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Book Review: Priceless

  
  Education
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This book, Priceless: The Myth of Fair Value (and How to Take Advantage of It), covers rationality in decision making, and how markets and marketers take advantage of the deficiencies in rationality in average people.

There are many in the investment community that admire behavioral finance, and many who say that it might be true, but where are the big profits to be made from it?

This book doesn’t cover behavioral finance per se, but it does cover its analogue in pricing and marketing.  In a negotiation, the first person to put a price on the table tends to push the final price agreed to closer to his price.  Leaving aside no-haggle dealerships, why do car dealers post high prices for vehicles?  Because only a minority does the research to understand what the minimum price is that a dealer will accept.  The rest pay more, often a lot more.  Personally, I do a lot of research before I buy a car, and it helps me spot dealer errors in pricing.

The book is replete with examples of how there is no “fair” way to price things out.  What are the proper damages for a jury settlement?  The attorney for the plaintiff is incented to come up with the highest believable amount for the jury, because they will render a verdict less than that.  Make the ceiling as high as possible, and the plaintiff will get more.

We call placing the first price on the table “anchoring,” because it pulls the final result toward itself.  The book is filled with experiments dealing with anchoring.

The book also spends a lot of time on the “ultimatum game,” where a person gets $10, and must offer some of it to a second person, but if the second person turns him down, the first person gets nothing.  The main lesson here is that pride is stronger than greed.  Yes, it can be construed as a question of fairness, but when someone gives up money to deny money to someone else, it is not fairness but envy.  Why pay to make someone else worse off?  To teach him a lesson?  What an expensive lesson.

Much of this book was a walk down memory lane for me.  I discovered Kahneman and Tversky in the Fall of 1982, and I found their ideas to be more cogent than much of the “individuals maximize utility” cant that was commonly heard from most professors teaching microeconomics.  People are far more complex than homo oeconomicus.  Small surprise that most tests of microeconomics as a system are not confirmed by the data.

Kahneman and Tversky showed via a wide array of examples that the decisions people make are affected by the way they are presented to them.  People can be manipulated in limited ways in order to affect the decisions that they make. (more…)

The Artist and the Trader

  
  Education
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Art is for the Artist. Words must be written, Songs must be sung. Visions must be seen. Not because they are valued; but because they are Ideas. The Artist understands that wealth, true wealth as opposed to simply being rich, stems from Ideas. Great Art is valued, if valued properly, because they express an Idea well. Not always because they express a grand idea.

There is the modern myth that the Artist must not be materialist or wealthy. Whereas the Trader, as an Artist, knows that all Artists are wealthy, but all are not rich. It would seem that a great Trader and the Artist share a similar soul.

For they both :

Take a loss. The modern myth largely stems from the Artist producing their best Ideas to bounce back from a loss. They both believe they can replace their losses with better Ideas.

Respect everyone. An Idea can come from anyone. Every trader has been on the wrong side of a trade against someone of much more limited means, brains and circumstances.

Generous souls. For if wealth comes from Ideas, Ideas can always flow. An Artist never will admit he is out of Ideas. Many only have one grand idea, but die thinking the next grand idea is around the corner.

There is never enough. If Ideas are wealth, Life is to be lived to its fullest. The trader that gives up simply to be rich and preserve their riches has given up on their Ideas. Like the Artist that has sold out, simply producing copies of his once great work. Their admitting that it was either great timing or luck; not skill and belief that their Ideas still matter.

Free souls. Comes from the empowerment of wealth coming from your thoughts.

Drawn to excess. Because Ideas are regenerative, its tempting to believe everything is. Like the young that are blind to time. Or the athlete that believes there is always another game, tomorrow.

Characteristics of Profitable Traders

  
  Education
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They are experienced – Probably the most horrifying and worst myth shot out to anyone considering trading for a living is that you will compound millions in an extremely short amount of time. The only true way to make every day profitable comes through experience, and countless hours learning is crucial to longevity of success.

They know the damage they are capable of – Notice I didn’t say potential or profits here. The best traders I know of understand their limits, and seem to focus more on what can go wrong than what can go right. They are not easily convinced of lucrative outcomes, and have a very high sense of self-awareness.

They trade to make money, not to be right – They understand the strengths and possible pitfalls of what it is they do for a living, and use that knowledge to curb their emotional output.

They have an edge and know how to use it – They understand that without it they wouldn’t last long

They have a gameplan, and follow it explicitly – Each trade is planned and opportunities are scouted for before any trading takes place. They steer away from the killer of all killers: overtrading.

They manage risk – Regardless of how much conviction they have on a trade, they will still do what they can to avoid the potential of any losses and understand rule #1 about trading: anything can happen.

They work obsessively – They follow each turn, each piece of info that comes out in regards to their trade, and follow any underlying information relevant to failure or success.

They only access the best information – Information rules in trading, and having some of the best translates to money. Using the wrong information leads to failure.

They think about the trade, not the money behind it – Focusing on money can destroy your means to objectively assess the trade itself.

They are constantly learning – Just when you think you know it all about trading, a new curveball gets thrown your way, not to mention there are continued means and methods to be learned about making money. Even the most highly successful trader I ever knew, a multi-billion dollar portfolio manager, has a team of fundamentalists and technicians come in to train and retrain himself and his traders.

They are active – Activity sparks creativity, a very crucial part of trading.

They have patience – They understand that the money will come, but everything needs to be in place, first.

Not A One Way Train

  
  Education
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Words of wisdom from Dave Landry’s new book, The Layman’s Guide To Trading Stocks:

Wall Street Myth 1: The market always goes up longer term

It seems to be universally preached that the market “always goes up longer term.” And, all you have to do is buy a diversified mutual fund or index fund and wait. The problem is that markets do not always go up longer term. Well, I suppose it all depends on what you mean by longer term.

Suppose you bought stocks in 1929 at the market peak. Provided you could have held through a 90% loss, it would then have taken you a quarter of a century just to get back to breakeven.

Let’s say you bought stocks in the mid-1960’s. Your return would have been almost zero until the market finally broke out in 1983, which was 17 years later.

When I began this chapter, I was concerned that there might be a “that was then, this is now” mentality. After all, the benchmark S&P 500 wasn’t far below breakeven from the 2000 peak. I thought I was going to have to make a strong case for not buying and holding. Unfortunately for the buy and hold crowd, the market made my case for me. The bear market that began in late 2007 would turn out to be the worst since 1929. By March 2009, the S&P was at 13-year lows. From these lows, the market will have to rally over 200 percent just to get to breakeven.

At more than one cocktail party, I have had people laugh in my face when I tell them that the market can go 25 years or more without going up. This has made for some heated discussions and awkward social situations. I have since learned from Dale Carnegie and my wife Marcy to just nod my head and enjoy my drink. Do not take my word for it, just look at the charts and grab me a Black and Tan while you are at it!

Why traders wins & loses

  
  Education
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WIN-LOSE

Why traders wins

1. Develop specific procedures.
2. Have a defined operational methodology.
3. Understand how your trading system works.
4. Be sufficiently capitalized.
5. Don’t take quick profits.
6. Begin using a system after it draws down.
7. Be willing to accept consecutive losses.
8. Don’t think too much.
9. Don’t set specific price target.
10. Don’t believe the tight stop loss myth.
11. Play your own game-avoid the news.

Why traders loses

1. Lack of defined methodology.
2. Poor self control and discipline.
3. Information overload.
4. Riding losses.
5. Taking profit quickly.
6. Poor understanding of system basics.
7. Lack of consistency.
8. Too emotional and suggestible.
9. Too close the makes.
10. Can’t accept more than a few consecutive losses.

Thoughts on Short Selling

  
  Education
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  • Never short based on price action. A stock that is going straight up can continue at least until you are bankrupt before falling to the ground.
  • Never short based on valuation. A stock might be expensive at 100 times earnings and it will be even more expensive at 200 times earnings.
  • Unless you are hedging, your short positions should be 1/3 the size of your long positions.
  • Believe it or not, short stocks that have high short interest. In general, short squeezes are a myth and stocks that have high short interest are usually shorted for a reason.
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