that I ran darn quick I would have lost a lot more.
Early that fall I not only was cleaned out again but I was so sick of the game I could no longer beat that I decided to leave New York and try something else some other place. I had been trading since my fourteenth year. I had made my first thousand dollars when I was a kid at fifteen, and my first ten thousand before I was twenty one. I had made and lost a ten thousand stake more than once. In New York I had made thousands and lost them. I got up to fifty thousand and two days later that went. I had no other business and knew no other game. After several years I was back where I began. No-worse, for I had acquired habits and a style of living that required money; though that part didn’t bother me as much as being wrong so consistently.
There were times when my plans went wrong and my stocks did not run true to form, but did the opposite of what they should have done if they had kept up their regard for precedent. But they did not hit me very hard – they couldn’t, with my shoestring margins. My relations with my brokers were friendly enough. Their accounts and records did not always agree with mine, and the differences uniformly happened to be against me. Curious coincidence-not! But I fought for my own and usually won in the end. They always had the hope of getting from me what I had taken from them. They regarded my winnings as temporary loans, I think.
Don’t misunderstand me. I never allowed pleasure to interfere with business. When I lost it was always because I was wrong and not because I was suffering from dissipation or excesses. There were never any shattered nerves or rum-shaken limbs to spoil my game. I couldn’t afford anything that kept me from feeling physically and mentally fit. Even now I am usually in bed by ten. As a young man I never kept late hours, because I could not do business properly on insufficient sleep.
For instance, I had been bullish from the very start of a bull market, and I had backed my opinion by buying stocks. An advance followed, as I had clearly foreseen. So far, all very well. But what else did I do? Why, I listened to the elder statesmen and curbed my youthful impetuousness. I made up my mind to be wise carefully, conservatively. Everybody knew that the way to do that was to take profits and buy back your stocks on reactions. And that is precisely what I did, or rather what I tried to do; for I often took profits and waited for a reaction that never came. And I saw my stock go kitting up ten points more and I sitting there with my four-point profit safe in my conservative pocket. They say you never go broke taking profits. No, you don’t. But neither do you grow rich taking a four-point profit in a bull market.
I think it was a long step forward in my trading education when I realised at last that when old Mr Partridge kept on telling other customers, “Well, you know this is a bull market!” he really meant to tell them that the big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements-that is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up the entire market and its trend.
The market does not beat them. They beat themselves, because though they have brains they cannot sit tight. Old Turkey was dead right in doing and saying what he did. He had not only the courage of his convictions but also the intelligence and patience to sit tight.
Disregarding the big swing and trying to jump in and out was fatal to me. Nobody can catch all the fluctuations. In a bull market the game is to buy and hold until you believe the bull market is near its end.
Remember that stocks are never too high for you to begin buying or too low to begin selling.
Suppose he buys his first hundred, and that promptly shows him a loss. Why should he go to work and get more stock? He ought to see at once that he is in the wrong; at least temporarily.
The Union Pacific incident in Saratoga in the summer of 1906 made me more independent than ever of tips and talk – that is, of the opinions, surmises and suspicions of other people, however friendly or however able they might be personally. Events, not vanity, proved for me that I could read the tape more accurately than most of the people about me. I also was better equipped than the average customer of Harding Brothers in that I was utterly free from speculative prejudices. The bear side doesn’t appeal any more than the bull side, or vice versa. My one steadfast prejudice is against being wrong.
When I am long of stocks it is because my reading of conditions has made me bullish. But you find many people, reputed to be intelligent, who are bullish because they have stocks. I do not allow my possessions – or my prepossessions either – to do any thinking for me. That is why I repeat that I never argue with the tape.
Obviously the thing to do was to be bullish in a bull market and bearish in a bear market.
… I came to learn that even when one is properly bearish at the very beginning of a bear market it is not well to begin selling in bulk until there is no danger of the engine back-firing.
Of course, if a man is both wise and lucky, he will not make the same mistake twice. But he will make any one of ten thousand brothers or cousins of the original. The Mistake family is so large that there is always one of them around when you want to see what you can do in the fool-play line.
Losing money is the least of my troubles. A loss never troubles me after I take it. I forget it overnight. But being wrong – not taking the loss – that is what does the damage to the pocket book and to the soul.
“I can’t sleep” answered the nervous one.
“Why not?” asked the friend.
“I am carrying so much cotton that I can’t sleep thinking about. It is wearing me out. What can I do?”
“Sell down to the sleeping point”, answered the friend.
He will risk half his fortune in the stock market with less reflection that he devotes to the selection of a medium-priced automobile.
It sounds very easy to say that all you have to do is to watch the tape, establish your resistance points and be ready to trade along the line of least resistance as soon as you have determined it. But in actual practice a man has to guard against many things, and most of all against himself – that is, against human nature.
A speculator must concern himself with making money out of the market and not with insisting that the tape must agree with him. Never argue with it or ask for reasons or explanations.
He should accumulate his line on the way up. Let him buy one-fifth of his full line. If that does not show him a profit he must not increase his holdings because he has obviously begun wrong; he is wrong temporarily and there is no profit in being wrong at any time.
Fear keeps you from making as much money as you ought to.
That was the only one case. There isn’t a man on Wall Street who has not lost money trying to make the market pay for an automobile or a bracelet or a motor boat or a painting.
More than once in the past I had run up a shoe-string in to hundreds of thousands. Sooner or later the market would offer me an opportunity.
The game does not change and neither does human nature.
After I paid off my debts in full I put a pretty fair amount in to annuities. I made up my mind I wasn’t going to be strapped and uncomfortable and minus a stake ever again.
Among the hazards of speculation the happening of the unexpected – I might even say of the unexpectable – ranks high.
I started my buying operations in the winter of 1917. I took quite a lot of coffee. The market however, did nothing to speak of. It continued inactive and as for the price, it did not go up as I had expected. The outcome of it all was that I simply carried my line to no purpose for nine long months.
I trade on my own information and follow my own methods.
He was utterly fearless but never reckless. He could, and did, turn on a twinkling if he found he was wrong.
At the same time I realise that the best of all tipsters, the most persuasive of all salesmen, is the tape.
The speculator’s deadly enemies are: Ignorance, greed, fear and hope. All the statue books in the world and all the rule books on all the Exchanges of the earth cannot eliminate these from the human animal.
On Pat Hearne – He made money in stocks, and that made people ask him for advice. He would never give any. If they asked him point-blank for his opinion about the wisdom of their commitments he used a favourite race-track maxim of his: “You can’t tell till you bet.” He traded in our office. He would buy one hundred shares of some active stock and when, or if, it went up 1 percent, he would buy another hundred. On another points advance, another hundred shares; and so on. He used to say that he wasn’t playing the game to make money for others and therefore would put in a stop-loss order one point below the price of his last purchase. When the price kept going up he simply moved up his stop with it. On a 1 percent reaction he was stopped out. He declared he did not see any sense in losing more than one point, whether it came out of his original margin or out of his paper profits.
“You know, a professional gambler is not looking for long shots, but for sure money. Of course, long shots are fine when they come in. In the stock market Pat wasn’t after tips or playing to catch twenty-points-a-week advances, but sure money in sufficient quantity to provide him with a good sense of living. Of all the thousands of outsiders I have run across in Wall Street, Pat Hearne was the only one who saw in stock speculation merely a game of chance like faro or roulette, but nevertheless had the sense to stick to a relatively sound betting method.
“After Pat Hearne’s death one of our customers who had always traded with Pat and used his system made over a hundred thousand dollars in Luckawana. Then he switched over to some other stock and because he had made a big stake he thought he need not stick to Pat’s way. When a reaction came, instead of cutting his losses he let them run – as though they were profits. Of course every cent went. When he finally quit he owed us several thousand dollars.
And he was right. I sometimes think that speculation must be an unnatural sort of business, because I find that the average speculator has arrayed against his own nature. The weaknesses that all men are prone to are fatal to success in speculation – usually those very weaknesses that make him likable to his fellows or that he himself particularly guards against in those other ventures of his where they are not nearly so dangerous as when he is trading in commodities or stocks.
The public ought always to keep in mind the elementals of stock trading. When a stock is going up no elaborate explanation is needed as to why it is going up. It takes continuous buying to make a stock keep going up. As long as it does so, with only small and natural reactions from time to time, it is a pretty safe proposition to trail with it.
But if after a long steady rise a stock turns and gradually begins to go down, with only occasionally small rallies, it is obvious that the line of least resistance has changed from upward to downward. Such being the case why should anyone ask for explanations? There are probably very good reasons why it should go down…
Have a plan for every trade and ask yourself
- What is my criteria for entering this position? – Ideally this has been tested or proven over time.
- How much I’m I willing to risk in order to be right? – This will help you determine the appropriate position size, and let you be comfortable if you need to take a loss.
- When will I take profits? – Yes you can let your profits run, but there’s nothing worse that letting a nice winning position turn around into a loser. Fixed exits can be very effective and depending on the strategy, and it might be more effective to take profits at times.
- How will I determine when the conditions for entering a trade have changed? – Regardless of whether you use technical or fundamental analysis, it’s important to know when your reasons for entering a trade are no longer valid.
- What is my time horizon? – How long do you expect a trade to last? This can give you a basis for closing a position if the move that you expected doesn’t occur. This will also help ensure that trading capital isn’t tied up when it can be used on better opportunities.
30 Trading Rules
1. Buying a weak stock is like betting on a slow horse. It is retarded.
2. Stocks are only cheap if they are going higher after you buy them.
3. Never trust a person more than the market. People lie, the market does not.
4. Controlling losers is a must; let your winners run out of control.
5. Simplicity in trading demonstrates wisdom. Complexity is the sign of inexperience.
6. Have loyalty to your family, your dog, your team. Have no loyalty to your stocks.
7. Emotional traders want to give the disciplined their money.
8. Trends have counter trends to shake the weak hands out of the market.
9. The market is usually efficient and can not be beat. Exploit inefficiencies.
10. To beat the market, you must have an edge.
11. Being wrong is a necessary part of trading profitably. Admit when you are wrong.
12. If you do what everyone is doing you will be average, so goes the definition.
13. Information is only valuable if no one knows about it.
14. Lower your risk till you sleep like a baby.
15. There is always a reason why stocks go up or down, we usually only learn the reason when it is too late.
16. Trades that make a lot of intellectual sense are likely to be losers.
17. You do not have to be right more than you are wrong to make money in the market.
18. Don’t worry about the trades that you miss, there will always be another.
19. Fear is more powerful than greed and so down trends are sharper than up trends.
20. Analyze the people, not the stock.
21. Trading is a dictators game; you can not trade by committee.
22. The best traders are the ones who do not care about the money.
23. Do not think you are smarter than the market, you are not.
24. For most traders, profits are short term loans from the market.
25. The stock market can not be predicted, we can only play the probabilities.
26. The farther price is from a linear trend, the more likely it is to correct.
27. Learn from your losses, you paid for them.
28. The market is cruel, it gives the test first and the lesson afterward.
29. Trading is simple but it is not easy.
30. The easiest time to make money is when there is a trend.
A great quote
I’m sure every trader has run into some kind of negativity from know-it-all chodes who just don’t get what this subject is about – it goes something along the lines of “What good does it actually do? You are just stealing other peoples money?” blah blah *yawn* blah….
Here’s a great quote from a book I’m reading “Hedge Fund Edge” that demolishes their complaints:
“Principle 7: Develop a Love and Respect for Trading, Free Markets, and Individual Liberty and Initiative.
Profits are just the gravy. When they test a group of traders, one of the traits that almost all successful traders and investors share is a deep understanding of how trading and investing is part of the process that allows humankind to progress. Even day-traders provide critical liquidity that allows others to hedge, companies to raise capital, and investors to invest with limited risk. Stock selection allows investors to become second-level venture capital firms, with their demand helping provide access to financing in areas where the people need capital most. The more you understand the remarkable way in which freedom and free association work to produce economic gain and real progress for humankind from new innovations and technologies, the more likely you are to feel a strong sense of purpose at being a part of such an incredible system. And the stronger your sense that your efforts are creating something good that is bigger than yourself, the more committed, enriched, excited, and innovative you will become.”
… so put that in your pipe and smoke it.
5 Thoughts for Traders-Must Read
1. We want all trades to be winners. The foolproof system for trading profits is attractive and the seller of such systems can be convincing, yet the profits are elusive. The market could care less about our system, a past trading record, or the trading record of the one selling the system. You do know that the market’s attorney requires that the following be posted in a prominent place…like on our foreheads beside the big L sign!: “Past results are not indicative of future returns.” By the way, the market says, “you’re doing it wrong”.
2. We want to add to losers. The last time I checked the only reason we add to a loser is when the discussion is about our weight! Get on the scales and add up more losing pounds! Be the BIGGEST LOSER! The market, however, says the way to tip the scales in our favor is to add to the winners and lighten up on the losers. To do otherwise is to “do it wrong”.
3. We want to be right. Two wrongs don’t make a right in life but in the stock market two wrongs (and plenty more) will help you get on the right road to making money. The market says the trading game is about making money not about stroking the ego. The “right” road is the “wrong” road when your on Wall Street. Hey, if you doing it to be right, then you’re “doing it wrong!” (more…)
Avoid these Mistakes
Don’t trade to trade. Understand that there are 3 positions you can take as a trader: a long position, a short position and a position to NOT be in a position. There will be plenty of trading opportunities that will come along. Don’t give money to the markets simply because you are bored! .
Avoid trading a strategy without having a good understanding of how the strategy works. What is the typical winning percentage? What is the largest drawdown? In general, high winning percentage strategies have smaller average profits per trade. Lower winning percentage strategies might not have as many winners, but when you are a winner, you typically win big. If you expect your strategy to bring big profits without losses, you can also expect a check made out to “REALITY” to come your way any day.
100% You will lose Money
You are entering a position out of EMOTIONS or ANTICIPATION at wrong price level in a WRONG scrip with GREED or HOPE with no pre-entry exit in the place – even worst, once in a trade, riding the position with HOPE without STOP LOSS even if it goes against the entry – adding more to average down in the entirely wrong trade – at last running out PATIENCES and out of FRUSTRATION booking huge LOSS. Even the position is in PORFIT there is no STOP LOSS or pre-entry EXIT in place – exiting the position abruptly in FEAR booking just a small profit with FEAR that market may take this small profit too – these random small profits unable to compensate earlier big losses! To cover big losses you try more and more RANDOM trades and above process continues – end result it challenges your EGO and creates more FEAR, more AGONY – cycle continues with small profits and big losses – until account is wiped off. |
THE IMPORTANCE OF SITTING
Patience is important not only in waiting for the right trades, but also in staying with trades that are working. The failure to adequately profit from correct trades is a key profit-limiting factor. Quoting again from Lefevre in Reminiscences, “It never was my thinking that made big money for me. It was always my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!” Also, recall Eckhardt’s comment on the subject: “One common adage … that is completely wrongheaded is: You can’t go broke taking profits. That’s precisely how many traders do go broke. While amateurs go broke by taking large losses, professionals go broke by taking small profits.”
True False Questions
True or False
- The big money in trading is made when one can get long at lows after a big downtrend.
- It’s good to average down when buying.
- After a long trend, the market requires more consolidation before another trend starts.
- It’s important to know what to do if trading in commodities doesn’t succeed.
- It is not helpful to watch every quote in the markets one trades.
- It is a good idea to put on or take off a position all at once.
- Diversification is better than always being in 1 or 2 markets.
- If a day’s profit or loss makes a significant difference to your net worth, you are overtrading.
- A trader learns more from his losses than his profits.
- Except for commission and brokerage fees, execution costs for entering orders are minimal over the course of a year.
- It’s easier to trade well than to trade poorly.
- It’s important to know what success in trading will do for you later in life.
- Uptrends end when everyone gets bearish.
- The more bullish news you hear the less likely a market is to break out on the upside.
- For an off-floor trader, a long-term trade ought to last 3 or 4 weeks or less.
- Other’s opinions of the market are good to follow.
- Volume and open interest are as important as price action.
- Daily strength and weakness is a good guide for liquidating long term positions with big profits.
- Off-floor traders should spread different markets of different market groups.
- The more people are going long the less likely an uptrend is to continue in the beginning of a trend.
- Off-floor traders should not spread different delivery months of the same commodity.
- Buying dips and selling rallies is a good strategy.
- It’s important to take a profit most of the time.
- Of 3 types of orders (market, stop, and resting), market orders cost the least skid.
- The more bullish news you hear and the more people are going long the less likely the uptrend is to continue after a substantial uptrend.
- The majority of traders are always wrong.
- Trading bigger is an overall handicap to one’s trading performance.
- Larger traders can muscle markets to their advantage.
- Vacations are important for traders to keep the proper perspective.
- Undertrading is almost never a problem.
- Ideally, average profits should be about 3 or 4 times average losses.
- A trader should be willing to let profits turn into losses.
- A very high percentage of trades should be profits.
- A trader should like to take losses.
- It is especially relevant when the market is higher than it’s been in 4 and 13 weeks.
- Needing and wanting money are good motivators to good trading.
- One’s natural inclinations are good guides to decision making in trading.
- Luck is an ingredient in successful trading over the long run.
- When you’re long, limit up is a good place to take a profit.
- It takes money to make money.
- It’s good to follow hunches in trading.
- There are players in each market one should not trade against.
- All speculators die broke
- The market can be understood better through social psychology than through economics.
- Taking a loss should be a difficult decision for traders.
- After a big profit, the next trend following trade is more likely to be a loss.
- Trends are not likely to persist.
- Almost all information about a market is at least a little useful in helping make decisions.
- It’s better to be an expert in 1-2 markets rather than try to trade 10 or more markets.
- In a winning streak, total risk should rise dramatically.
- Trading stocks is similar to trading commodities.
- It’s a good idea to know how much you are ahead or behind during a trading session.
- A losing month is an indication of doing something wrong.
- A losing week is an indication of doing something wrong.
- One should favor being long or being short – whichever one is comfortable with.
- On initiation one should know precisely at what price to liquidate if a profit occurs.
- One should trade the same number of contracts in all markets.
- If one has $10000 to risk, one ought to risk $2500 on every trade.
- On initiation one should know precisely where to liquidate if a loss occurs.
- You can never go broke taking profits.
- It helps to have the fundamentals in your favor before you initiate.
- A gap up is a good place to initiate if an uptrend has started.
- If you anticipate buy stops in the market, wait until they are finished and buy a little higher than that.