Looks like Schwager is putting out a new version of his famous Market Wizards series. Personally I’d like to see a “where are they now” from the past few books. (His other books here.)
Hedge Fund Market Wizards
Table of Contents
Introduction
Part I: Macro Men
Chapter 1 Colm O’Shea: Knowing When It’s Raining
Chapter 2 Ray Dalio: The Man Who Loves Mistakes
Chapter 3 Scott Ramsey: Low-Risk Futures Trader
Chapter 4 Jamie Mai: Seeking Asymmetry
Chapter 5 Jaffray Woodriff: The Third Way
Part II: Multi
Chapter 6 Edward Thorp: The Innovator
Chapter 7 Larry Benedict: Beyond Three Strikes
Chapter 8 Michael Platt: The Art and Science of Risk Control
Part III: Equity
Chapter 9 Steve Clark: Do more of What Works and Less of What Doesn’t
Chapter 10 Martin Taylor: The Tsar Has No Clothes
Chapter 11 Tom Claugus: A Change of Plans
Chapter 12 Joe Vidich: Harvesting Losses
Chapter 13 Kevin Daly: Who Is Warren Buffett?
Chapter 14 Jimmy Balodimas: Stepping in Front of Freight Trains
Chapter 15 Joel Greenblatt: The Magic Formula
Conclusion 40 Market Wizard Lessons
Appendix 1 The Gain to Pain Ratio
Appendix 2 TITLE TK
Archives of “o shea” tag
rssThe Great Trades Are Obvious
The great trades don’t require predictions. The Soros trade of going short the pound in 1992 was based on something that had already happened — an ongoing deep recession that made it inevitable that the U.K. would not maintain the high interest rates required by remaining in the E.R.M. Afterward, everyone said, “That was incredibly obvious.”
“Most of the great trades are incredibly obvious. It was the same in late 2007. In my mind, it was clear that the financial system was imploding and that most market participants hadn’t noticed.”
– Colm O’ Shea, Hedge Fund Market Wizards
Do you agree that the great trades are obvious? Why do so many market participants miss what is unfolding right before their eyes?
What are the elements in your process for observing, keeping tabs on, and exploiting major macro trends?
The Great Trades Are Obvious
“The great trades don’t require predictions. The Soros trade of going short the pound in 1992 was based on something that had already happened — an ongoing deep recession that made it inevitable that the U.K. would not maintain the high interest rates required by remaining in the E.R.M. Afterward, everyone said, “That was incredibly obvious.”
“Most of the great trades are incredibly obvious. It was the same in late 2007. In my mind, it was clear that the financial system was imploding and that most market participants hadn’t noticed.”
– Colm O’ Shea, Hedge Fund Market Wizards
Key Lessons For All Traders
Find a Trading Method That Fits Your Personality
Traders must find a methodology that fits their own beliefs and talents. A sound methodology that is very successful for one trader can be a poor fit and a losing strategy for another trader. Colm O’Shea, one of the global macro managers I interviewed, lucidly expressed this concept in answer to the question of whether trading skill could be taught:
If I try to teach you what I do, you will fail because you are not me. If you hang around me, you will observe what I do, and you may pick up some good habits. But there are a lot of things you will want to do differently. A good friend of mine, who sat next to me for several years, is now managing lots of money at another hedge fund and doing very well. But he is not the same as me. What he learned was not to become me. He became something else. He became him.
Trade Within Your Comfort Zone
If a position is too large, the trader will be prone to exit good trades on inconsequential corrections because fear will dominate the decision process. Steve Clark, an event driven manager, advises, you have to “trade within your emotional capacity.” Similarly, Joe Vidich, a long/short equity manager warns, “Limit your size in any position so that fear does not become the prevailing instinct guiding your judgment.”
In this sense, a smaller net exposure may actually yield better returns, even if the market ultimately moves in the favorable direction. For example, Martin Taylor, an emerging markets equities manager, came into 2008 with a very large net long exposure in high beta stocks in an increasingly risky market. Uncomfortable with the level of his exposure, Taylor sharply reduced his positions in early January. When the market subsequently plunged later in the month, he was well positioned to increase his long exposure.
Had Taylor remained heavily net long, he might instead have been forced to sell into the market weakness to reduce risk, thereby missing out in fully participating in the subsequent rebound. (more…)
Words of Wisdom from Colm O’Shea
In “Hedge Fund Market Wizards”, Jack Schwager interviews Colm O’Shea of Comac Capital. There are some great quotes in the interview and here are some of my favourites:
You need to implement a trade in a way that limits your losses when you are wrong, and you also need to be able to recognize when a trade is wrong.
… what strikes me about really good managers (is that) they don’t get attached to their ideas.
You need a method that suits your personality.
People who like trading because they like gambling are always going to be terrible at it. For these people, the trading books could be greatly shortened to the message: “Don’t trade. You are really bad at this. So just don’t do it.”
Traders who are successful over the long run adapt. If they do use rules, and you meet them 10 years later, they will have broken those rules. Why? Because the world has changed. (more…)