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The market is like an ocean

  
  Education
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trading_for_a_livingThe market is like an ocean – it moves up and down regardless of what you want. You may feel joy when you buy a stock and it explodes in a rally. You may feel drenched with fear when you go short but the market rises and your equity melts with every uptick. These feelings have nothing to do with the market – they exist only inside you.

The market does not know you exist. You can do nothing to influence it. You can only control your behavior.

The ocean does not care about your welfare, but it has no wish to hurt you either. You may feel joy on a sunny day, when a gentle wind pushes your sailboat where you want it to go. You may feel panic on a stormy day when the ocean pushes your boat toward the rocks. Your feelings about the ocean exist only in your mind. They threaten your survival when you let your feelings rather than intellect control your behavior.

A sailor cannot control the ocean, but he can control himself. He studies currents and weather patterns. He learns safe sailing techniques and gains experience. He knows when to sail and when to stay in the harbor. A successful sailor uses his intelligence.

Trading Psychology

  
  Education
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Your biggest enemy, when trading, is within yourself. Success will only  come when you learn to control your emotions. Edwin Lefevre’s

 Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (1923) offers advice that still applies  today.

 Caution
 Excitement (and fear of missing an opportunity) often persuade us to enter the market  before it is safe to do so. After a down-trend a number of rallies may fail before one  eventually carries through. Likewise, the emotional high of a profitable trade may blind  us to signs that the trend is reversing.

 Patience
 Wait for the right market conditions before trading. There are times when it is wise to  stay out of the market and observe from the sidelines.

 Conviction
 Have the courage of your convictions: Take steps to protect your profits when you see  that a trend is weakening, but sit tight and don’t let fear of losing part of your profit  cloud your judgment. There is a good chance that the trend will resume its upward  climb.

 Detachment
 Concentrate on the technical aspects rather than on the money. If your trades are  technically correct, the profits will follow.

 Stay emotionally detached from the market. Avoid getting caught up in the short-term  excitement. Screen-watching is a tell-tale sign: if you continually check prices or stare at  charts for hours it is a sign that you are unsure of your strategy and are likely to suffer  losses.

 Focus
 Focus on the longer time frames and do not try to catch every short-term fluctuation.  The most profitable trades are in catching the large trends.

 Expect the unexpected
 Investing involves dealing with probabilities ? not certainties. No one can predict the  market correctly every time. Avoid gamblers? logic.

 Average up – not down
 If you increase your position when price goes against you, you are liable to compound  your losses. When price starts to move it is likely to continue in that direction. Rather  increase your exposure when the market proves you right and moves in your favor.

 Limit your losses
 Use stop-losses to protect your funds. When the stop loss is triggered, act immediately  – don’t hesitate.

 The biggest mistake you can make is to hold on to falling stocks, hoping for a recovery.  Falling stocks have a habit of declining way below what you expected them to.  Eventually you are forced to sell, decimating your capital.

 Human nature being what it is, most traders and investors ignore these  rules when they first start out. It can be an expensive lesson.

 Control your emotions and avoid being swept along with the crowd. Make consistent  decisions based on sound technical analysis.

Trading is simple. The trader is complicated

  
  Education
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Here is a very short list of comments from very reliable sources—successful professional traders.

From my collection of Books

 John F. Carter: “It is important to remember that there is no need to spend wasted years looking for complicated setups or the next Holy Grail.  There are very simple setups out there to use.  Some of the best traders I know have been trading the same setup, on the same time frame, on the same market for 20 years. They don’t care about anything else, and they don’t want to learn about anything else.  This works for them, and they are the masters of this setup.  They have nothing else coming in to interfere with their focus” (p. 31, Mastering the Trade: Proven Techniques for Profiting from Intraday and Swing Trading Setups).

Clifford Bennett: “While there have been some spectacular front-cover traders, the ones who amass fortunes year after year tend to stay in the background. At the very least, they display a simple and down-to-earth approach to markets if they are ever interviewed” (p. 117, Warrior Trading: Inside the Mind of an Elite Currency Trader).

Mark Douglas: “What you want to do is become an expert at just one particular type of behavior pattern that repeats itself with some degree of frequency. To become an expert, choose one simple trading system that identifies a pattern, preferably one that is mechanical, instead of mathematical, so that you will be working with a visual representation of market behavior. Your objective is to understand completely every aspect of the system-all the relationships between the components-and its potential to produce profitable trades.  In the meantime, it is important to avoid all other possibilities and information” (pp. 208-09, The Disciplined Trader: Developing Winning Attitudes).

Marcel Link: “Systems should be kept as simple as possible. Overdoing things doesn’t make a system better; on the contrary, it can take away from a good system.  Trying to make a system too complicated with too many indicators and variables is a common mistake with some traders: some of the best systems are the simplest. As a rule of thumb, a system should fit on the back of an envelope and be easily explained so that someone can understand what every indicator does and every rule does.  Otherwise it’s too complicated.  Always remember the old adage ‘Keep it simple, stupid’ and you’ll be okay” (p 249, High Probability Trading).

George Angell: “One observation I’ve made over the years, which is especially notable on the trading floor, is that everyone who truly succeeds is a specialist. Unlike the novice trader, who may dabble in as many as a dozen different futures contracts, the professional floor trader is identified with just one kind of futures and one specific type of trading…moreover, the professional is identified by his specialty-scalper, short-term trader, spread trader, or whatever.  He does the same thing every day (pp. 10-11, Sniper Trading).

John Murphy: “My work has gotten better due to simplifying my approach.” (KEY TO SUCCESS)

Dennis Gartman: “Keep your technical systems simple. Complicated systems breed confusion; simplicity breeds elegance.” (From Dennis Gartman’s Trading Rules List, Rule #12).

Psychology and Gaining Confidence

  
  Education
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Hi All,

There has been a lot of talk on the  psychology of trading and getting rid of fear etc. I think that one way to help is to understand the performance parameters of your trading system and this means extensive
backtesting and changing the way you think when entering a trade.

Now whenever I have placed a trade I have assumed that I was wrong and so if the market did not immediately prove my position correct I would be taking measures to reduce my position and, if necessary,
get out. This kept my losses small and when correct I was able to do nothing and just move my stop up. This is contrary to the way most people trade in that they place a trade assuming they are right and wait
for the market to prove them wrong.

IAlso if you have backtested a system thoroughly you will know what percentage of profitable trades you can expect. From this you can also determine the number of consecutive losing trades that you can
expect for a given number of trades. The formula is quite straight forward and is:
Consecutive losses = LN(N)/-LN(S) where
N = Number of expected trades
S = (100-strike rate %)/100

Now if you place say 30 trades a month and you have a 50% success rate, you can expect to have 5 consecutive losing trades.

But the more trades you place the bigger the chance of consecutive losing runs. So if our trader has 12 x 30 trades a year = 360 they can expect to have nearly 9 consecutive losing trades.

Of course the opposite is also true in that you could expect to get 9 consecutive winning trades as well. The problem is that I have seen many systems that have only a 40% success rate and in the same
example above this would result in 12 consecutive losing trades. Psychologically this is very difficult to handle yet if you had backtested your system thoroughly it is easily seen that this is to be expected and
means that your system is operating within normal parameters.

Food for thought I hope

My 10 Favorite Nicolas Darvas Quotes

  
  Education
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My favorite Nicolas Darvas quotes from the book on the subject of:
Discipline:
“I knew now that I had to keep rigidly to the system I had carved out for myself.”
Risk/Reward:
“I was successful in taking larger profits than losses in proportion to the amounts invested.”
Exiting profitable trades:
“I decided to let my stop-loss decide.”(Speaking on when to exit an up trending stock)
Bear Markets
“I also learned to stay out of bear markets unless my individual stocks remain in their boxes or advance.”
Technical Analysis versus Predictions
“I believe in analysis and not forecasting.”
Trading Psychology
“I became over-confident, and that is the most dangerous state of mind anyone can develop in the stock market.”
Risk Management

“I decided never again to risk more money than I could afford to lose without ruining myself.”
Fundamental Analysis

“All a company report and balance sheet can tell you is the past and the present. They cannot tell future.”
Trend Following
“I made up my mind to buy high and sell higher.”
The Market tells its own story best

I accepted everything for what it was-not what I wanted it to be.”

TIMING ENTRIES AND EXITS

  
  Education
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1. Forget the news, remember the chart. No one is smart enough to know how news will affect price in every case.  The chart already knows the news is coming.

2. Execute positions based on numbers, time, and volume, not emotions.  This discipline forces the trader to distance himself from reckless gambling behavior. 

3. Remember that participants in the markets echo similar patterns over and over again based on the infallible rules of human behavior allowing the trader to take advantage of potentially profitable trades while minimizing losses. 

Psychology and Gaining Confidence

  
  Education
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CONFIDENCEThere has been a lot of talk on the  psychology of trading and getting rid of fear etc. I think that one way to help is to understand the performance parameters of your trading system and this means extensive  backtesting and changing the way you think when entering a trade.

Now whenever I have placed a trade I have assumed that I was wrong and so if the market did not immediately prove my position correct I would be taking measures to reduce my position and, if necessary, get out. This kept my losses small and when correct I was able to do nothing and just move my stop up. This is contrary to the way most people trade in that they place a trade assuming they are right and wait for the market to prove them wrong.

IAlso if you have backtested a system thoroughly you will know what percentage of profitable trades you can expect. From this you can also determine the number of consecutive losing trades that you can expect for a given number of trades. The formula is quite straight forward and is:
Consecutive losses = LN(N)/-LN(S) where
N = Number of expected trades
S = (100-strike rate %)/100 (more…)

50 Trading Mistakes

  
  Education
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1. Many futures traders trade without a plan. They do not define specific risk and profit objectives before trading. Even if they establish a plan, they “second guess” it and don’t stick to it, particularly if the trade is a loss. Consequently, they overtrade and use their equity to the limit (are undercapitalized), which puts them in a squeeze and forces them to liquidate positions.

Usually, they liquidate the good trades and keep the bad ones.

2. Many traders don’t realize the news they hear and read has already been discounted by the market.

3. After several profitable trades, many speculators become wild and aggressive. They base their trades on hunches and long shots, rather than sound fundamental and technical reasoning, or put their money into one deal that “can’t fail.”

4. Traders often try to carry too big a position with too little capital, and trade too frequently for the size of the account.

5. Some traders try to “beat the market” by day trading, nervous scalping, and getting greedy.

6. They fail to pre-define risk, add to a losing position, and fail to use stops.

7 .They frequently have a directional bias; for example, always wanting to be long.

8. Lack of experience in the market causes many traders to become emotionally and/or financially committed to one trade, and unwilling or unable to take a loss. They may be unable to admit they have made a mistake, or they look at the market on too short a time frame.

9. They overtrade.

10. Many traders can’t (or don’t) take the small losses. They often stick with a loser until it really hurts, then take the loss. This is an undisciplined approach…a trader needs to develop and stick with a system. (more…)

Asymmetry

  
  Education
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symetryA general principle in trading for me is that without thorough investigation, comprehension, and experimentation leading to full acceptance, no trading rule or system can be properly executed. If one cannot completely understand and embrace the reasoning behind some method or axiom, whether internally discovered or externally given, the reflex necessary to act without further thinking or doubt is fatally compromised — the circuit between the eyes watching the screen and the finger on the trigger cannot afford even the slightest impedence. One area in my trading which I’ve been struggling over has been the disparity between the success of my entries versus the failure of my exits on profitable trades. If I had the ability to accurately anticipate and identify the origins of a move, why were my attempts in capturing and keeping the bulk of the profits so horribly inept? Why was my timing in closing trades so blatantly pathetic in comparison with their openings, to the point where I would either consistently stop-out on the lows of retracements, or conversely wind up giving back the entire move if I tried to avoid getting shaken out. (more…)

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