- Psychology: Trading is a miserable experience if your very self worth hangs on your every trade. You must separate your ego from your trading, you do not want wins to make you too happy or losses too make you depressed. In trading you are a business man, you are using capital to create more capital. When you lose money on a trade it has nothing to do with you if you followed your trading plan, the market was simply not conducive to a profit with your system, nothing more, it isn’t personal. Separate your ego from your trading.
- Risk Management: If you want to be successful in trading you have to avoid the risk of ruin. If you risk 2% of your trading capital per trade and you lose ten times in a row then you are down 20%, you need a 25% return to get back to even, you can do that. If you risk 10% of your capital per trade and lose ten times in a row you are at $0 and ruined. If you trade long enough you will have ten losses in a row, plan to stay in business after this happens. Carefully control what you lose.
- Method: You need to trade a method that fits your personality and is proven to win over the long term. Some people love to trade growth stocks, they need to find a method that is a proven winner and trade it. They will need to quantify what can be on their watch list, position size of each trade, and define entries and exits along with initial stop losses. Most importantly stick with the system so they will be trading it when it wins big. Each trader has to find the market they want to specialize in and become an expert. Before trading a system they need to look at the systems historical performance with some form of back testing. Find a winning method that fits your personality and trade it and it alone.
Archives of “money” tag
rssRisk and Personalization
First, I would say that risk management is the most important thing to be well understood. Undertrade, undertrade, undertrade is my second piece of advice. Whatever you think your position ought to be, cut it at least in half. My experience with novice traders is that they trade three to five times too big. They are taking 5 to 10 percent risks on a trade when they should be taking 1 to 2 percent risks.
A common mistake is to think of the market as a personal nemesis. The market, of course, is totally impersonal; it doesn’t care whether you make money or not. Whenever a trader says, “I wish,” or “I hope,” he is engaging in a destructive way of thinking because it takes attention away from the diagnostic process.
Ten Reasons – Trading Long Option Strangles
A long strangle is long one call at a higher strike and long one put at a lower strike in the same expiration and on the same stock. Such a position makes money if the stock price moves up or down well past the strike prices of the strangle. There are higher costs and risks with these strategies, as I discuss below.
Strangles are low risk plays, one side of the options will go up in value when the other side goes down in value the majority of the time.
- If one side becomes worthless it generally means the other side is worth a lot.
- You can make money on strangles even when you do not know which way the market will move.
- It is much less stressful to hold a position with a hedge in place.
- The big risks are transferred from the option buyer to the option seller in this play.
- Strangles lose small with small movements but win big when there is a big move. The are asymmetrical in their construction.
- When one side of the option sellers blow up their account due to an outsized move you will be on the other side of them and be the trader their capital flows to.
- Strangles can be played on any time frame.
- With the strangles the winning side has a growing delta and the losing side has a shrinking delta.
- Strangles can be used to capture trends, volatility, and reversals.
Where is the risk? (more…)
What is Money
I came across the nugget of wisdom last night in Farmer Boy.
He waited till Father stopped talking and looked at him.
“What is it, son?” Father asked.
Almanzo was scared. “Father,” he said.
“Well, son?”
“Father,” Almanzo said, “would you–would you give me–a nickel?”
He stood there while Father and Mr. Paddock looked at him, and he
wished he could get away.
“What for?”
Almanzo looked down at his moccasins and muttered:
“Frank had a nickel. He bought pink lemonade.”
“Well,” Father said, slowly, “if Frank treated you, its’ only right
you should treat him.” Father put his hand in his pocket. Then he
stopped and asked:
“Did Frank treat you to lemonade?”
Almanzo wanted so badly to get the nickel that he nodded. Then he
squirmed and said:
“No, Father.”
Father looked at him a long time. Then took out his wallet and opened
it, and slowly he took out a round big silver half-dollar. He asked:
“Almanzo, do you know what this is?”
“Half a dollar,” Almanzo answered.
“Yes. But do you know what half a dollar is?”
Almanzo didn’t know it was anything but half a dollar.
“It’s work, son,” Father said. “That’s what money is; it’s hard work.”
……
“How much do you get for half a bushel of potatoes?”
“Half a dollar,” Almanzo said.
“Yes,” said Father. “That’s what’s in this half-dollar, Almanzo. The work that raised half a bushel of potatoes is in it.”Almanzo looked at the round piece of money that Father held up. It looked small, compared to all that work.”You can have it, Almanzo,” Father said. Almanzo could hardly believe his ears. Father gave him the heavy half dollar.”It’s yours,” said Father. “You could buy a suckling pig with it, if you want to. You could raise it and it would raise a litter of pigs,worth four, five dollars apiece. Or you can trade that half-dollar for lemondade, and drink it up. You do as you want, it’s your money.”
Knight's Trading loss
Going around Wall Street last week….
Knight lost $440mil in ~45 minutes
That works out to ~$9.8mil a minute
Just for an idea of the speed at which they lost the money… they were losing money FASTER than the entire S&P was making it! (and we’re just talking Revs here not net income!)
The 500 names in the S&P made $5.06T in the trailing 12 months
Here is the math…
S&P trailing 12 Revs $5,062,957,971,936
per day $13,871,117,731
per hour $577,963,239
per min $9,632,721
Knight loss $440,000,000
per minute $9,777,778
Trading Wisdom-One Liners
- Look at your trading as a series of probabilities, don’t focus on any single profit or loss.
- Want what the market wants.
- Do your homework. Come prepared to each day’s trading.
- Never take a trade on the open in the direction of a that day’s gap.
- Don’t risk too much of your trading capital on any single idea.
- Remain flexible.
- Believe what you see. If the market’s going up or down, it’s going up or down.
- Anything can happen. The wildness lies in wait.
- Verify your trading methods or systems.
- Caveat emptor (“Let the buyer beware.”) when buying a trading system or hiring a mentor.
- Your own personal psychology will express itself regardless of your chosen method.
- An opinion isn’t worth much, your own or someone else’s.
- Watch how the markets react to the news.
- Learn from your mistakes.
- Stay in the now. Don’t trade yesterday, today. Don’t trade tomorrow, today.
- Don’t worry about a missed opportunity. Another one is on the way. Besides there were several that just passed of which you were totally unaware.
- If you don’t risk, you can’t make money. If you lose all your trading capital, you can’t trade. Find balance.
- Markets don’t go in a single direction. The trend will wobble on it’s way to its destination.
- The trend is your friend. Unless you’re a counter trend trader, and then only it’s end is your friend.
- Tomorrow’s another day, a whole new trading opportunity. Be optimistic.
- Forgive yourself. Take the lesson, and move on.
21 Trading Quotes
1. “Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn’t do than by the ones you did do.” ~ Mark Twain 2. “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” ~ John Maynard Keynes. 3. “I never buy at the bottom and I always sell too soon.” ~ Baron Rothschild 4. “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?” ~ John Maynard Keynes 5. “Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy; profit from folly rather than participate in it.” ~ Warren Buffett 6. “It is not our duty as speculators to be on the bull side or the bear side but upon the winning side.” ~ Jessie Livermore in Edwin Lefevre’s Reminiscences of a Stock Operator 7. “The principles of successful speculation are based on the supposition that people will continue in the future to make the mistakes that they made in the past.” ~ Thomas F. Woodlock 8. “It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It was always my sitting tight. Got that?” ~ Mr. Partridge in Edwin Lefevre’s Reminiscences of a Stock Operator 9. “They say you never grow poor taking profits. No, you don’t. But neither do you grow rich taking a four-point profit in a bull market.” ~ Jessie Livermore in Edwin Lefevre’s Reminiscences of a Stock Operator 10. “Remember that prices are never too high for you to begin buying or too low to begin selling. But after the initial transaction, don’t make a second unless the first shows you a profit.” ~ Jessie Livermore in Edwin Lefevre’s Reminiscences of a Stock Operator 11. “A loss never bothers me after I take it. I forget it overnight. But being wrong – not taking the loss – that is what does the damage to the pocketbook and the soul.” ~ Jessie Livermore in Edwin Lefevre’s Reminiscences of a Stock Operator 12. “If a man didn’t make mistakes, he’d own the world in a month. But if he didn’t profit by his mistakes, he wouldn’t own a blessed thing.” ~ Jessie Livermore in Edwin Lefevre’s Reminiscences of a Stock Operator 13. “The man who is right always has two forces working in his favor – basic conditions and the men who are wrong. In a bull market bear factors are ignored.” ~ Jessie Livermore in Edwin Lefevre’s Reminiscences of a Stock Operator 14. [What advice would you give the novice trader?] – “First, I would say that risk management is the most important thing to be well understood. Undertrade, undertrade, undertrade is my second piece of advice. Whatever you think your position ought to be, cut it at least in half.” ~ Bruce Kovner in Jack Schwager’s Market Wizards 15. “There is probably no class of trades with a higher failure rate than impulsive trades.” Jack Schwager in Market Wizards 16. [What is the most important advice you could give the novice trader?] – “Trade small because that’s when you are as bad as you are ever going to be. Learn from your mistakes.” ~ Richard Dennis in Jack Schwager’s Market Wizards 17. “The elements of good trading are: (1) cutting losses, (2) cutting losses, and (3) cutting losses. If you can follow these three rules, you may have a chance.” ~ Ed Seykota in Jack Schwager’s Market Wizards 18. “Charting is a little like surfing. You don’t have to know a lot about the phsyics of tides, resonance, and fluid dynamics in order to catch a good wave. You just have to be able to sense when its’s happening and then have the drive to act at the right time.” ~ Ed Seykota in Jack Schwager’s Market Wizards 19. “I have two basic rules about winning in trading as well as in life: (1) If you don’t bet, you can’t win. (2) If you lose all your chips, you can’t bet.” ~ Larry Hite in Jack Schwager’s Market Wizards 20. “Perhaps the most important rule is to hold on to your winners and cut your losers. Both are equally important. If you don’t stay with your winners, you are not going to be able to pay for the losers.” ~ Michael Marcus in Jack Schwager’s Market Wizards 21. “Lose your opinion – not your money” ~ Unknown |
Five Market Scenarios
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Characteristic of losing trader
Losing traders spend a great deal of time forecasting where the market will be tomorrow. Winning traders spend most of their time thinking about how traders will react to what the market is doing now, and they plan their strategy accordingly.
CONCLUSION:
Success of a trade is much more likely to occur if a trader can predict what type of crowd reaction a particular market event will incur. Being able to respond to irrational buying or selling with a rational and well thought out plan of attack will always increase your probability of success. It can also be concluded that being a successful trader is easier than being a successful analyst since analysts must in effect forecast ultimate outcome and project ultimate profit. If one were to ask a successful trader where he thought a particular market was going to be tomorrow, the most likely response would be a shrug of the shoulders and a simple comment that he would follow the market wherever it wanted to go. By the time we have reached the end of our observations and conclusions, what may have seemed like a rather inane response may be reconsidered as a very prescient view of the market.
Losing traders focus on winning trades and high percentages of winners. Winning traders focus on losing trades, solid returns and good risk to reward ratios.
CONCLUSION:
The observation implies that it is much more important to focus on overall risk versus overall profit, rather than “wins” or “losses”. The successful trader focuses on possible money gained versus possible money lost, and cares little about the mental highs and lows associated with being “right” or “wrong”.
Bankers never learn
The reason for the Recession — simplified.
A naked and drunken woman boards a cab in London one night.
The Gujju driver keeps staring and does not start the cab.
Woman : Haven’t you ever seen a naked woman before ???
Gujju Driver : I am not staring at you lady ….. just wondering where you kept money to pay !!
The Moral : That is what most of the American and European banks failed to do. (i.e.) Assessing repayment capacity before taking exposure !!!
Long live Gujju enterprise…