Archives of “price momentum” tag

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Quantitative Strategies for Achieving Alpha by Richard Tortoriello -Book Review

  
  Education
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In this book Richard Tortoriello sets out find empirical drivers for stock market returns. This is a new book published last month. The author tests 1200 strategies on stock above 500 million valuation to determine the major fundamental and market based drivers for future stock market returns.After such analysis he presents strategies that consistently outperform the market.

The author tests 7 basic categories of stocks factors:
  1. Profitability
  2. Valuation
  3. Cash flow
  4. Growth
  5. Capital allocation
  6. Price momentum
  7. Red Flags ( risk factors)
 
Detailed quantitative tests  for each of the factors are presented in the book. As the author works for S&P, he has access to the best database on stocks and he presents his findings for multiple factors within each of the above seven categories. The testing shows that the top single factor strategy for achieving excess return is price momentum calculated using 28/16 relative strength. The best strategy using two combined factor for excess return is price momentum plus nearness 52 week high. 
 
This book unlike other quant books is easy to understand and well presented. The biggest advantage of this book is it will give you building blocks to build your trading strategy around things that empirically work in the market. Knowing what works and why it works can help you build better trading models.

Book Review: Market Indicators

  
  Education
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MARKETINDICATORS

Every one one us has limited bandwidth for analysis of data. We pick and choose a few ideas that seem to work for us, and then stick with them. That is often best, because good investors settle into investment methods that are consistent with their character. But every now and then it is good to open things up and try to see whether the investment methods can be improved.

For those that use market indicators, this is the sort of book that will make one say, “What if? What if I combine this market indicator with what I am doing now in my investing?” In most cases, the answer will be “Um, that doesn’t seem to fit.” But one good idea can pay for a book and then some. All investment strategies have weaknesses, but often the weaknesses of one method can be complemented by another. My favorite example is that as a value investor, I am almost always early. I buy and sell too soon, and leave profits on the table. Adding a momentum overlay can aid the value investor by delaying purchases of seemingly cheap stocks when the price is falling rapidly, and delaying sales of seemingly cheap stocks when the price is rising rapidly.

Looking outside your current circle of competence (more…)

9 Wisdom Quotes from George Soros

  
  Education
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George Soros doesn’t need an introduction. He is a living trading legend. Here are some of the smartest things he has ever said about markets. His thoughts are in brown.

1. Perceptions affect prices and prices affect perceptionsGeorge-Soros-gold

I believe that market prices are always wrong in the sense that they present a biased view of the future. But distortion works in both directions: not only do market participants operate with a bias, but their bias can also influence the course of events.

For instance, the stock market is generally believed to anticipate recessions, it would be more correct to say that it can help to precipitate them. Thus I replace the assertion that markets are always right with two others: I) Markets are always biased in one direction or another; II) Markets can influence the events that they anticipate.

As long as the bias is self-reinforcing, expectations rise even faster than stock prices.
Nowhere is the role of expectations more clearly visible than in financial markets. Buy and sell decisions are based on expectations about future prices, and future prices, in turn are contingent on present buy and sell decisions.

2. On Reflexivity

Fundamental analysis seeks to establish how underlying values are reflected in stock prices, whereas the theory of reflexivity shows how stock prices can influence underlying values. One provides a static picture, the other a dynamic one.

Sometimes prices change before fundamentals change. Sometimes fundamentals change before prices change. Price is what pays and until expectations change, prices don’t change. What causes expectations to change? – it could be change in fundamentals or change in prices. So what I am saying is that sometimes prices could be manipulated to change expectations, which will fuel further price momentum in a self-reinforcing way.

3. “Once a trend is established it tends to persist and to run its full course.” – Sentiment changes slowly in trending markets (up or down) and extremely fast in choppy, range-bound markets.

4. “When a long-term trend loses it’s momentum, short-term volatility tends to rise. It is easy to see why that should be so: the trend-following crowd is disoriented.” (more…)

Mark Cuban On Story Stocks

  
  Education
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Don’t Miss to Read :
Different catalysts matter for the different time frames. In short-term perspective, price momentum is the most powerful catalyst. Short-term could sometimes be a couple years in the market. Here are a few wise words, written in 2004, by someone who has been on both sides of the table – as a shareholder and company owner:

For years, a company’s price can have less to do with a company’s real prospects than with the excitement it and its supporters are able to generate among investors. That lesson was reinforced as I saw the Gandalf experience repeated with many different stocks over the next 10 years. Brokers and bankers market and sell stocks. Unless demand can be manufactured, the
stock will decline.
If the value of a stock is what people will pay for it, then Broadcast.com was fairly valued. We were able to work with Morgan Stanley to create volume around the stock. Volume creates demand. Stocks don’t go up because companies do well or do poorly. Stocks go up and down depending on supply and demand. If a stock is marketed well enough to create more demand from buyers than there are sellers, the stock will go up. What about fundamentals? Fundamentals is a word invented by sellers to find buyers. (more…)

To lose Money :Just follow 6 points

  
  Education
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LoseMoney4_Full

Here is some common advice that I see all the time, that if you follow it you will lose.
Don’t fall into the trap of accepting it or following it.
Here are 6 of my favorites:

1. Day trading is a low risk high reward way to trade
How many writers do you see talk about day trading and how successful they are at it?
Lots!
Now:
How many of them can show a real time track record of profits over the long term?
None.
This is simply the dumbest way to trade there is. (more…)

Learn from Your Mistakes

  
  Education
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The most successful traders and aggressive investors learn from their mistakes. Many even go as far as writing down what went wrong and analyzing the problem. Mistakes can be costly, so use them as learning experiences and don’t make the same mistake twice. Unfortunately, many people are doomed to make the same mistakes over and over again. This behavior is usually a sign of emotional reactions to price momentum and the absence of any well-thought-out strategy. My father once told me that the best education comes from learning from the mistakes of others. Most people fail in the market not because of technology or a lack of information but because of emotional reactions and a failure to learn from their mistakes and the mistakes of others.

A Look at 9 Quotes from George Soros

  
Education, Life
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1. Perceptions affect prices and prices affect perceptions

I believe that market prices are always wrong in the sense that they present a biased view of the future. But distortion works in both directions: not only do market participants operate with a bias, but their bias can also influence the course of events.
For instance, the stock market is generally believed to anticipate recessions, it would be more correct to say that it can help to precipitate them. Thus I replace the assertion that markets are always right with two others: I) Markets are always biased in one direction or another; II) Markets can influence the events that they anticipate.
As long as the bias is self-reinforcing, expectations rise even faster than stock prices.
Nowhere is the role of expectations more clearly visible than in financial markets. Buy and sell decisions are based on expectations about future prices, and future prices, in turn are contingent on present buy and sell decisions.

2. On Reflexivity

Fundamental analysis seeks to establish how underlying values are reflected in stock prices, whereas the theory of reflexivity shows how stock prices can influence underlying values. One provides a static picture, the other a dynamic one.

Sometimes prices change before fundamentals change. Sometimes fundamentals change before prices change. Price is what pays and until expectations change, prices don’t change. What causes expectations to change? – it could be change in fundamentals or change in prices. So what I am saying is that sometimes prices could be manipulated to change expectations, which will fuel further price momentum in a self-reinforcing way. (more…)

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