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US auctions off $38 billion of 3 year notes at 1.632%

That is below the WI level of 1.634%

  • high yield of 1.632%. That is below the WI of 1.634%
  • bid to cover 2.56x vs six-month average of 2.48x
  • Directs 23.8% vs six-month average of 16.8%
  • Indirects 49.1% vs six-month average of 49.5%
  • Dealers take 27.1% versus six-month average of 33.7%
Overall, decent demand. The yield stopped through the WI level by a touch. The bid to cover was higher than the six-month average. Dealers took down a relatively small amount suggesting decent demand.

2 Different Types of Entry Signals

Momentum Signals:

  1. This is buying into price strength.
  2. You buy high trying to sell higher or sell short low trying to cover even lower.
  3. You are buying a breakout of a range with the possibility that the break out level you bought becomes the new support.
  4. You are trading a trend of higher highs or lower lows.
  5. You are trading an asset under accumulation and the price is rising higher and higher as a trend continues.

Buying Support:

  1. You are buying weakness on the possibility that the low is in.
  2. You are buying oversold levels and believe that a snap back is imminent.
  3. You are buying pullbacks to key support levels in an uptrend.
  4. You are buying fear looking to sell it higher when an asset reverts to the mean.
  5. You are buying at technical levels that history shows presents a great risk/reward ratio and limited downside.

Money can be made buying dips and buying break outs. The keys to profitability lie in the winning percentage and the risk/reward ratio.

10 Signs You Might still be a New Trader

  1. New Traders do not understand what all the fuss is about risk management and trader psychology they do not need all that they are special.

  2. New Traders believe there is some magic trading method that always wins, they search for the Holy Grail of trading.
  3. New Traders do not understand that the very best traders have strings of losses , losing months, and sometimes even losing years. They think rich traders always win.
  4. New Traders want to know what is going up or down, they focus on tips instead of the mechanics of trading.
  5. New Traders hand out advice freely to others, good traders realize that decisions are based on individual methods and do not give out tips.
  6. New Traders are looking for that one big winning trade to go all in on, good traders are trading good systems that they risk 1% per trade on.
  7. New Traders confuse bull markets for skill.
  8. New Traders confuse luck for skill.
  9. New Traders want advice, good traders want robust systems.
  10. New Traders run from method to method and from mentor to mentor after every losing streak, good traders know exactly who they are and what methods they trade.

 

Six trading lessons from speculator Jesse Livermore

Stock operator’s reminiscences useful in today’s market

If you ask traders to choose the most influential trading book, more than likely, they’ll mention Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin LeFevre. This book describes the experiences of one of the world’s greatest stock speculators, Jesse Livermore.

Many of the anecdotal lessons included in the book are well known to experienced traders. For example: the market is always right; don’t over-trade; never argue with the tape; use stop losses, and always trade with the primary trend of the market.

Almost anyone can learn the mechanics of trading. It’s the psychological pitfalls that make trading one of the most challenging activities. No matter your skill level, it’s important to remember and obey the rules of engagement — another word for discipline.

With that in mind, this book contains dozens of important lessons. Here are a few of my favorites:

1. Learn how to lose

Livermore (speaking through the fictional character of Larry Livingston) complains how he’s made a series of trading mistakes that cost him a lot of money, although he wasn’t completely wiped out. The losses, he admits, were painful but educational:

“There is nothing like losing all you have in the world for teaching you what not to do,” he says. “And when you know what not to do in order not to lose money, you begin to learn what to do in order to win.”

After going broke three times in less than two years, Livermore has this advice: “Being broke is a very efficient educational agency.” He says that you learn little from your winners because they often take care of themselves. It’s the losers that will teach you lessons to last a lifetime. And as long as you don’t make the same mistake twice, you always have the opportunity to trade another day. (more…)

Goals reduce your current happiness

When you’re working toward a goal, you are essentially saying, “I’m not good enough yet, but I will be when I reach my goal.”

The problem with this mindset is that you’re teaching yourself to always put happiness and success off until the next milestone is achieved. “Once I reach my goal, then I’ll be happy. Once I achieve my goal, then I’ll be successful.”

SOLUTION: Commit to a process, not a goal. (more…)

A trader is the weakest link of any trading system

So true. Tony Robbins also said “Success for anything is 80% of psychology and 20% of mechanics”. A trading system is mechanics of trading. If a trader has an absolutely winning trading system, but he/she has failed to execute it. This system is failure. For who can follow it consistently, it is a great system. So who is more important? It is the trader or the system?

Some people say it is hard to design a winning system. Or I don’t know how to do? Does it really true? Read what Richard Dennis said.

The key is consistency and discipline. Almost anybody can make up a list of rules that are 80% as good as what we taught. What they can’t do is give (people) the confidence to stick to those rules even when things are going bad.

Richard Dennis has also proved that trading is a skill not talent. Tony Robbins also said “Every skill is learnable”

 

How bear markets affect our decision making

READ THIS NOWAs of this Friday, the S&P 500 has gone 980 days without a 10% decline, according to Birinyi Associates, the fifth-longest such stretch on record. This past week’s nervousness, set off by the insurgency in Iraq and the surprise defeat of U.S. Rep. Eric Cantor, is thus the perfect pretext for investors to think about what they will do when the market takes a serious beating.

For, sooner or later, it surely will—and those investors who have honestly prepared for it will stand the best chance of surviving unscathed. In a downturn, you won’t be the same investor that you are now—unless you rely on rules and procedures, rather than willpower alone, to regulate your behavior.

New research shows that the kind of stress brought on by a collapsing stock market fundamentally changes how people make financial decisions. (more…)

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