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Why Warren Buffett should be your role model

WBSome people have claimed that Warren Buffett made all his money from the 80’s and 90’s bull market. He happened to be at the right place at the right time, they say.

If so, how come nobody came close? There were lots of people at the right place and right time like Buffett. They are what we call baby boomers!

It really isn’t about bull markets that Buffett made his money. He started out in the early 70’s. (The secular bull market started over 10 years after that).

The first few years, he was making 50-100% returns per year.

So if he were to do a redo, his results wouldn’t be that much different 40 years later.

The 7-Trading Rules

Here are the rules – they are not unique or new. They are time tested and successful investor approved. Like Mom’s chicken soup for a cold – the rules are the rules. If you follow them you succeed – if you don’t, you don’t.

1) Sell Losers Short: Let Winners Run:

It seems like a simple thing to do but when it comes down to it the average investor sells their winners and keeps their losers hoping they will come back to even.

2) Buy Cheap And Sell Expensive:

You haggle, negotiate and shop extensively for the best deals on cars and flat screen televisions. However, you will pay any price for a stock because someone on television told you too. Insist on making investments when you are getting a “good deal” on it. If it isn’t – it isn’t, don’t try and come up with an excuse to justify overpaying for an investment. In the long run – overpaying will end in misery.

3) This Time Is Never Different:

As much as our emotions and psychological makeup want to always hope and pray for the best – this time is never different than the past. History may not repeat exactly but it surely rhymes awfully well.

4) Be Patient:

As with item number 2; there is never a rush to make an investment and there is NOTHING WRONG with sitting on cash until a good deal, a real bargain, comes along. Being patient is not only a virtue – it is a good way to keep yourself out of trouble.

5) Turn Off The Television:

Any good investment is NEVER dictated by day to day movements of the market which is merely nothing more than noise. If you have done your homework, made a good investment at a good price and have confirmed your analysis to correct – then the day to day market actions will have little, if any, bearing on the longer-term success of your investment. The only thing you achieve by watching the television from one minute to the next is increasing your blood pressure.

6) Risk Is Not Equal To Your Return:

Taking RISK in an investment or strategy is not equivalent to how much money you will make. It only relates to the permanent loss of capital that will be incurred when you are wrong. Invest conservatively and grow your money over time with the LEAST amount of risk possible.

7) Go Against The Herd:

The populous is generally right in the middle of a move up in the markets but they are seldom right at major turning points. When everyone agrees on the direction of the market due to any given set of reasons – generally something else happens. However, this also cedes to points 2) and 4); in order to buy something cheap or sell something at the best price – you are generally buying when everyone is selling and selling when everyone else is buying.

These are the rules. They are simple and impossible to follow for most. However, if you can incorporate them you will succeed in your investment goals in the long run. You most likely WILL NOT outperform the markets on the way up but you will not lose as much on the way down. This is important because it is much easier to replace a lost opportunity in investing – it is impossible to replace lost capital.

As an investor, it is simply your job to step away from your “emotions” for a moment and look objectively at the market around you. Is it currently dominated by “greed” or “fear?” Your long-term returns will depend greatly not only on how you answer that question, but how you manage the inherent risk.

 
 

“The investor’s chief problem – and even his worst enemy – is likely to be himself.” – Benjamin Graham

 

10 Trading one Liners

  • Correct knowledge and the ability to change behavior are the most important parts of successful trading.
  • It has taken years to understand that being wrong is what trading is all about.
  • Trading is not taking long to look at a trade.
  • Losing never stopped her from staying with her plan as she knew how to lose small and go with her program.
  • If you can’t EXECUTE in getting in, you sure can’t execute to get out.
  • A trained trader understands success as “You lose good and you’re wrong small.”
  • Learn from others’ mistakes, and it is cheaper than learning from your own mistake
  • In your trading you will find you do not ever control the market but only your position
  • You can stop (remove) your position wherever YOU want!
  • I have often said the BIG money is on the surprise side.
  • Simple Rule for Traders

    Would you like to get someone to hand you all their money?

    No, you don’t need a gun.

    You don’t need to blackmail or kidnap anyone.

    I swear that what I’m about to show you is NOT Illegal!

    I guarantee that this article will change everything you have heard, seen or tried in stock market trading.

    This is the best lesson you will ever learn in stock market trading.

    Trading is part rational and part emotional. People often act on an impulse even if they know they have harmed themselves time and time again in the process of so doing. A winning trader becomes too confident about his positions and misses sell signals. A fearful trader beaten up by the market becomes too fearful and sells too early. When he sees the stock immediately rise again, overshooting his original profit target, he can no longer stand the pain of missing the rally and buys way above his original entry point. The stock stalls and slides and he watches in horror as it sinks like a rock. In the end, he can’t take any more pain and sells out for a loss—right near the bottom. The original plan to buy may have been rational, but actually executing on his plan created an emotional storm.

    Emotional traders do not pursue their best long-term interests. They are too busy bragging about a winning position and how smart they were for buying a stock or complaining and coming up with conspiracy theories about a losing position.

    Your goal is to take money from emotional amateur traders. (more…)

    3 Types of Confidence

    I see three types of confidence among traders:

    First, is what I call ‘false confidence’ That’s the person who talks big and poses like a big shot. This type of person often takes big risks in an effort to either impress others or to assuage their own discomfort, and the results can be terrible.

    Next, there is temporary confidence, which is conditional on recent performance. This is the person whose self-esteem is tied to their account equity or P&L. When on a good run, they feel confident and take larger risks (often the prelude to giving it all back). And when performance is lousy they start grasping at anything, maybe exiting winners prematurely or taking on excessive risk to get their money back.

    Finally, we have true confidence. This is confidence that does not depend on recent results. It is based on a deep sense of inner trust. This is the person who has a history of doing the right thing, regardless of the outcome. Doing the right thing in the sense that they act in their own best interest and trust and understand that doing such over time has a positive impact on results. The trust runs deep enough to provide resilience in the face of disappointment. This is true self-confidence, the kind you want in trading and in life.

    Almost everyone says that discipline is a requirement to succeed in trading. But most people never talk about what really underlies that type of discipline. The answer……true self-confidence.

    The algos are bearish

    WSJ story says trend-following algos have sold

    Trend-following investment strategies-a computer-based way of trading that has become a major force in some markets-have gone from bullish to bearish to a degree not seen in a decade, according to AlphaSimplex Group.

    The WSJ writes about how algos are an increasingly big part of investment decisions and that they’re still uniformly bearish.

    I’m skeptical of this kind of thing, because how is  AlphaSimplex Group supposed to know what the algos at Renaissance or Bridgewater are doing? At best, they’re guessing.

    Anyway, the story is some interesting reading.

    Observation, Experience, Memory and Mathematics

    “Observation, experience, memory and mathematics – these are what the successful trader must depend on. He must not only observe but remember at all times what he has observed. He cannot bet on the unreasonable or the unexpected, however strong his personal convictions may be about man’s unreasonableness or however certain he may feel that the unexpected happens very frequently. He must bet always on probabilities – that is, try to anticipate them. Years of practice at the game, of constant study, of always remembering, enable the trader to act on the instant when the unexpected happens as well as when the expected comes to pass.

    “A man can have great mathematical ability and an unusual power of accurate observation and yet fail in speculation unless he also possesses the experience and the memory. And then, like the physician who keeps up with the advances of science, the wise trader never ceases to study general conditions, to keep track of developments everywhere that are likely to affect or influence the course of the various markets. After years of the game it becomes a habit to keep posted. He acts almost automatically. He acquires the invaluable professional attitude that enables him to beat the game – at times! (more…)

    Reduce Your Trading Loss

    Trading is an evolutionary process. Nobody can wake up being a Master Trader. Unfortunately there is no book or magic trick that can turn you into the highly profitable trader. Although the belief and the hope to obtain those skills instantly is still in place.

    The statistics say that only the ones with the self-dedication and discipline succeed in this business.

    The most common mistakes leading to losses:

    -Trading against the market;

    -No trade potential;

    -No serious buyers or sellers in the stock;

    -Wide stop-loss;

    -Fear of loss. (more…)

    Traders-Are You Guilty?

    1. re you trading without a plan? Trading without a plan makes you emotional and a gambler.
    2. Do you ever trade too big for your trading account size? Big trades are bad trades for the emotional engagement and risk of ruin that they entail over the long term.
    3. Do you risk losing more if you are wrong than you will make if you are right? The biggest driver of profitability in your trading will be big wins and small losses. Big losses and small wins is a sure path to losing your trading capital.
    4. Have you traded without studying charts to see what has happened historically with similiar price patterns? If you do your homework you can make money understanding possibilities and probabilities from past patterns. Trading your own opinions will usually put you on the wrong side of the market. 
    5. Did you trade a system before you back-tested it?Or are you just trading blindly?
    6. Have you ever exited a trade due to fear instead of due to hitting your stop loss or trailing stop? The right exit is what determines your profitability and whether your win is a big one or your loss is a big one.
    7. Have you ever entered a trade becasue of greed without an entry signal? Chasing a trade after the trend is over is a great way to lose money consistently and quickly.
    8. Have you ever copied someone else’s trade not knowing their time frame or position size? Ultimately you have to trade your own system and your own method that matches your own personality and risk tolerance. Only you can make yourself profitable with faith in yourself and your method.
    9. Are you that person that loves to short during market up trends and miss a whole up move?The easy money is on the side of the trend in your time frame going against the trend is a great way to lose money.
    10. Are you that knife catcher that keeps going long at the worn time in a down trend? When everyone is exiting a market that is the worst time to be getting long as wave after wave of holders are leaving. 
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