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Market changes mind like a girl changes clothes

  
  Education
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changingcloth

The current market is unique. It has never been so volatile; therefore the danger and the opportunities have never been so plentiful. No one has ever traded in such market, so past knowledge and experience may only be a hinder to adopt faster in the new environment. No system is profitable all the time and traders with 20+ years of profitable track record are in the process of realizing that. In time of extreme changes survives the one, who is more flexible, not the stronger one.

Conventional wisdom will bring you only losses. You have to learn to think out of the box. Conventional wisdom says that in bear markets you should be only short or neutral. In case you absolutely have to have long positions in your portfolio, you should choose among the stocks with highest relative strength – the ones that somehow managed to weather the storm. Wrong.

Market is so volatile that it takes stops out on a regular basis, shaking out both long and short swing traders. Percentage stop losses don’t work in this environment. If you are going to survive and thrive, you need to decrease your trading horizon and the size of your trading. I remember that about a year ago, I found out that many, who were swing traders at the beginning of their careers at some point switched to day trading. I wondered why and started asking questions.

Markets are made from people. In theory everyone could be profitable if there is a continuous flow of fresh money into the market. Recently this has not been the case. Someone has to lose. In order to be profitable you need to follow a very simple rule – to buy only what you could sell later at higher price and to sell short only what you could buy later at lower price. Like the owner of a small shop, you should not buy inventory that you personally like, but stuff that could easily be sold this season. Yes, stock traders are in the retail business and their products are called stocks. I realize how unscrupulous such way of thinking may sound and that it contradicts the initial purpose the market were created, but this is the reality.
Initially markets were created:

  • To offer an alternative exit strategy (therefore motivation) for entrepreneurs;
  • To provide new means of cheaper financing for business’ expansion;
  • To allow ordinary citizens, who don’t have the idea, the will or the necessary capital to start their own business, with the opportunity to participate effectively in the economic growth of the country/the world.

All those things don’t matter anymore. Markets have long turned into a speculation arena, where everyone tries to outsmart the other.

HEDGE FUND LEGEND: If One Of My Managers Is Getting Divorced, I'll Pull My Money Out-Must Watch Video

  
Education, Video
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The Washington Post has obtained footage of hedge funder Paul Tudor Jones from a panel discussion at the University of Virginia last month with fellow fund managers John Griffin and Julian Robertson. 

 During the panel discussion, PTJ made some comments that the biggest killers to trading success are divorce and women having babies.  

Here’s what he does when on of his manager’s is going through a divorce: 

“… Like, one of my No. 1 rules as an investor is as soon as my manager, if I find out that manager is going through divorce, redeem immediately.  Because the emotional distraction that comes from divorce is so overwhelming. The idea that you could think straight for 60 seconds and be able to make a rational decision is impossible, particularly when their kids are involved. You can automatically subtract 10 to 20% from any manager if he is going through divorce.” 

Watch the video below: Don’t Miss to WATCH 

[ooyala_video_embed ec=0yZmF1YjqbuW2Cm-89PlfzfaswMrngJf][/ooyala_video_embed]

Traders should remember these points

  
  Education
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  • Kill your greed
  • Isolate yourself from the opinions of others
  • Never chase stocks
  • Always strive for emotional detachment
  • Focus on proper execution
  • There is never a shortage of opportunities
  • Never make excuses
  • Stay in control
  • Don’t compare yourself to others
  • Always use stop losses
  • Standing aside is a position
  • Money comes in bunches
  • Never add to a losing position
  • Stay calm and focused
  • Don’t believe the hype
  • Cultivate independent thinking
  • Be ready for worst case scenarios
  • Nosce te ipsum – Know thyself

Technically Yours/ASR TEAM

A Decalogue of Canons for observation in practical life

  
Education, Life
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1. Never put off till tomorrow what you can do to-day.
2. Never trouble another for what you can do yourself.
3. Never spend your money before you have it.
4. Never buy what you do not want, because it is cheap; it will be dear to you.
5. Pride costs us more than hunger, thirst and cold.
6. We never repent of having eaten too little.
7. Nothing is troublesome that we do willingly.
8. How much pain have cost us the evils which have never happened.
9. Take things always by their smooth handle.
10. When angry, count ten, before you speak; if very angry, an hundred.

Don't Let Negative Emotions Control You

  
  Education
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Successful traders do not allow negative emotions to affect their decision-making. Trading is a stressful process, and you will experience many setbacks. Expect them, however, and don’t see losses as indications that you will never succeed. Instead, be prepared to identify your negative reactions and act on them in positive ways.

Successful traders turn fear into gain. They realize that losses are a part of their business, and they expect them. But while they know that some trades will cost them money, they let those same trades become a gain in knowledge. Remember that each time you have a loss, this gives you some guidelines on how to alter your strategy. Perhaps your stop loss needs to be set higher, perhaps you need to alter how you identify trends, or perhaps you need to use new indicators.

The key point is to remember to turn fear of loss into anticipation of learning. Otherwise, your fear can cause you to forget to ask why that trade was unsuccessful and, in the worst cases, to unwisely overtrade to try to compensate for your loss.

Along similar lines, successful traders do not blame anyone or anything for their losses. They accept their setbacks and refuse to dwell on them. Instead, they learn from their mistakes and move on with their trading. Focusing on blame can cause you to feel insecure and lead you to make unwise trades to compensate for your losses. Or you may feel a desire for revenge against some non-existent enemy that “caused” your loss. Both of these emotions will distract you from your real goal of understanding how to revise your strategy based on what you learned from this trade.

21 Quotes for Traders

  
  Education
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1. “Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn’t do than by the ones you did do.” ~ Mark Twain

2. “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” ~ John Maynard Keynes.

3. “I never buy at the bottom and I always sell too soon.” ~ Baron Rothschild

4. “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?” ~ John Maynard Keynes

5. “Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy; profit from folly rather than participate in it.” ~ Warren Buffett

6. “It is not our duty as speculators to be on the bull side or the bear side but upon the winning side.” ~ Jessie Livermore in Edwin Lefevre’s Reminiscences of a Stock Operator

7. “The  principles of successful speculation are based on the supposition that people will continue in the future to make the mistakes that they made in the past.” ~ Thomas F. Woodlock

8. “It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It was always my sitting tight. Got that?” ~ Mr. Partridge in Edwin Lefevre’s Reminiscences of a Stock Operator

9. “They say you never grow poor taking profits. No, you don’t.  But neither do you grow rich taking a four-point profit in a bull market.” ~ Jessie Livermore in Edwin Lefevre’s Reminiscences of a Stock Operator

10. “Remember that prices are never too high for you to begin buying or too low to begin selling.  But after the initial transaction, don’t make a second unless the first shows you a profit.” ~ Jessie Livermore in Edwin Lefevre’s Reminiscences of a Stock Operator

11. “A loss never bothers me after I take it. I forget it overnight. But being wrong – not taking the loss – that is what does the damage to the pocketbook and the soul.” ~ Jessie Livermore in Edwin Lefevre’s Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (more…)

4 Rules from Great Traders

  
  Education
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Overcome Fear :Great  traders know that fear can choke our decision process and cause us to avoid taking risks.Fear also can paralyze you when you need to act quickly and decisively to save yourself from danger-the deer-in -the-headlights syndrome.All great traders have mastered their fears and are able to act decisively when needed.

Remain Flexible :As a trader ,you never know which stock or which market may make a move.This is the essence of uncertainty.Your don’t know what is going to happen.When you don’t know what is going to happen ,the best strategy is to be ready for anything.

Prepare to be wrong :If you don’t know what the future will bring and you choose a trade that assumes a particular outcome,you are possibly going to be wrong.Depending on the type of trade,in many cases it can even be more likely that you will lose money then that you will win money.What matters in the end is total money won and lost ,not whether you are right more ofthen then wrong.Great Traders are comfortable making decisions when they know they could be wrong .

Focus on decisions ,not out comes :One of the reasons that great raders can so easily reverse course is that they have a more sophisticated view of the meaning of error for decisions made under uncertainty.They understand that the face that things did not turn out the way they had hoped does not necessarily mean that taking the trade was a mistake.They know that many times good ideas dont’t work out.The very presence of uncertanity ensures that you will be wrong some of the time.All great traders put trades on for a particular reason ,and they take them off for a particular reason too.Great traders focus on the reasons for the trades instead of the outcomes for few given trades.

What's The Real Purpose of Trading?

  
  Education
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purpose-realThe real purpose of trading is not to make money. If that’s your goal you probably struggle with it a lot. But all of the following tend to work.

If you goal is to be a great trader, then you probably will do well.

If you goal is to use trading as a way to measure your self-development, then you will probably do well.

If you just love trading and that’s why you do it, then as long as you are willing to work on yourself you will probably do well.

Those, in my experience, are the key motivations that bring success in trading.

The Zurich Axioms – Forecasts Predictions And Prophets

  
  Education
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Here’s what Max Gunther, author of ‘The Zurich Axioms’ has to say:

The Zurich Axioms: ‘On Forecasts’, page 62:

Human behavior cannot be predicted. Distrust anyone who claims to know the future, however dimly.

‘Speculative Strategy’:
The Fourth Axiom tells you not to build your speculative program on a basis of forecasts, because it won’t work. Disregard all prognostications. In the world of money, which is a world shaped by human behavior, nobody has the foggiest notion of what will happen in the future. Mark that word. Nobody.
Of course, we all wonder what will happen, and we all worry about it. But to seek escape from that worry by leaning on predictions is a formula for poverty. The successful speculator bases no moves on what supposedly will happen but reacts instead to what does happen. (more…)

New Trading Rules for Traders

  
  Education
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Play to win, not for a score. Traders who desire only to make money versus simply trying to trade well and their best ability will struggle. This is a money-focused game, but trading well requires you to focus on goals beyond the money to achieve the performance you really desire.

Recognize a real gamble. When you are trading well, take the possibility of a major loss out of the equation whenever you can. It is true, when we are the most vulnerable is when everything is going right and it seems like we can do no wrong. Moreover, there are times to make the big aggressive trade, and times when doing so is foolhardy. Recognizing the difference is so very important.

Root hard for yourself. When everything goes wrong, the quickest way to turn it around is to force yourself to be optimistic and enthusiastic. Even after making the so-so trades which only pay out puny returns, you’ve got to pat yourself on the back and slowly gain your confidence back. confidence is everything in trading and you need a steady supply of reassuring confidence to trade at your very best.

Forget the holes up ahead. Focus on today’s trade, not the next one or the one you think you see is falling into place weeks from now. As Hunter recommends, “You really have to stay in the present.” Traders often let big picture themes and views prevent them from seeing setups that occur daily. This tunnel vision can really limit overall returns. Find the next trade, focus on that trade, and after that, move to the next. Don’t let issues you see so far down the road prevent you from making profits today.

The right way to play safe. If you play chicken, you’ll invite bad trades and disaster. As others have said, you’ve always got to trade to win, instead of trading not to lose. There’s a tremendous difference. I know traders who try to hedge every trade they make and ultimately don’t achieve the returns they should. If your approach is sound, hedging should only be a tool to use sparingly, not as an entire strategy substitute or for protecting your ego when you are wrong.

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